TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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Yeah, I see that.
Right around the NOAA symbol! LOL!
000
NOUS42 KWNO 111726
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1714Z TUE AUG 11 2009
NEW NOAA NWS NCEP SUPERCOMPUTER IMPLEMENTATION UPDATE
AS THE FINAL TEST OF THE NEW SUPERCOMPUTERS..NCEP IS PLANNING
TO DISSEMINATE ALL 12Z CYCLE PRODUCTS OPERATIONALLY FROM THE
NEW STRATUS SUPERCOMPUTER IN GAITHERSBURG ON AUGUST 12...IF
THE TEST GOES WELL THEN WE WILL DECLARE STRATUS OPERATIONAL
AT 18Z ON AUGUST 12 AND NCEP PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN ON
STRATUS.
ORIGINALLY..THE ADVERTISED PLAN WAS FOR THE NEW SUPERCOMPUTERS
TO BE DECLARED OPERATIONAL ON AUGUST 18, HOWEVER WITH THE
ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC
NEXT WEEK NCEP NCO HAS DECIDED TO IMPLEMENT THE NEW
SUPERCOMPUTER ON AUGUST 12 IF POSSIBLE IN ORDER TO MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE TRANSITION ON NWS OPERATIONS.
AS WITH PREVIOUS UPGRADES...THE MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE
NEW COMPUTER MAY BE DISCONTINUOUS FROM THOSE PRODUCED ON THE
OLD COMPUTER/PREVIOUS CYCLE ESPECIALLY AFTER DAY 5. WHY?
THE HARDWARE/COMPILERS USED BY THE TWO COMPUTERS DIFFER AND
THE DATA DECODERS/ASSIMILATION SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
INDEPENDENTLY ON EACH SYSTEM. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL CREATE
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN MODEL INITIAL CONDITIONS CAUSED BY
ASSIMILATING DIFFERENT AMOUNTS OF DATA AND USING SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT FIRST GUESS FIELDS. SMALL NON-METEOROLOGICAL
DIFFERENCES EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO RANDOM NOISE - TRIGGERING
CONVECTION IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS AT DIFFERENT TIMES.
THESE TYPES OF DIFFERENCES GROW QUICKLY AND TEND TO
SATURATE AFTER A FEW HOURS OF MODEL TIME. AVERAGED OVER A
LARGE NUMBER OF CASES THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT ONE MACHINE
IS BETTER THAN THE OTHER...OR DIFFERENT IN ANY OTHER
SYSTEMATIC WAY.
Morning All
The pattern taking shape warrants and extra twist in your cheeks.
Well have to see how ECMWF does at 12Z if it start agreeing with a more W solution which I wouldn't be surprised off since models have been underestimating the A/B High in long range runs.
Nice looking out flow associated with TD2, looks like we will have Ana by 11am. Really starting look better and better.
Very broad area of low pressure which was also confirmed from the satellite derived winds. The GFS showed a broad system forming in the short term that tightens up there after.
http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/satellite/eastern-atlantic-ocean-ir-satellite-loop.htm l
Wave in the carrib.
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1328Z WED AUG 12 2009
12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS CURRENTLY ON TIME...
NCEP IS CURRENTLY SENDING OUT PRODUCTS FROM THE NEW STRATUS
SUPERCOMPUTER
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - MISSED THE NAM...IN FOR THE GFS
FAI/70261 - 10159
RNK/72318 - SHORT TO 571MB
CUU/76225 - 10142
$$
SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP
Yea I have seen it. It comes from the area near the Lesser Antilles.
Thanks!
Yay for the CMC - Constantly Making Cyclones!
I think the "thing" smacking into the TX/LA border is something it spins up either off the stalled front or off the piece of the wave expected to come into the GOM in a few days.
Finally.
Haha, do your thing.
Where are those numbers? I know where the SSD is, but not those.
Are they running the same models on a better computer, or a new model altogether?
Correct. The models will be run a bit earlier than normal from what I understand.
“We’re not expecting those to become much,” Bragaw said"
That was from our local paper here in Melbourne
Just trying to understand where everyone's concern is coming from.
Thanks.
Same models, new computer. It should help to speed up posting the GFS and NAM.
Our local mets here in Baton Rouge, LA dont seem too concerned either. Just a wait and see game unfortunately.
Correct. It will be running faster and harder.
Both. During the tropical season, any storm that has or possibly will develop needs to be watched closely.
Drake if you dont mind me asking, where are you located?
I agree. Especially with the WSW motion, as they said yesterday a more southerly solution would allow a stronger cyclone. Warmer SST's down a little further as well.
Link
Will it be more accurate?
-------------------------
As I mentioned earlier, we may see some small changes sometime late next week when a large trough of low pressure develops over the eastern half of the US. The trough will force a cold front into Texas sometime next Thursday or Friday, possibly bringing a chance for rain along with slightly lower temperatures. ***The upper high is forecast to be pushed to the south. Yea! *** Seriously, it will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves late next week.
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http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/weather/weather_column.html
Good... let's hope everything goes well with the upgrade and starting at 00Z tonight we'll be having quick posting of models on the web.
South Florida
No.
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