TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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That's a moronic comment.
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.
TD2
AOI
I don't know why I waited so long. Worth every penny and no virus worries at all!
I'm taking you up on that one. ;)
Lol. Imagine if if it comes no where near there.
Bill are you talking about Fuijiwara effect?
if you have a pc, just get AV Norton blocks everything...
Never gets above Tropical Storm
RE:
All I did was click a page link to go back to a previous page and that's when it happened.
You CANNOT get a virus from reading a blog.
Please Read and RE-read the following:
2025. thelmores 10:10 PM EDT on August 10, 2009 Hide this comment.
WIN-ANTIVIRUS, and variants are what I call "scare-ware"..... the virus will "spoof" itself as being an antivirus program, showing that you are infected with many viri.... but it actually is the virus.
The creators have gotten very creative, by placing the enable button behind anywhere you can click. Once the "pop-up" comes up, if you click on anything, you are basically screwed.
If you start getting "tons" of pop-ups, warning of Viri....... you are infected.....
once again, to remove, use this free program....
http://download.cnet.com/Malwarebytes-Anti-Malware/3000-8022_4-10804572.html
download, install, update, and do a QUICK scan.... this will get rid of the virus.
As far as where it came from, I would like just 10-minutes in a room with the virus writer! Introduce them to redneck justice! LOL
---------
Again:
The creators have gotten very creative, by placing the enable button behind anywhere you can click. Once the "pop-up" comes up, if you click on anything, you are basically screwed.
GFS hits florida
Its repositioned to TD2.
We'll have to wait
Do you think you may have to take your PC to get fixed somewhere? Or can you do it yourself?
I know we have a tech place around here and they only charge around 80 bucks which isnt bad considering. Maybe try calling around for prices if you cant fix the computer yourself. I know it sucks..
Sorry for what you're going through. That would tick me off.
I know! They get everyone in the whole state in a frenzy though. I, personally, don't bank on anything until it is within three days. I have seen way too man storms change complete paths till that point.
So...what do you think? Is that the reason for the curve southward?
Thanks for that information.
Drak, what anit-virus software were you running at the time?
I'm running that right now.
I downloaded it last night. First run had viruses show up. Removed them and smooth sailing since.
But...I had zero computer problems before running the scan.
OK thanks Storm
Avira
start up in safe mode to edit your registry.
Could be but we do not have two systems yet, the High might be building and getting stronger that would also push a system South.
Now I definitely won't get infected
I see what you're saying. I wasn't sure what the distance criteria was. It just seems to look like it when you play out the model run.
Drak... boot into Safe Mode. There you can use "MSCONFIG" to turn OFF all registry based loading app during start up and do what you gotta do... assuming you can't do what you need to do in Safe Mode (such as cleaning, etc...).
51w wave to become a closed circulation?
Link
Won't let me go into safe mode
I live on the east coast too. The eventual path of 99 and the next wave willl ultimately be determined by the westerlies and the constant east to west shifting of the Bermuda High. Its all timing. The Gulf is just as susceptible to these next few systems as the east coast is. If the Bermuda High is a little stronger than what the GFS is showing late next week and that trough is a day or two later than what is forecast, then it becomes a south Florida and eventual Gulf storm.
wow...up to name calling already this early in the new blog...have a feeling alot of individuals will be banned this season as it heats up...
NAM 12Z takes the wave near 53W to just south of PR in 60 hours....
I have a special commercial version of McAfee from my company so Im pretty well protected.
Ouch...
Exactly
Why is it so unlikely that something like this happen again?
Here in New England this is the one that we remember. There is a lot of timber (still!) on hillsides (underneath new growth, of course) that was blown down by this storm.
I ask this because the early TD2 track looks like this. And no, I'm not wishcasting, I realize that there's a very small probability of such a storm happening out of this system.
But WHY? I'm not a meterologist.
Thanks for your help.
Time to reboot the computer.
Not very strong.
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