Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Cat Size dont mean Squat as Impacts Count.
The SSS is a POOR scale for Surge Potential and Hurricane Size.
And Size does Matter.
As IKE Showed us a Large CAt 2 can devastate easily.
The SSS was designed in the distant past and wasnt designed to relate Surge & Size potential.
I live in the Tampa area (Pinellas County) but I live in a "non-evacuation" zone which means that I will never fall under a mandatory evacuation from a hurricane. They determine the zones by storm category, not storm surge. So, how do I know if the surge would effect me? Can I go by my elevation to determine if surge is a threat?
Check out the NHC home page on "NHC to reference new experimental Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale"
Doing pretty good thanks, and trust the same is true for you. Bit of a lull now, so to speak so was just taking it easy LOL
Hey Flood! How's the man???
not sure if my copying this will work.... if it does.. where is all this moisture from claudette going?! it has been lingering off coast ALL day!
I thinks the system unravelled as it came ashore. The COC can be seen in this graphic well to the North. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200904_sat.html#a_topad
Definite Westward (Left) Shift from earlier today
so they found pink barbs the adt site could be right that 45mph
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.0 3.2 4.0
time/adt/odt02L.html
yes, very helpful. Saves me pulling the data from Tropical Atlantic LOL
SSS mainly designed for wind impact. Why they're redoing it.
If you live in a 'white' area on the evac map, this means your elevation is higher than 26 ft asl... which means you will not need to evacuate for storm surge.
If you live in a mobile home, however, get out...
If I lived in pinellas and something bigger than a cat 1 was headed my way, I'd cross the bridges into mainland FL and hunker down somewhere inland. Pinellas is mostly connected by bridges, and Hwy 19 could be toasted by a big storm as well... then you're stuck waiting on relief by air... I would prefer to avoid that situtation. Leave early and take your important valuables with you... pinellas's homeless population will loot everything.
Interesting info, when was the last time the Tampa Bay area received a major hurricane?
HH heading NW now. Hopefully, they'll go as far as the north coast of DR.
AMEN!
Any reports of how it goes there?
ShortWaveLoop
Looks like only about 1/2 inch of rain on PR thus far from ANA.
From the 11 a.m. NHC Discussion:
ANA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM GIVEN THE POOR DEFINITION OF THE CIRCULATION...
INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND POTENTIAL REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...
Link
OK....has not updated again yet
7544 and canesrule1:
First of all, no pink barbs have been found near where the NHC has the center. The pink barbs, which stand for 25 mph, were found SE of Puerto Rico. The pinks SE of PR are reddish pink, which stands for 25 mph, not the hot pink, which stands for 40 mph.
The UK does not help us. They are so far away, I think they forget about us! I suppose if we were in dire straight and asked they would come to the rescue and send us the bill later. The US would probably come to our aid a lot more quickly.
I live in a "white" area. In fact I'm at about 75' asl. That's why I was wondering about the surge. So, we should have to worry too much about flooding from surge?
Hey, DL, I'm good...waiting to see what these storms are are going to do...unlike a great amny in here, I don;t put much faith in 3-5 day forecasts...LOL
You plan by those you can get into ttrouble fast!
So, how are you? Where was your avatar photo taken? Looks familiar...
Not certain, but this may have been it
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_Tampa_Bay_hurricane
...I will check it out when it gets to the Antillea...that way I won't worry unnecessarily.....
Adding some new features, like commentin where you can log in wit your facebook, myspce, yahoo and etc. accounts, also you will be able to quote, do polls, and sometime we will probably be able to get our graphics up there and running regulary, blog will be updated and ready hopefully with everything else round 5:30!
In the mean time, you guys have a good one!
All is well, my friend. Only it's a bit busy here in Central Florida. The increased tropical activity has everyone asking preparedness questions. Some are actually asking NIMS/ICS questions. I'm glad they are thinking about it. :-)
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