TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 — Blog Index
models say 27-28ºC only down 0.5ºC next 24 hrs, so TD2 has to continous strong at same speed.
TS ANA in 6-12hrs for sure.
I dont believe that scenario would happen here. There is quite a bit of distance from each other both in terms of longitude and latitude.
Hey. IF TD2 does nothing else, it'll serve as a path moistener for that much anticipated African wave.
Oh me too! I think that more people are starting to prepare ahead of time, and the state helps to motivate by offering that "tax holiday" weekend.
I remember that when Gustav was approaching there wasnt that horrible mad rush that I remember for so many other storms before.
Also something cool that happened: I live near the Tanger mall, and I had gone to get subway at Tanger the Sunday before Gustav was supposed to hit. When I pulled away from Subway there were pallets of well over 1,000 cases sitting in the middle of the Tanger Mall parking lot...I pulled up and saw a couple of ppl loading their cars.
Apparently one of the businesses was feeling generous and just dumped the water right there in the parking lot! It wasnt expired either, Nestle Brand. I took about 24 cases and distributed among my family...My poor Civic was a low rider in the back due to all the weight. lol
Ok, thanks.
Yup
Has trended slightly further north on the blob coming off Africa. Looks like an east coast event on this run.
Has TD2 weaker then the GOM low on the end of the run and getting swept north, east of the USA and dying.
Takes the wave at 53W into the GOM and makes landfall along the north-central/NE GOM coast. Stronger on this run.
East Central Florida..
Look at that~ KMLB mentions it in their forecast even..
WED NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ARE IN
STORE FOR FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE EAST COAST TROUGH. BERMUDA HIGH RESPONDS
ACCORDINGLY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLELING THE
COAST WHICH WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE BEACHES THU AND
FRI. GFS FORECASTS A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE INTO AREA
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF FORECASTS THE INCREASED MOISTURE BAND BUT HARD
TO SEE WAVE IN SURFACE PRESSURE. THE CURRENT 50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SATURDAY STILL LOOK GOOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN LATER
SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. NO REASON TO
DEPART MUCH FROM MOS TEMP GUIDANCE.
&&
Oh & this is kinda odd at the bottom of MLB discussion..
SHORT TERM/MARINE...REYNES AS MLB BACKUP
LONG TERM/AVIATION...NOAH AS MLB BACKUP
Thes two don't work there. My office doesn't have the swine flu or worse...dum dum dum dum..the WU flu does it?
It seems most people on here are already calling it that.
Almost Ana. Just needs to rise 0.2 points.
The Little Blob at 62 in the SE Caribbean is looking better developed this afternoon.
yep..been watching it myself..
24 hrs seems more reasoanble, given the sat presentation.
The other estimates are much lower. Also, the TD still looks ragged. If it can pull off another good dmax last night it will be Ana. Just not yet.
TS ANA by 5pm
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 14:40:41 N Lon : 30:16:18 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.4 2.7 3.1
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -8.8C Cloud Region Temp : -31.5C
Scene Type : SHEAR (0.19^ TO DG)
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
The properties said something about "Georgia" "monument" and "genocide."
That should definitely be reported.
No.
I saw that too. I didn't click it.
wow, and double wow cuz the GFS is showing the same thing. wierd
(And there is no link posted at the bottom of this picture!)
It is WAAAAAAAAAAAY too far out to be guessing on whether a major will make it into the gulf, or form in the gulf.
Are you asking this in order to get prepared or something? Because if so... you should already be prepared. Personally, I have my hurricane kit *done* by June 1 each year.
My bad...
That was the 00z run. Too many tabs open.
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 14:40:41 N Lon : 30:16:18 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.4 2.7 3.1
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : 0.0mb
Center Temp : -8.8C Cloud Region Temp : -31.5C
Scene Type : SHEAR (0.19^ TO DG)
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
shit
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Well that looks familiar.
wow, and double wow cuz the GFS is showing the same thing. wierd
uh-oh...that's not good...
i clicked it and my computer is fine
TD2 still has a little ways to go before its named, look at very ragged, altough it looks pretty good on visible its mostly low level clouds and outflow.
NOUS42 KWNO 111726
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1714Z TUE AUG 11 2009
NEW NOAA NWS NCEP SUPERCOMPUTER IMPLEMENTATION UPDATE
AS THE FINAL TEST OF THE NEW SUPERCOMPUTERS..NCEP IS PLANNING
TO DISSEMINATE ALL 12Z CYCLE PRODUCTS OPERATIONALLY FROM THE
NEW STRATUS SUPERCOMPUTER IN GAITHERSBURG ON AUGUST 12...IF
THE TEST GOES WELL THEN WE WILL DECLARE STRATUS OPERATIONAL
AT 18Z ON AUGUST 12 AND NCEP PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN ON
STRATUS.
ORIGINALLY..THE ADVERTISED PLAN WAS FOR THE NEW SUPERCOMPUTERS
TO BE DECLARED OPERATIONAL ON AUGUST 18, HOWEVER WITH THE
ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC
NEXT WEEK NCEP NCO HAS DECIDED TO IMPLEMENT THE NEW
SUPERCOMPUTER ON AUGUST 12 IF POSSIBLE IN ORDER TO MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE TRANSITION ON NWS OPERATIONS.
AS WITH PREVIOUS UPGRADES...THE MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE
NEW COMPUTER MAY BE DISCONTINUOUS FROM THOSE PRODUCED ON THE
OLD COMPUTER/PREVIOUS CYCLE ESPECIALLY AFTER DAY 5. WHY?
THE HARDWARE/COMPILERS USED BY THE TWO COMPUTERS DIFFER AND
THE DATA DECODERS/ASSIMILATION SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
INDEPENDENTLY ON EACH SYSTEM. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL CREATE
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN MODEL INITIAL CONDITIONS CAUSED BY
ASSIMILATING DIFFERENT AMOUNTS OF DATA AND USING SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT FIRST GUESS FIELDS. SMALL NON-METEOROLOGICAL
DIFFERENCES EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO RANDOM NOISE - TRIGGERING
CONVECTION IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS AT DIFFERENT TIMES.
THESE TYPES OF DIFFERENCES GROW QUICKLY AND TEND TO
SATURATE AFTER A FEW HOURS OF MODEL TIME. AVERAGED OVER A
LARGE NUMBER OF CASES THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT ONE MACHINE
IS BETTER THAN THE OTHER...OR DIFFERENT IN ANY OTHER
SYSTEMATIC WAY.
EMC HAS BEEN MONITORING THE MODEL SUITE RUNNING ON THE NEW
COMPUTER AND RESULTS HAVE SHOWN THAT THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE
DIFFERENCE IN SKILL SCORE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED SINCE THE MODELING SUITE HAS NOT CHANGED.
$$
lol I know cuz I'm refreshing the 12Z run as we speak but I did not get to see the 00Z run.
Reported
When the tropics are active keep talk to relevant subjects, making fun of someones avatar isn't tolerated regardless of activity.
Well we said the same thing yesterday and look what happened overnight. It just needs what happened last night to happen again. It lasted better today than yesterday.
Viewing: 1201 - 1251
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 — Blog Index