TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
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Any Guess on What State on the Conus?
My thoughts
Florida 50%
N. Carolina 30%
S. Carolina 19%
Georgia 0.5% (Cause StSimmonsGuy Has a Super Deflector Sheild)
Maine 0.000001
Your thoughts?
Take out Maine and add Bermuda.
Location: 14.8°N 31.5°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Ike showed many,..again..that a Large CV storm in the GOM can have far reaching effects on folks Hundreds of Miles from the Center.
Is this the real slim shady? or the imposter?
I do agree with you either way.
Hehe... they're holding off... pretty sure they want to see further convective consistency before naming it.
It your Birthday......you can finally take your training pants off and be a big boy now.......BRO just kidding....LOL
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER MAKA (CP012009)
3:00 AM UTC August 11 2009
====================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Maka (1009 hPa) located at 13.9N 173.3W or 280 NM southwest of of Johnston Island has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-northwest at 8 knots.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.8N 176.2W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
He's the real deal.
i sure am. look i used the quote button. this is the only blogspot i go to, so i'm not really too familiar with them.
14.6 NORTH 5 pm
Has been moving a little north of due west.
O wait. Bermuda is not a state. : P
Yay! :) Yea im not a big blogger either. Took me a while to get the hang of things in here also.
No they LIVE on St. Thomas but are MOVING here to Tampa on Thursday!
BTW, where are the Greater Antilles located?
WTNT42 KNHC 120300
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RECENT BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...WITH THE
CENTER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE MASS. EVEN THOUGH
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...A RECENTLY-
RECEIVED ASCAT PASS FROM 0000 UTC SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INTENSITY
TO 30 KT. EVEN MORE RECENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND THE DEPRESSION MAY NOW BE
CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
WHILE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER-
DEFINED...THERE STILL EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
LOCATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/11...AS THE
CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON DAYS 4 AND 5 SHOULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO BEGIN GAINING MORE LATITUDE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE HWRF SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AMONGST THE
MODEL SUITE...IMMEDIATELY TAKING THE CYCLONE ON A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD PATH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SPREAD OF THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY SMALL...EVEN IN THE LONGER
RANGE...WHICH ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS THE HWRF SOLUTION AND LIES BETWEEN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST
EASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS A RESULT
OF INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH. THIS INCREASE IN
SHEAR SHOULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM. LATER
IN THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
INTERACT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF A
PRONOUNCED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE WITHIN THE MID-OCEANIC
TROUGH. THIS INTERACTION SHOULD INDUCE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM BEGINNING DAY 4. SHOULD THE CYCLONE TAKE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING TREND. THEN
AGAIN...SHOULD THE CYCLONE MAINTAIN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...THE
SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BE LOWER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 14.8N 31.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 14.8N 33.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 14.8N 35.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 14.9N 37.7W 35 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 15.2N 40.2W 40 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 16.5N 45.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 51.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 56.5W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN
Time of Latest Image: 200908120215
Yes definately we had gusts near Hurricane Strength at my home in South-central Louisiana
The massive wave which may spawn Bill according to the models is now exiting the coast.
Thats too early to say!
God forbid a large Cape Verde storm should make its way into the simmering GOM this year...
I know, they should have gotten their degrees in Meteorology and devote their lives to predicting hurricanes.
If they think they can,well..then they are Fools in a Fools pool swimming in the deep end without any sense of purpose.
I didn't predict it the GFS long range model did......
It looks like SouthEast Texas will finally get some much needed RAIN next week.
You can't even go inner-tubing in some of the rivers North of San Antonio now because water levels are too low. We need to re-fill the reservoirs and lakes. Looks like several days worth of good rain coming.
Maybe we can even get off of landscape watering restrictions.
WTNT42 KNHC 120300
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RECENT BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...WITH THE
CENTER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE MASS. EVEN THOUGH
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...A RECENTLY-
RECEIVED ASCAT PASS FROM 0000 UTC SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INTENSITY
TO 30 KT. EVEN MORE RECENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND THE DEPRESSION MAY NOW BE
CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
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