Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
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We saw the same thing last night for a few hours where we saw a westward movement as well. There is a reason why the NHC releases a cone of uncertainty for hurricanes and not simply a line where they think it is going.
Just because it appears to be moving slightly west over a small period of time does not mean the NHC is wrong on their forecast. Meteorology is still an imperfect science. There may be a day when the NHC can predict with 100% certainty every wobble but we are no where near that point.
An unforeseen change is always possible.
I have to admit, I'm kind of on pins and needles today waiting to see just how close he'll get before the recurve. At his current speed, what time do you guys think we may be able to see if his direction is being heavily influenced by the weakness at 50W? I know there aren't any absolutes on this stuff... just looking for opinions.
sorry, I love the sfwmd site...they are right on point and have an incredible history with us south floridians....the emergency management team down here is awesome and they are always on point.
Link
ana rainbow
Drakoen, do you notice the two vortices?
They don't tend to flare up consitantly around a median area though
Absolutely no question about that.
Dog and Isabel though were both Category 5s.
Its obviously somewhat inflated but you could take it at face value as showing a low end cat 5.
Possible based on the sfc obs
what does HRWF stand for? Hypercane We're Really F***ed? lol
I will post HH obs., but on Google Earth, I have no obs. yet
the highest off of my memory is Camille (190mph), Mitch comes to mind to
My friend in Meterology told me she is also of the opinion it may be on the souther side of Hispaniola, however, the drier air to to SE should inhibit it, while to the North of the islands, the atmosphere is more conducive. She also told me there may be a surprising little twist on the latter advisories. It is definitely NOT official. They are re-thinking Ana's strength and future track as we speak.
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -68.86 LAT: 30.99 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.34 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):108.79
Funny you mention that as Camille 40 years ago tonight Impacted as a Cat 5 with a Recorded Wind Speed at the Seabee Base in Long Beach,Miss of 212mph when the anemometer Broke.
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -70.40 LAT: 30.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 904.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 133.00
I don't really know how defined the second one is since it is beneath the convection. The first vortex will move inland soon, and may weaken, causing the other to take over.
Thanks in advance.
According to the ADT estimates.
Yup...but do you think the SE of PR one.....where will it go, in your opinion?
Perhaps...latest surface observations are showing sharp shift in wind directions. I'll wait for another hour to confirm this, however.
Labor Day in the Keys I believe. Very little info about it though.
If it is the SE PR one then....we have to watch Ana-Banana (couldn't resist) more closely. It has a higher chance of emerging into the Bahamas.
You are correct as usual. However, they believe that at some point the sustained winds were in excess of 205. There were not official. P.S. Did you read my recent blog about the information which I received. I would like your opinion.
Really?!Link?
very true....but whatever she may be...a td, a open wave...whatever...shes still a disturbance which causes instability... add that to land interaction and you have enhanced convection ...
so a weak wave that encounters land will always look more impressive than it is due to this land interaction...
the opposite is for an established tropical entity...mountains and land interaction cause disruption of the core of the system ...
bottom line...even if shes a wave...is shes still got structure when pulling away from the islands, she could regenerate into a storm again...its just a wait and see game...
That is what I was thinking ..... HH's should be interesting. I am also noting some models shifting west. Bill's track is not a sure thing
Interesting... seems there're some subtle changes models are hinting towards.
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