TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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Francis and Jeanne raised hell with mine.. of course the 32 footer that was pushed up along side didn't help either! Beat it to hell and back
more or less. since Accuweather is based at penn state university, I noticed that almost every long term prediction or "doom" prediction is biased for the NE US.
That's not to say that Joe Bastardi is not a good forecaster or meteorologist. IMO, I think he is a fantastic meteorologist, but sometimes his forecasting can be a bit biased toward landfalls either in the gulf or the mid-atlantic of the us.
Yep, got my personal kit done by June 1. Only things I still need are either luxuries, or for post-storm cleanup/help. (I need to get a head-mounted LED light - easier to read with w/o power, and some heavy leather gloves and a strong saw for post-storm cleanup)
looked at 3 different loops...im seeing about a consistent buildup of convection near the center that cools as it expands, but another burst occurs right after...i just don't see it...i could just be being blind tonight.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_namer.shtml
Select GHM for GFDL
Gautier, MS about 15 miles east of biloxi, MS.
I already have him on ignore..he's been banned here before.
is this TD2... or the one behind it? TD2 correct?
where do you get the ECMWF graphics? i've only got this site from FOX
http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/ecmwf_caribbean.html
exactly...my case in point...i flag all...as i stated before...don't get your feelings hurt...case closed, over and done with...
now back to today's regularly scheduled programming.....
Oh yeah.
Billy
I found the Graphic at Allan's weather page
ana ana ana
unbound thee ana
Um. I get what your doing .. but isn't a one word "flagged" post as bothersome as the original? Or asbothersome as this post complaining that post for that matter? I'm just sayingh is it necessary to say " I called the law on you" rather than just to do it ..
Upper-level high pressure is currently over Southeast Texas. This high has protected Southeast Texas from the Tropics in June, July and the first week of August. Unfortunately, the high will translate toward the Southwestern U.S. by Wednesday and then weaken this weekend. Early next week, a trough of low pressure will move from the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies. The Bermuda High will strengthen and ridge into the Southeastern U.S. This will open the Gulf of Mexico for tropical systems to enter as we head into the busiest time of the season.
He sometimes has some good input, and I haven't noticed anything ignore-worthy as of late. (although the shaq-blob avatar was very close)
I may not be super-active on my own blog (I tend to write short novels, so I don't post them often), but I watch this blog and a few others quite often, and have for 2 years now. ;)
a cat4 so near the west of Puerto Rico would mean EPIC SURF ALERT :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
omg omg i will not get too carried away
I remember Freddy it was bad. What cha mean there shooting at us?
Sheri
my God
the one behind TD2
Behind td 2.
Its this huge mess right now.
I want to see organization before Im sure on development. There seems to be a 1008mb low with a rather nice 850 vort max. This area of convection should begin to merge together with the low. I'd say 24-36 hours before development. Although I want to see how the 00Z GFS handles this.
lucky dog.....
West Bay, Grand Cayman. Yours?
Bite your tongue, I'm in Mobile too.
That's what got me scratching my head. Why did the ECMWF have such a bomb.
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