TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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Ah, thanks.
Possible that the dvorak has jumped the gun a bit, unless they change it later on.
All to be revealed in a couple o' hours.
very nice anim!
"business as usual" or BAU
Thanks SW! I'll check back later. Have a great day all!
in trekkie fashion: "you are not alone"
It looks like it might go to
2,1,1 in a week or so. ;)
Good Evening Alaina.
Great update as always StormW
latest vis 1215 utc
02L/TD/A
Champagne is on ice.....0-0-0 is about over.
Unfortunately.
Wave moving through the islands now. It's heading WNW toward the GOM/bath water.
Remarkable is the well synchron distance between those 3 "Spots".
How strong does the model have it? Texas could use a drought-buster.
there is currently a low pressure sitting over NC..when this moves off land..does this have the potential to become tropical?
Ike do you really think something will spin up? Seems it would have to do some rapid intensification to do so. I know SST's are oober warm in GOM now, how is the shear forcast to be?
thats what left of the wave currently around 55 ish
LONG RANGE MODELS PICKING UP ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE CUBA/
FLORIDA STRAITS NEXT FRIDAY. 0Z CANADIAN WANTING TO DEVELOP AND
TAKE A WEAK STORM INTO SABINE BY MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW WITH THIS SOLUTION SINCE 12Z HAD NO
SIGN OF THIS FEATURE. GETTING INTO THAT TIME OF YEAR...NHC HAS LOW
PROB OF FORMATION WITH THE TWO WAVES OVER LESSER ANTILLES WHILE
CURVING TD #2 AS A WEAK TS TOWARDS BERMUDA. 31
Ummm. What 12Z? Is todays out already? The CMC I was watching before yesterday had this low on it for days. It just showed up on the short range CMC yesterday. By Sabine, I think he means Sabine Pass?
there is currently a low pressure sitting over NC..when this moves off land..does this have the potential to become tropical?
and if it does..could this play a part in TD2 track?
I think it's 50-50...ECMWF camp is further west. GFS curves it.
Go to Los Angeles
Any more models jumpin on this band wagon? I dont doubt it could happen, but im just curious.
It could in the GOM.
CMC...GFS...UKMET show something. CMC is aggressive...GFS and UKMET aren't as much.
Could someone please tell me when DMax and Dmin takes place?
When shear is low they will both line up and you get a stronger system, most of the time....
I think Stormw mentioned this in his blog today.
Sheri
It's there, it's moving west, and it's in 14N35W approx... typically a system that far out that north goes up to the north atlantic.
notice "typically"
WHXX01 KWBC 121238
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1238 UTC WED AUG 12 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022009) 20090812 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090812 1200 090813 0000 090813 1200 090814 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 33.3W 14.7N 35.2W 15.1N 37.8W 15.9N 40.6W
BAMD 14.4N 33.3W 14.8N 35.7W 15.3N 38.4W 16.2N 41.2W
BAMM 14.4N 33.3W 14.9N 35.3W 15.4N 37.7W 16.2N 40.3W
LBAR 14.4N 33.3W 14.8N 35.6W 15.2N 38.4W 16.1N 41.4W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 42KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090814 1200 090815 1200 090816 1200 090817 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 43.7W 18.6N 50.6W 21.8N 57.8W 25.5N 63.3W
BAMD 17.1N 43.9W 19.3N 48.9W 22.0N 53.9W 25.3N 57.1W
BAMM 16.9N 43.0W 18.8N 49.1W 21.5N 55.7W 25.1N 60.8W
LBAR 17.0N 44.3W 19.5N 49.9W 23.0N 54.9W 27.2N 59.3W
SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 49KTS 48KTS
DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 49KTS 48KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 33.3W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 31.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.5N LONM24 = 29.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Dmax is night and Dmin is day
Thanks for the info! I will definetly read his blog
The wave coming off the coast behind TD2 is HUGE. lol
From StormW's blog:
We may want to watch off the SEUS coast during this upcoming week, as a trof spilt is forecast, and we could have a piece of energy stall of the SEUS coast
Viewing: 3501 - 3551
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