Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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i think shes falling apart over good ol' PR...
The Hurricane Center has pretty much been saying this for the past 24 hours and they don't expect to find much later when the Hurricane Hunters go out there.
The only reason it is still a storm is because a ship report, south of Puerto Rico, reported a light west wind....
I think advisories will be discontinued at 5pm unless radar shows something better and soon.
Read the 11 am discussion. NHC is not certain if it is an open wave or not. They are just calling it a TD to be conservative.
Yeah...At a Blues Festival in May; my two passions are weather and music. :)
oklahoma. that cold front is coming by and its very very nice here!!
buoy."
also "The intensity forecast is complicated by the uncertain existence of an actual tropical cyclone"
Cool.. i play a little too. Not good enough by myself but would love to be in a band if I had the time... ok off topic sorry!
Even if it is only a wave, it is a wave in the Gulf in mid August. I will wait until it exits the Gulf before I quit watchin.
Audrey was a wave in the Gulf...in late June 1957(?).
Cluadette's (IMHO) center formed to far north, she was tring to relocate her center further south just did not have time to finish. So again IMHO, that persistant stuff in the gulf is where Cluadette wanted her center to be. It is to close to land now to amount to much but a little shove into the gulf might rekindle it.
Hey Tonya. Thanks for watching. Yea, we still need to monitor until Bill gets past our latitude. Still have to watch the waves behind Bill. I'm sure there will be a few more storms down the road that will pique our interest.
doomcaster fuel
And in other model news:
CMC 12Z valid 00Z Aug 22
Link
Takes Bill much further W and S than the previous 00Z integration valid at the same time.
Link
It isn't over until the butterfly stops flapping its wings...
I love that last line...the models dont even know if they are tracking an actual cyclone or not...
umm what?
1. It's still very ragged.
2. It's got too much "yellow" in that ring of clouds. Annular 'canes will be more solidly red on the AVN.
If it does become annular, it prolly won't get there today....
Just to give you an idea of where she is right now: look at the radar image in Jeff Master's post up here. Ana is a bit to the SW where the P of Ponce is.
agrees fully...
cant u dudes see the more W motion
There is no low that will be pushing Bill east. It's a very progressive full latitude trough that will be "picking up" Bill over the next few days. We probably won't see much of an influence until late in the week. It will be a very gradual NW turn through Thursday then we'll see an increase in forward speed and latitude by the weekend.
really stretching arent we?...lol...i know the general area...but shes opening up, no ifs ands or buts about it..and if the "center" is near ponce moving wnw...over the mountains she will go...
I am having a hard time detecting the COC using visible satellite....even on radar lol
in ponce a light trickle, thunder in the distance, and constant birdsong are nature's sounds.
waiting for those fabled 50mph barbs
You can let me know either by mail thru WeatherUnderground or thru this forum link
Thanks,
Tim
My old friend rareaire...how's things, bro?
Some of the models are putting bill really close to nova scotia canada, im on the most eastern tip of NS, http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/model_s.shtml
has bill getting ridiculously close to where i live, giving current temps, lets just say its coming right at me, what kind of weakening is possible from the cool waters? Will it drop below hurricane strength that quickly?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/sst-atl-loop.html
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