TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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Go right ahead, Ike! I'm leaving for work- no net access- so the only rush I get this morning is strong coffee!
Ya'll have fun scaring the livin' daylights outta each other!
Have a great wednesday.
Have a nice day.
epic fail...really?...you are 27 years old and epic fail is your vernacular of choice?
noaa pushes storms up north in the forecasts in a slightly parabolic, always predictable fashion. Are you implying forecast tracks are less than fully honest?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009
.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED DURING
THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
THE PUNTA SALINAS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO BE AFFECTED BY AN ELONGATED
WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE WAVE IS POISED TO MOVE
ACROSS USVI AND PR LATER TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL BECOME LOCALLY
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DUE TO SEA
BREEZE EFFECTS. THIS FIRST PERIOD OF WEATHER IS TO BE FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL BANDS OF MOISTURE TRAVELING AHEAD OF NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED NEAR 55 WEST. THIS SECOND WAVE IS EXPECTED TO START
IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AND EXIT WEST PUERTO RICO
FRIDAY MORNING. MAIN IMPACTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS. WAVE SHOULD INTERACT WITH FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS INDUCED BY UPPER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST OVER HISPANIOLA. DRIER AIR IS TO SLIDE BEHIND THE WAVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT ON SATURDAY THE NORMAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FOLLOWS NEXT AND WE SHOULD MONITOR ITS
PROGRESS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM TPC/NHC ON THIS
SYSTEM.
ANOTHER LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS TRACKING BEHIND TROPICAL DEP 2 AND WE
SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS SINCE GFS IS INDICATING POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE CHANCE THAT IT MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. KEPT MAX SURFACE
WINDS AT 25 KNOTS FOR GRIDS FOR DAY 7 AND 8 PERIOD. A REMINDER...IT
IS AUGUST AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY A TIME WHEN THE TROPICS BECOME MORE
ACTIVE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS...MARINERS AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO
MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY...AS WE APPROACH THE MORE ACTIVE PART OF
THE HURRICANE SEASON.
Is this weird or what. I guess this fits with the steering current, as the blob that left us has steered SouthWest tot he South American coast.
This is going to be one weird season.
Looks like the system East of the islands is going to seriously threaten us in Barbados, you think?
Morning.
Had to drive to Wal-Mart at 4 am....no coffee in the house....
On my 2nd cup....
Its not from the QuikScat site, but the Eumetsat Ocean and Sea Ice, http://www.knmi.nl/scatterometer/ascat_osi_25_prod/ascat_app.cgi. On the right hand side you can select QuikScat.
Link
And it seems to be steering under the dry air, bring it closer to ...me...lol
Watch the kettle turn it off right before it boils.
You MUST have your coffee....lol
Just finished mine and am off for a run shortly.
Have a good day guys.
You're holding your breath waiting for a blank/aka 0-0-0, to end.
HPC shows what I believe is the wave currently ~55W going through the gulf as a trough.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
Someone in the blog said a few days ago that if the storm stayed on the weak side and didn't develop too quickly, it would tend to move more West than North.
Plenty of it.
More in line w/the ECMWF.
That would help drought-stricken SE TX.
Did you catch any of the meteor shower? Was too cloudy here in tampa bay. Got up too early for nothing. No shooting stars and no Ana.
Ya, when you read their discussions they tend to favor the ECMWF and it's ensemble mean most of the time.
"UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.".....
No troughs coming in or down into the SE USA...not good for storms to avoid possible landfalls.
Noted. At 35W, I am at 59.4W. Thus, 59.4-35 = 14.6 times roughly 60miles = 876 miles to travel
Moving at say, 15 mph (guess), gives it (the centre) between 50 and 55 hours to get in this area.
That means that the overall system will begin affecting the area in roughly 2 days, which is Thursday.
Bye, I am off, have a good day.
LOL
Who's "old" now, sucka?!?!?!
6z
162hours
And that's less than a week away. More like 6 1/2 days.
Tropical Depression near TS strength; Trouble A'brewing
hahahaha, I HATE it when that happens.. good morning sir!
mornin' Senior Chief! 456, happy birthday junkie!
Happy Birthday SJ!
6z
180hours
morning
Yikes!
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