TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
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I wouldnt completely agree, with the convection getting sheared to the west, I think they will wait until 2 or 5. We will see, tho.
If they called Barry and Nana, this deserves classification too in my book.
Got it... thx
Its possible as forecasts 7 days out are pretty low confidence.
i notice a WSW movement wih TD2. is it as a result of the LLC to it's southwest? if that is the case then the models will shift to the left in their next run
144 hours
For lack of a better word...
Boom.
Normally don't get crazy until it is out in the Gulf of Mexico. Even with early news of Katrina headed into Florida, we left town for a family visit . . . . only to turn around when we heard the latest advisory had Katrina bombing the Mississippi Gulf Coast, which it did.
Are you John Madden? Lol.
UKMET, GFS, and CMC predict that a WSW dip may occur. These models are on the southern portion of the guidance envelope.
A new burst of deep convection near the COC could signal the move to TS status.
Drak, thanks. Nevertheless, the water vapor loop shows that pre-Ana is going to move near an area of deep moisture, from this area, soon.
OMG LOL
yes it is still about 10-12 days waya it will change severaql times lol
Bull in a china shop was busted on Mythbusters. they are actually very careful in close con-finds.
I have another word for it but I dont wanna get banned. How powerful, category? is that showing? New to the models.
They're all in supermarkets these days. Was a cow in some Irish supermarket running around before it ran back out. A funny video.
Think it was a cow anyway.
Strong Hurricane....maybe a Category 2.
Its not worth analyzing too much because it will likely be gone by the next run.
is that 993mb at the center???
How would we not be dealing with Anna before Bill? LOL
You are so right, lol.
Cow's as in over sized women or cows in a can?
Hey, BeanTech. I was referring to when someone gets hit really hard. BOOM! This is hit catchphrase: "(Mumbles uncontrollably) Brett Favre (Keeps Mumbling) BOOM!"
well it is tracking a storm that doesnt exist yet. And it is currently the only model forecasting this scenario. Low confidence.
Its possible
Its not worth analyzing too much because it will likely be gone by the next run.
How long does it look like SAL will keep affecting it?
I thought shear was really low around TD2 and dry air / SAL was affecting it?
Thanks
Think Charley!
Morning All, been watching that all morning, could play a roll in the future of our TD
000
WTNT32 KNHC 121442
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009
...DEPRESSION REMAINING JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST OR ABOUT 630 MILES...1015 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.3N 33.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Looking at the dry air/SAL, TD2 will be dealing with it for at least the next 48 hours. During this time it will most likely continue on a w/sw coarse until it can find some moisture. If it does affect the Carribean, I don't think it will be much of a storm. Maybe a small TS.
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