TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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If it developed quickly, odds are it would be a fish-storm.
One huge wave...may take time to really get going.
LOL
Navy chart for TD2 this a.m.
Looks like Navy has it at 14.5N 32W at 6 a.m. Zulu time.
Where is the high now and where will it be when it moves west? The ridge will block storms from going north?
That is where I see it. It will not reach TS strength lopsided like that but there is always the possibility of the COC relocating deep within the heavy convection. If that were to happen it would dramatically alter both track and intensity forecasts.
I imagine the lopsided convection/lack of organization is what's keeping the NHC from upgrading at this time.
I agree with you though WXlogic, I've seen the NHC classify a TS with less than what's there now.
yep, but the models keep bridging the high all the way back to the Gulf. This blog is going to go crazy today.
Freakin' madhouse!
The image is correct. See this from the Discussion
"Microwave and shortwave infrared data suggest the center remains on
the eastern side of the convection and not well-embedded within the
main convective cluster."
Yes, indeed. Shear is the main problem, though dry air is a seeming constant. The shear's on its south side, and will remain like that for a few hours. In about 6-12 hours it should get past the 20kts of shear, to more conducive environment of 5-15.
The tendency isn't showing any major change from this either. May improve tonight unless as you say, it relocates prior to then.
Have certainly been worse looking tropical storms. Barry of '07 comes readily to mind.
Morning Kman...
models
According to the map here Link
There seems to be a high in the gulf now. I think the ridge would block a storm from going north.
This is a great image to show where the circulation is in association with the convection. I know I already posted it, but as quick as it's moving, I figured some might have missed it. You can see the LLC is clearly on the E side of the main convection and partially exposed. KMan is right, the storm can't strengthen with the lack of organization.
I think if the convection is misplaced but still connected to the low level coc and the wins speed is over 40 mph they almost have to name it.
WHXX01 KWBC 120650
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0650 UTC WED AUG 12 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022009) 20090812 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090812 0600 090812 1800 090813 0600 090813 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 31.9W 14.9N 34.1W 15.2N 36.6W 15.6N 39.4W
BAMD 14.6N 31.9W 15.1N 34.2W 15.3N 37.1W 16.0N 40.1W
BAMM 14.6N 31.9W 15.2N 34.0W 15.5N 36.6W 16.1N 39.4W
LBAR 14.6N 31.9W 14.9N 34.1W 15.5N 36.6W 16.2N 39.7W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 49KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090814 0600 090815 0600 090816 0600 090817 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 42.3W 17.7N 49.1W 19.9N 56.5W 22.9N 64.3W
BAMD 16.9N 42.8W 19.5N 47.6W 22.8N 51.1W 25.0N 53.1W
BAMM 16.8N 42.1W 18.8N 48.1W 21.4N 54.5W 24.4N 60.8W
LBAR 17.0N 42.6W 19.5N 48.0W 23.1N 52.2W 27.5N 52.3W
SHIP 54KTS 62KTS 56KTS 47KTS
DSHP 54KTS 62KTS 56KTS 47KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 31.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 29.9W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 27.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Good morning.
I had half expected to see TD2 as a TS this morning but it continues to struggle with organization. The wave that just came off the coast may do better as it is further S.
It would be ironic if the "Bill" wave became "Ana"
I see the WU GFS (initialized at 0z on 8/12) is back to kickin' Florida butt.
But, it looks like we're not the only ones...
yep, exactly
It just won't do much else at this stage until it sorts itself out and/or finds a slightly better environment.
Thanks to all of you who post these models. It's hard to look them up at work!
very good!
i have to laugh with the acronyms ... especially at the end it gets rather dense for us bare amateurs. "the GOMEX SST's on the THCP for SEUS" hehe
lol... no doubt.
Will catch up later.
saharan air layer = sal
a fish storm is just that, a storm full of fish
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