TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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Gotcha - thanks... However, at times the NHC quotes CMISS and other "estimation" products in their discussions.
If it is that low TD2 seems to getting itself in order quite fast. It does look a lot better on IR then it did earlier today - but not that good as Acemmet pointed out.
Link
Just cuz the wave came blazin' off Cape Verde doesn't mean it won't have to work as it traverses the Atlantic.
Virus attack. everyone has been doing virus scans and malware scans.
not alot but I'll take anything at this point
Not to be talking sports, but if watched the previous game and this game then you would understand why he did what he did. He is an emotional player and his emotions got the best of him.
Center of circulation looks to be under the heaviest convection now. The CIMSS is best for a hurricane or stronger storm. It is an estimation of strength dependent on satellite appearance.
The only thing my scan found was 1 tracking cookie. Whatever it is, my setup seems immune
Thanks for the additional info, I'm browsing through all the source code from todays blog and the points where people suggested from yesterday. I did see an imposter post for keeperofthegate where there was an additional 't'. I'll analyze that more closely.
Well WU has your island getting approximately an inch of rain on Thursday
Link
I'd pick 3, similar to Ernesto's track hitting SFLA and then hitting the Carolinas.
There was also an imposter for CCHSW that used CCHSVW in his handle.
?? Are you talking about WS?
while the wave near 53w has diminishes in convection,and now appears to be more of a rain maker for the central antilles, i have now shifted my attention to another area of mid to low level circulation near 11N 46W. this maybe associated with a surface trough or an unanalyed tropical wave. the spin in that area is really vigorous and can be seen quite easily on RAMSDIS
Yes I pay a lot, but I have no problems & no worries.
I do believe that based on SAT obs that ANA is here, the COC is relocating closer to the main intense convection... if you notice it has slowed some and it has expanded some compared to earlier.
I don't foresee the dry/SAL being an issue with this one as it has enough energy to generate convection and keep it away from the center.
If it can keep that convection going it will have not problem reaching those numbers as estimated by ADT.
725
WHXX01 KWBC 120034
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0034 UTC WED AUG 12 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022009) 20090812 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090812 0000 090812 1200 090813 0000 090813 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 31.1W 15.1N 33.3W 15.3N 35.8W 15.5N 38.5W
BAMD 14.8N 31.1W 15.3N 33.3W 15.8N 35.9W 16.3N 39.0W
BAMM 14.8N 31.1W 15.4N 33.3W 15.8N 35.7W 16.3N 38.6W
LBAR 14.8N 31.1W 15.4N 33.4W 16.2N 36.0W 16.9N 39.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 37KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090814 0000 090815 0000 090816 0000 090817 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 41.2W 17.0N 47.8W 19.1N 55.0W 21.8N 63.1W
BAMD 17.4N 41.8W 20.0N 46.6W 23.8N 49.8W 26.2N 49.8W
BAMM 17.0N 41.3W 18.8N 47.4W 21.3N 54.0W 24.4N 60.4W
LBAR 17.9N 42.1W 20.6N 47.4W 25.0N 50.6W 29.4N 47.2W
SHIP 41KTS 49KTS 49KTS 43KTS
DSHP 41KTS 49KTS 49KTS 43KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 31.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 29.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 26.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Ok thanks I'll check that too
I don't want to tie up the blog with this so if anyone else has any additional posters or specifically post numbers (that would be more helpful) that they believe may contain malware, please shoot me an email and let me know. Thanks
Refer to post 2505...
11PM
HWRF is out to lunch! lol..
Sheri
What's got your attention there Kman?
I am not saying that you were predicting it to happen one certain path, but to say there are three paths it will most likely take is almost the same as making a prediction.
Given that TD2 is a rather small storm. It is quite possible for it to strengthen rapidly or weaken rapidly. Now this cyclone reminds me a lot of Tropical Storm Chris in 2006. There are a lot of differences like location and atmospheric conditions, but just the sheer size of the circulation is similar. So these high intensity fluctuations are a lot more likely than a larger storm (Hurricane Ike 2008).
Really not surprised. I have never bought a recurvature for this system considering how strong the ridge will be building in the coming few days.
thats the extrap model in reponse to a possible movement a little south of due west
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