Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I took a look at those surge maps... I'm far enough north of the worst-case scenario that I still remain unworried about flooding. The building I'm in would probably be demolished by the cat 5 winds, but flash flooding would be the only flooding concern.
I understand people's desire to live on a beautiful beach... I also think that to do so is a bad thing.
Well fortunately a Island dosent have a large enough coastline for a surge to Pile Up on,most of the energy is deflected around a Island..in Most cases,sav for bays and Inlets.
Gotcha.. Thanks - isn't that "unofficial" information though?
/concur
arg.
Hellloooo Newwwman ;)
Slight chance it gets a tad closer to the east coast. Will have to see if the models continue to show this over night.
A RECENT EXAMPLE OF THE GFS INSTABILITY IS ITS
HANDLING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONES CURRENTLY OVER THE ATLANTIC.
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO...THE GFS WAS DIRECTING AT LEAST ONE OF THESE
SYSTEMS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTERN STATES...WITH LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF THE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THE GUIDANCE
HAS FINALLY CONVERGED UPON CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
FINAL...
THE 12Z/17 ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z/17 EC ENSEMBLE MEAN DAYS 5
THROUGH 7...WITH A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST
DAY 5...AND LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING ALONG THE
CANADIAN/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER DAY 7. THE INCORPORATION OF A
SUBSTANTIAL CHUNK OF THE OLD MEAN IN THE UPDATE PACKAGE COVERED
THESE DIFFERENCES ADEQUATELY...SO MADE NO CHANGES FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE. THE GFS IS STILL NOT ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE TIMING
AND WAVELENGTH OF THE BIG TROUGH CROSSING THE EAST.
STORM SURGE
"The greatest potential for loss of life related to a hurricane is from the storm surge."
Storm surge is simply water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. This advancing surge combines with the normal tides to create the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level 15 feet or more. In addition, wind driven waves are superimposed on the storm tide. This rise in water level can cause severe flooding in coastal areas, particularly when the storm tide coincides with the normal high tides. Because much of the United States' densely populated Atlantic and Gulf Coast coastlines lie less than 10 feet above mean sea level, the danger from storm tides is tremendous.
A great storm to look at. A good storm to stay away from everyone.
38 cane was September 21st...Bill isn't going to slow down that much...speed up, in fact.
I think you are a full month off.
"Wave and current action associated with the tide also causes extensive damage. Water weighs approximately 1,700 pounds per cubic yard; extended pounding by frequent waves can demolish any structure not specifically designed to withstand such forces."
You and WS seem to have a 'special' relationship thats for sure. God I love this blog, man! LMAO
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 17/1500 UTC IS NEAR 14.1N 45.2W...OR ABOUT 1080 MILES/1735 KM TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BILL MAY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WED...
You are way too funny! Don't lose your sense of humor.
Its funny how much you look like our friend JFV.
http://74.125.47.132/search?q=cache:SdY5ib_9CFEJ:www.wunderground.com/wximage/viewsingleimage.html%3 Fmode%3Dsingleimage%26handle%3DJFV%26number%3D0+JFV+Weather+Underground&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
Every time they update the package the points move, giving the impression that the system always hits the points. I have however seen where the points are missed repeatedly especially late in the season when the track can become very hard to forecast and deviation can be significant in a short period of time between updates.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html
Recon just hit an area of 1011mb (pretty much the lowest they are finding so far), around 18.367N 67.450W. Interesting the wind dropped to nothing at the surface & below 10kt at ~500ft (flight level). No west wind yet..
I actually think that this comment section of the blog is only really here to ammuse Dr. Masters.
:) Back on topic now.
Ya think?
Busted!
Thnax for the clarification on that KMan..
I wasnt going near it..LOL
thanks!
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.8mb/ 47.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.1 3.2 3.9
I see it, he is a big red X.... lmao
I sure was liking the idea that the UKMET run was wrong, but that's one model that does tend to be out front.
If you don't feed a feral cat anything, it moves.
Good point to remind everyone of DestinJeff! Enjoy the rain this morning? Claudette didn't whip up much for winds in the FWB area.
Huh ??. Almost half of Grand Cayman was underwater during Ivan, including my living room that had 5 feet of salt water in it.
12Z Model Runs
18Z Model Runs
07:42 PM GMT del 17 Agosto 2009
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/NewEngSurge.asp
Jeff
Good afternoon!
LOL did I ruin it for you atmo?
Arrrghhh....
I've given you these for two years running now; please hang on to them, okay?
Model collection site
Now, if you would, please stop being abusive towards people like Drak, one of the more knowledgeable users of this site...if you must tell him to get bent, please do it in an email, or something, huh?
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