Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009
...CIRCULATION OF ANA HAS DISSIPATED...
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT ANA NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION AND HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ANA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES...225 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND
ABOUT 145 MILES...230 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE REMNANTS OF ANA ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24
MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A FEW SQUALLS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.5N 68.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/CANGIALOSI
Well, that forecaster is correct to raise the caution alert. I think that the possibility is definitely there for regeneration of Ana in the next 36 -48 hours, especially if the convective bursts keep occuring. Don't count out Ana yet!
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
Fun while it lasted.
I quoted u because u were totally on target; ignore button not for U!
It was very cool & lucky timing -- when Doc Masters came in w/his prediction re Cape Cod and Maine. Have friends on the Cape and will warn them. Still not sure about definition of "wishcasting" -- is that when you wish bad weather on someone else? Or hope to see it because it's an adrenaline rush?
I know blog is way busy so pls. forgive going off-topic. Hubby loves Italian, thnx. for recommendation. Don't know how we missed this one. Give me a heads-up the next time you're at NOAA...McGinty's Pub & Lebanese Taverna are fave. Thnx. again for welcome. Gotta' walk dogs...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009
...BILL HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST OR ABOUT 975 MILES...
1570 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY
41041 IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 46.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
Ana has dissipated
oh she'll be back.....
How true - lol !!
INDICATE THAT ANA NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION AND HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
It hasn't had a circulation for at least the last 24 hours....
I guess the 5 day map on Bill should put an end to ANY talk of it...going into the Caribbean or hitting Florida...
Indeed... and won't be surprised if that happens.
Now, thing could get interesting Winter weather wise if El Nino hangs on... in our southern states.
Until the NHC say all is well, I still will track this storm!
The Surgeon wipes the sweat from his forehead.......lol
the suffix "casting" seems to have infinite prefixes
Not sure what your LMAO about...Just call them as i see them.....
Admin! please this guy is killing me
I know you're not buying in to that.....lol
is Aug,Sept..
Some been saying for a spell,watch close in,this Aug and Sept,just ask the folks in Coral Gables about Claudettes Tornado yesterday
Looks like an eye is finally trying to build
I will always continue to watch Bill. I know the uncertainty of hurricane forecasting, but it alarms me when someone of Dr. Masters stature when he says he is concerned for Cape Cod and Maine. Bill has strengthened in pressure, just not in the winds. His pressure dropped 8mb since the last advisory.
LOL
Hey I live in TN and would love a good snow. If El Nino hangs around could we get it?
New England however is not out of the question.. Reminds me of Hurricane Edouard in 1996.
Looks like an eye is trying to form
I think you and I nailed the track.. Good job as always StormW!
Yes. I live in NC, more moisture just needs to catch the cold air. Should bring more moisture but air temp could be a problem at times.
Sorry StormW, I meant the western shift in Bill that a few are "predicting"? Nonsense.
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