TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
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Viewing is fine.
Evenin' everyone. This is the most interesting the tropics (at least the ATL tropics anyway) have been so far. I always enjoy and learn from everyone's posts (so thanks all).
The wave that the GFS, CMC, EURO, and GDFL develop is off the coast of Africa and it looks like a circulation is already trying to get going. While Tropical Depression 2 could strengthen to Tropical Storm Ana overnight, dry air will keep it at a range of 40-50 mph. at best. After TD2 "Ana" gets away from the SAL, windshear should start to increase and the storms chances of survival are not that good. However, the wave that is exiting the coastline today will be in a more moist environment and possible already has an anticyclone developing over it. All the models that develop it, are aggressive and make it "Hurricane Bill". The track is simple until it reaches the Islands by the Weekend. I drew three possible paths that it could take.
1. The potential storm finds a strong trough and pulls out to sea, but not before affecting Bermuda. This storm cannot go out to sea until it passes 60W due to a strong ridge of high pressure building back after a small trough curved TD2 "Ana".
2.
The storm becomes a historic Hurricane as it goes through the Carribean for a short amount of time, hits Haiti and weakens. After the potential storm gets back out into the Atlantic, the storm strengthens and feels a trough, pulls northward, misses Florida and hits the Northeast.
3.
Strength wise, this could be the worst case scenario. The potential storm continues heading westward in the Carribean, becomes a major Hurricane and gets into the GOM, hits Florida, similar to Hurricane Ivan (2004)
Of course it can go to Mexico or the western GOM, but I think those three possibilities are a bit more likely.. Can't really predict something that hasn't even developed, this is all speculation. We'll see what happens through the coming weeks as both these systems (Ana, Bill) possibly form. Claudette might develop in 2 weeks according to the GFS. Too far out to make that prediction.. All of this is really just telling us that Hurricane Season has finally started in the Atlantic Ocean. I'm predicting an active period for the next few weeks. Possibly 3-4 storms this month.
I could say the same thing. I just read dr masters last paragraph. Well I must of been away from the blog cuz I'm not getting any messages.
South Florida StormWatch
Atl Link Loop
That what many have been saying,..
as one can contract the Malware Virus simply by Logging on ,..if the Virus is embedded in a Ad Banner,which does occur .
The boomerang anti-virus. What a fantastic idea !
I'm a paid member, so if that is the case, then some would miss it.
Firefox adblock gets rid of these ads.
A special shoutout to StormW! How's it going this time around?
Hey Kman
Nash - do you know if people were getting the virus via clicking links or direct code injection?
I'll buy choice #1.
And it's not a virus, it's simply an advertisement that is being blocked, possibly by mistake. Google wouldn't allow advertisers to use malicious codes.
Lotsa us are Paid members,..but the start up Log-in still engages the Virus or Im a Duck..
Oink,Oink..
The adblock plus plugin for firefox blocks all ads from displaying... probably why I haven't seen any problems. Makes viewing the site a lot nicer too
You can't see the ad.. the virus can't see you..?
Thats why I was confused when everyone said they had contracted it and my Anti-Virus didn't pick it up even hfter a full scan by two seprate programs. I was on when the 2nd attack occoured but I am also a paid member and have no ad's so...
I didn't get it?
What's up ?. Still another ho hum day in the tropics notwithstanding TD2.
I still think it is destined for the open Atlantic.
Hopefully,the Frisco IT folks will isolate the Malicious source and we all can be running along Like Normal.
Whatever that iz round here anymo..
The boomerang anti-virus. What a fantastic idea !
Love this idea!!
I think somewhere around 1630 something there was a link that somebody said they didn't post and it was there. When I went back and check it, the properties said something about Georgia and maybe a massacre? I don't remember now. I think Patrap may know and reported it to Dr. Masters' admin.
Did you read Dawn? Unreal.
True, but the Westcasters are everywhere
From the descriptions given it appears that the problem was the rogue application by the name of "Advanced Virus Remover"
CRS
Dat be Da Bug..
Almost like Moses after coming down from the Mount.
The only thing thats gonna knock this un out is a EMP.
And If that happens,well blogging wont be a issue much at all.
Look at history. The only systems that start out near 15N and make it all the way across into the Caribbean have been in years when we have had very strong ridges of high pressure all the way from the Azores to Florida.
It was my position days ago and still is today that TD2 or Ana will not enter the Caribbean. Whether it reaches the East coast of the US remains to be seen.
I also interested in whether StormW agrees?
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