TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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That could be. Most eyes on here are better trained then I, but I'm learning. I will watch the area your looking at as well.
Remnants of TD#2 moving towards Florida once again on the 00Z run
..So GFS shows a strong, building ridge..a weakening system (TD#2) .. and an intesifying system (African wave). Those are the variables; lets sit back and see what happens!!
fixed it today
Link
While i'm here having insomnia and need to wake up in like 6 hours, i'll ask something i've always wondered. How can you tell intensity from those models? The lowest pressure I see there in that link is 1000 mb, meaning weak TS at best, so how do you know it means major hurricane?
they may have to relocate that lol
This Bill 03L forecast has been very persistent over the past several cycles, which really doesn't mean that much.
GFS tropical wind animation (updates every 6-hours)
Great question! :)
the GFS is known to show storms weaker then what it really is.. say Felix (2007), an excellent example. When Felix was a raging category 5 storm in the Carribean, the GFS had it as a weak TS.
Any sort of remnant circulation this time of the year approaching Florida is scary
We need some rain in Jamaica. According to records it's the worst drought since 1992 and the dam only has 26% of water left and on top of that you can get arrested and fined for using excessive amounts of water.
every 30 minutes for nhc and every 15 mins for RAMMB
is that future ana we see coming in to the frame with an increase?
Dmax?
Thoughts?
Link
Thanks much. Just saw the updated info.
That didn't really answer, even say Katrina as it was entering the GOM, it would have been shown as 996mb. So how do you tell how strong its forecasting it? Guestimate? I don't get it...
no problem.
hi ch can we might see a relocation of the center soon
That means that we can safely assume Tampa will not be hit! =P
SHIPS & other intensity models.
No need to get excited or concerned right now man. Just keep an eye on the situation for now. And most importantly, just make sure you have your preparation plans in place just in case this ever does become a threat.
For once. lol
LATEST 415 UTC IMAGE
02L/TD/A
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.2mb/ 53.0kt
Viewing: 3001 - 3051
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