TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2009081118-two02l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Ani mation
srada, you're right, sir. Or ma'am.
Ms...everyone hang in there!
Where do you get 45kt winds?
I love you, man :D
Also, why are the winds in the QuickSCAT near Africa blowing towards the west? The barbs behind tell you the direction (||____ is 20knot west?) right? Is it low level?
The key here is model consensus, not just that the euro shows a killer.
Time of Latest Image: 200908111935
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis,Wind Field
ecmwf - 168 HRS
no way that blob of convection brought it down to 1000mb and 45 kt winds..im thinking we got a bad reading/estimate...do you believe it jumped that fast? with the way it looks?...no way possible...
Sat Image Loop East Atl.
Wait one,
Well... its either Die Hard or Live Free... situation.
Sounds like something along this lines?
Link
como dicen en la pista...
no te asustes... preocupate
jeje
esta es la parte emocionante de esto... no x que los modelos digan significa que ocurra...
Yea that's true, but I was referring to this year. Never developed anything that the other models did.
Western North Atlantic
Layer Mean Wind Analyses
I need a refresher every new hurricane season.
\__ is a westerly wind and __/ is an easterly wind.
extra slashes are 10 more knots and a half slash is 5?
missed naps - the WORST!
You locked the blog up with that question.
/ west.......\ east
You got it. And the flag is 50kt.
Always remember, the wind direction is the direction the wind is coming FROM.
Hit the quote button under the persons comment you wish to post. You should see it in your comment box. Just write your response underneath.
Thanks much!
The "Quote" link on the bottom of each post, next to the other handy-dandy button on the blog, the "ignore user" button. (and for some reason, I have abused the latter link)
When you quote, your comment text box should start out with something like " < blockquote..."
It's all your fault..lol. Kiddn.
When do you think they will finally name TD2 Ana?
Just hit "quote". Sometimes you have to hit it twice to get it to work. /southwest?
I am pleasently supprised on how willingly you ask questions.. this is what the blog is here for!
Ok here goes..
A wind barb is like a wind vane on top of a farm house roof.. The "stick" points into the wind, its the oppsite of a flag.
For wind speeds a long "barb" is 10 kts a "short barb" is 5 and a triange is 50 kts..
Here is a great website for you.. lots of learning here:
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/home.rxml
Heres the page about wind barbs:
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/maps/sfcobs/wnd.rxml
There is a "quote" action at the bottom of each comment. It looks like this:
It's all your fault..lol. Kiddn.
When do you think they will finally name TD2 Ana?
Well convection appears to be deepening but the numbers are wacked out right now i would have to say maybe at 11 or sometime early tomorow morning if the deep convection can persist
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