Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Out weather is back to normal after last night's event.
Quoting watchingnva:
umm what?
Quoting Vortex95:
???
cant u dudes see the more W motion
I see what u mean by doomcaster fuel. XTRAP on current motion would bring the centre of Bill up the Bahamas - Turks and Caicos chain and into SE FL. Even the UKMET isn't that bad. Scary thing is that climatology does allow for such a track.
However, after having seen one of those fronts come down off the US and scoop up Bertha, I'm now a believer. I'll have to see that WNW track to believe it.
50% goes to the winner and the other 50% goes 100% to Charity yes!
thanks SW
My update is here
XTRAP is not a model. It is the extrapolated track if Bill continues on its current heading.
without the recon reports
I don't know, I've been wondering the same thing! It's been raining at my house since 4 am! So much for this thing passing on through overnight! It's like the circulation moved inland and left all the covection and rain behind in the GOM! Weird!
Hello.
IN the last 2 or so frames I see a sharp movement W. You too?
I don't see a COC but, we've been trying to stick a fork in her for some time now. I'll keep watching with ya. Convergence / Divergence is highest NW of PR so if one were to re-develop it would be there, IMO.
In Vino Veritas!
Link
1. you can see cludettes energy not going anywhere
2. Watch ana get it toghether compared to 24hrs ago
3. Bill more westerly than thought
MJO prolly peaked in amplitude...and moved out of our domain of interest.
Is that V shapped thing pointing down on Bill on the Water Vapor the weakness in the ridge??
I was just saying I think the scenario w/ the front is more plausible at this point in time.....
she hasnt been dead since africa...shes been very much alive in spurts...and even when the nhc dropped her the other day she kept a fairly well defined low level circulation easily visible...but even that now is becoming a problem for her...thats not to say that an open wave wont hit hot water and regenerate in a few days...but at this point in time, show me a visible shot of her low level circulation...please?...or bouys, reports or something showing something at the surface...bc im not seeing it...
and when did i ever say she would no longer be a concern for anyone, or down the road in a few days?....never i believe is the answer to that one ;)
I agree, though I have been wrong many times when staring at these things frame by frame. Not a real good way to track movement.
Yes, that kind of feature on a WV image is indicative of a trough/weakness.
Interesting info at Hurricane City Halifax history with tropical systems
I did not realize how often Nova Scotia is under the gun.
- Brushed or hit every 3.94 years
- 1873 Aug 25th 1,000 killed in Nova Scotia 1,200 ships grounded from a hurricane that moved up the eastern seaboard. This system is listed as a brush above because it passed nearly 200 miles to the south.
LOL yes. I think it will reform over the gulf straights/bahamas
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Camille
Bad storm... We're in the part of the season that breeds these monsters...
This article is about the 2008 tropical storm. For other stormsTropical Storm Fay was a tropical storm and the sixth named storm of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. Fay formed from a vigorous tropical wave on August 15 over the Dominican Republic. It passed over the island of Hispaniola, into the Gulf of Gonâve, across the island of Cuba, and made landfall on the Florida Keys late in the afternoon of August 18 before veering into the Gulf of Mexico. It again made landfall near Naples, Florida, in the early hours of August 19 and progressed northeast through the Florida peninsula, emerging into the Atlantic Ocean near Melbourne on August 20. Extensive flooding took place in parts of Florida as a result of its slow movement. On August 21, it made landfall again near New Smyrna Beach, Florida, moving due west across the Panhandle, crossing Gainesville and Panama City, Florida. As it zigzagged from water to land, it became the first storm in recorded history to make landfall in Florida four times.[1] Thirty-six deaths were blamed on Fay.[2] Eleven tornadoes were spawned within the United States due to Fay. Damage from Fay was heavy, estimated at $560 million.[3]
Hi 456, I would be interested in your opinion of a Fay-like scenario with Ana. If I read correctly, Fay strenghthened over the DR. So is it not out of the question Ana has a possibilty to at least maintain strength as she goes north of Hispaniola?
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt
flags are off
See now was that so hard? It is suffering and it has off and on since it came off the coast. We are so quick to condemn another persons views on here. If a person feels it might be picking up convection then why is that bothersome to you. If your right then hey "youre right" Feel free to clarify your position and view point before stating the other person is absolutely wrong.... Just like you did to me!
No....
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