TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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TD2
AOI
Zoomiami made them and I use them in my posts
Exactly. The "center" of a projected track 5 days out has something along the lines of a 200-300 mile error probability.
yeap bloggers always call it first lol good job everyone keep it up
So are you saying it could possibly affect Jamaica in that time frame or is it too far out to tell?
Like I said last night to block this web page(antivirusbestscanv5.com) from your router settings or internet security software. And I think if you still having the same problem the (AD) that is tricking you that you have a virus just press (alt, ctrl, del) 2. go to (processes)tab and end the (iexplorer.exe) if you using Microsoft browser or (firefox.exe) if you using Firefox.
damn, there goes that rationality again...
Too far out to tell. Give it a couple of days.
I would also check Weather456's blog, since he is a professional met in the Caribbean, and will likely have more island-specific info. (this blog tends to favor CONUS data, and has a strong bias towards SE FL, much to my chagrin)
Severe storm predicting is all about getting the warning out and saving lives. This is completely different. Really what is the difference right now to us if this is a 40 mph TS or a 35 mph TD. The main thing is that the NHC gets the forecast correct..and in the long run I have more faith in them then anyone else!!
The NHC said that it is close to tropical storm strength themselves. Could it be a TS now? Sure, but we have no proof to back that u
Thanks for the answers
I have been off here since last September when Ike rendered us powerless for 21 days, but it's good to see all of ya'll here and especially, JFV and "ikester"...
Looking forward to reading your comments and insight (and not commenting back since I know I am not a met or wannabe...) to get educated... and Happy Bday, WS!
WS, you take alot of grief (most of it deserved...) but I would love nothing better than my five year old son to have such a passion for something as you do, in your case, weather.
That, he could in the future, could come on here during his formative years, and actually learn somethng, instead of the alternative of what most teens do, speaks volumes about how good a kid you really are. (think there were 7 commas in that RO sentence)
Follow your passion, WS, you will end up doing it...
And, I do love the contributions from Ike, Drak, Patrap, and even press(y)... good stuff, fellows! and thanks to the majority of you all!
and I look forward to hearing all of your voices:)
whhaaa do we have twins coming off of africa
I should have been more specific. I meant the GFS has a good idea of the track a week out.
The NOGAPS also continues to deny formation of Bill. I might be wrong but I think that's the only model not developing the African wave.
The UKMET has Ana swallowing the wave off the coast of Africa.
That seems unlikely. Thoughts?
Not out of the question. We just saw that in the EPac.. Tight little Felicia, too close to big ol juicy Enrique who was too big & blobby to to get wrapped up before she tapped him & sucked him dry..
im not trying to scare anyone but does anyone else see that tropical system right off the coast off North Carolina at the end of the loop on the 28th of August. Of course you can't count of anything 2 weeks out but it is something to watch for a wave to come out from Africa in a few days to a week. btw how long does it usually take for a wave to get from the coast of Africa to the east coast. THANKS
We dont know what will happend in one week.
One day ago models pull ANA WNW clearly away from Antilles today we not sure if can get north of the islands.
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