TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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"Yet" If it keeps doing what it's doing that'll change at the next update IMO.
Have to admit that model is so scary for us in Puerto Rico, brings a monster to our shores... fingers cross for models to be wrong.
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 14:41:41 N Lon : 30:33:18 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.7 2.9 3.4
Atlantic
green ball icon02L.TWO
East Pacific
green ball icon91E.INVEST
green ball icon09E.NINE
green ball icon08E.FELICIA
Central Pacific
green ball icon08C.FELICIA
green ball icon01C.MAKA
West Pacific
green ball icon91W.INVEST
green ball icon10W.ETAU
green ball icon09W.MORAKOT
Yea I am right now the street and it is dark over the house. I really need to cut my grass but it wont stop raining.
Not really. TAFB and SAB at T1.5 support 25kts.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP092009
21:00 PM UTC August 11 2009
====================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression Nine-E (1006 hPa) located at 15.1N 128.8W or 1170 NM west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 15.0N 132.3W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 14:41:41 N Lon : 30:33:18 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.7 2.9 3.4
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -12.3C Cloud Region Temp : -30.1C
Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Note: The Center and Cloud Temp. indicates still potencial to up at same level
Maybe they can use the tropical storm as a ploy for the resurrection of Juliette!
Sorry back to weather. Felicia looking like quite the shell of her former self now...
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/satfloat.html
If so, not likely by more than a few minutes. Just a little bit younger hardware, if I am reading right...I think.
I need to do a little more digging to answer that better, though.
I hear you are getting older. You'll never find it on accident but a little birdie, that happens to be an old pirate-in-a-dress, told us you were having a B-day. Happy B-day, should we not see ya tomorrow.
Not according to the new models. They shifted south. Don't make calls this early.
Right, more like "brushing lightly against Hawaii."
Not saying much since there have only been 2.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009
.DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES
AND OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS SECOND...STRONGER AND MORE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ALONG 53 WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY SHARP DRYING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. MOISTURE
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL AGAIN INTERACT
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...
TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER LOCALLY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.
THEREAFTER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM TPC/NHC ON THIS SYSTEM.
IN ADDITION...WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TROPICAL WAVE
BEHIND IT...AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
INTERESTING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A REMINDER...IT IS AUGUST AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY A
TIME WHEN THE TROPICS BECOME MORE ACTIVE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY...AS WE
APPROACH THE MORE ACTIVE PART OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.
Yep tomorrow me and Docndswamp share a birthday...
Leo, explains a lot huh?
With the tropics active, I am sure I will be around.
it's weak so its going to go almost due west. big threat to northern islands.
Still can't say whether or not it's going to recurve, although it seems like the most likely scenario given the position of the B-High.
That was is 09E....
*cough* Bermuda
Once the new machine's output is declared operational, I am certain that the old machine will still be run in a redundant fashion for some time to come. I cannot imagine NCEP not having the other one in an entirely redundant fashion should Stratus have any issue in the near future...always a possibility with new hardware. I have seen IB switches that work for a couple of months only, daughter cards that do the same, compiler-specific problems that only crop up when certain values are calculated, etc.
I would not say that yet. Even if this does recurve, Bermuda is still out there. It is way to early to determine exactly what will happen. Even the most minor deviation from track or intensity could make a thousand miles of difference in the end.
You sure about that. What if your sky were beet-red like the radar? That would bother me.
Isn't it two models? Stratus and Cirrus?
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 14:41:41 N Lon : 30:33:18 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.7 2.9 3.4
Those are definitely Ana numbers...
TD2 is putting a hell of a fight. If it did not have such a closed circulation, the thing would had most certainly dissipated by now. And the eastern atlantic needs to be more favorable for tropical development if pre Bill is to develop. A system that thrives during DMAX and nearly dissipates during DMIN means that it is on the precipice of life or death. Pre Ana, TD 2, lets see what happens in the next couple of days.
You know if you'd come back for one last show on behalf of Portlight, we could do a whole lot of good :~)
He seemed real interested in the future system.
Im about 30 miles east and it is right on the door step. we are about to get rocked. I can tell over in Gulfport you all just ate it pretty good. We got wind warnings out for 60mph.
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