TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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I am right there with you on this. My point was that all it takes is one degree shift in the forecast or a couple mb change in pressure and the whole track changes.
Hello Jersey from Mobile. Keep on blogging, because you have the right mindset!
Maybe they should drop Bill Gates into one
That was never a realistic prediction. I rolled my eyes and laughed every time someone said it.
Why try to modify nature to fit our whims? How about working with nature so the impact isn't as severe, or *gasp* benefit from the storm? (think if you could just harness even a fraction of a percent of the energy involved in keeping a hurricane going...)
Actually a hundred miles or so east of where Ike hit.
(1) one that is over the islands now, entering the caribbean....I'm not hearing anything on this and it looks to develop??
(2) one that is going to move over the islands in a day or two??
(3) TD 2
(4) wave coming off Africa
Does anyone else see this? If so, are there any comments on the first one? Thanks
i must ask where your seeing this...
living in mobile, yesterday's 18z wouldn't be fun.
flagged...
Or maybe build more effectively? Not right on the ocean and better wind resistant homes.
Do anyone remember this? I think our friend Billy can emulate that track.
18Z GFS.
Odds of that being right are 1 in 100.
Shocker!
Honestly, I have lost a lot of faith in Bastardi's forecasts. He has forecast a major 'cane to hit the NE for the past 4 years running.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result each time.
I think the NE GOM has an increased chance of a hit in 2009 vs. 2008, for what it's worth.
I'm in the process of doing that.....
My personal opinion is the two yellow blobs are really not going to be anything but some rain and weak winds. Nothing to get worked up over but still just have to watch it just in case. TD2 needs to be watched as I think the track is still very uncertain. The wave coming off of Africa def needs to be watched as the models are in line with each other and make it turn into a monster but that is still 2 weeks away.
Also some posted images are a red X, and poster "Walshy" avatar shows up as a red X warning.
I haven't been infected yet and all scans have come back clean.
I am from Puerto Rico and historically when a system aproach and pass near or over Guadeloupe island we have a direct hit after.
Or maybe restore natural wetlands...
And not build on barrier islands...
Dont wish that on us...was that model you posted the GFS?
I really hate that they're showing the same thing, too!
I've been having to deep-breathe all day...
But it's only a week away from the islands....
i flag every political " off topic" post...don't get your panties in a wad or think your special ;)...
now back to the true topic on hand.
im curious to see how our td and aoi act overnight...
Yes...where do you reside?
keep an eye on the official forecasts of this site and do not pay attention to all the long range models as these tend to epic fail and people keep raising panic unnecessarily here. just track the storms, have fun, and be safe
It is one thing to flag people for political reasons, it is entirely something different to wish death and or pain on someone whom you are extremely unlikely to have met, just because of a different viewpoint.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS DECREASED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN
Which storm?
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