TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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Reader Comments
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That's what got me scratching my head. Why did the ECMWF have such a bomb.
The ECMWF is usually the most conservative on strength of the reliable models. Interesting to see how constant it is on developing a monster Hurricane
this is so true...
After looking at the ECMWF for 4 years and watching storms it showed at 990mbs bomb out to <920mb storms when they verify.
The one behind. Glad that it seems to lose his punch just before crossing Puerto Rico,,,
GOM IR Loop
Thanks
Trust your education and instincts.
Pretty close to my sentiments. The biggest question marks are going to be upper-air conditions and track. The waters are plenty warm enough, and TCHP is ripe.
i completely understand what your saying...i only do it from time to time, the whole flagged thing....but not again...only in the background where no one can see or be bothered by it...i promise...
what are you talking about????
i know! :D :D :D :D :D :D im as giddy as a kid thrown into a toys r us spree... i know its just models but...
can someone please link me up to the ECMWF forecasts so i can see them? since google and i have epic failed at this tonight XD
POOR
SURF: 1-2 ft - ankle to knee high and poor conditions. POOR
SURF: 1-2 ft - ankle to knee high and poor conditions. POOR
SURF: 1-2 ft - ankle to knee high and poor conditions. To see five days of forecast data, become a premium subscriber. To see five days of forecast data, become a premium subscriber.
SW/SSW windswell/chop and SE background swell mix
If upper-air conditions are right (little to no shear, good outflow), then absolutely.
WS, simply put, the potential for a storm to bomb out north of the islands, on the way to the Bahamas is an absolute "yes". The question is... will it? (and nobody knows that answer)
Exactly
Are you sure that won't be Claudette?
wow...its been one of those days...i wanted to apologize to you....i completely misread your original post...and im sorry...
Quoting Nolehead:
2032. serialteg
lucky dog.....
i know! :D :D :D :D :D :D im as giddy as a kid thrown into a toys r us spree... i know its just models but...
can someone please link me up to the ECMWF forecasts so i can see them? since google and i have epic failed at this tonight XD
Link
Been watching the estimates come in throughout the afternoon and am surprised that they have continued to increase. Don't know whats going on with the ADT, but it just seems somewhat off.
So, do you guys predict a more southerly tract? Or north as some of the models are showing?
We need Ana first.
The 53W wave wont become Bill before the EATL wave.
Lol, so true.
Its taking a while for that 8PM TWO...
LOL
It came out a half hour ago.
vigorous wave at a nice latitude.
Local Mets here in Wilm, NC are all on the bandwagon and they are mostly concerned with the second wave behind TD2..should be an interesting next couple of weeks!
Reedzone, just been lurking a while, but seems like everyone's saying the same thing "local mets are saying watch the next wave just now emerging"
certainly we all don't live in the same area...are ALL the local mets across the southeast saying this? That sounds,(pulls out thesaurus) err..precipitously ominous... (puts away thesaurus)
The wave exiting the African coast has a MASSIVE envelope. One to watch most certainly.
Its already out
See what I mean?
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