TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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Reader Comments
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what the hell it is getting stronger 33kt
• Enhanced rainfall is expected across the eastern Pacific and Central America and
reduced rainfall is expected across India and Indonesia. Tropical cyclogenesis is
favored across the eastern Pacific and east-central Atlantic.
And just like that I have 13 spyware warnings.
Im out till I can fix this.
Doubtful at this point:
AL, 02, 2009081118, , BEST, 0, 146N, 299W, 25, 1006, TD
No TS at 5pm.
What is getting stronger? The possible "Ana"?
Yes, I was wondering about that shear map.
ShearMapHonestly
Holy What Happened to Strong Easterlies in the Caribbean Batman! And what is that setup about?
Why are the numbers different from the T#?
Awwww gee...lol...thanks Stormw..:)
In a word, " AUGUST "
It's funny cause I've spread word around, but noone seems interested...it's usually that way until something actually gets into the Gulf really...which is sad.
The TAFB and SAB estimates are done by actual people. ADT is not.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
229 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009
PATTERN SHOULD FULLY TRANSITION ON FRIDAY AS STRONGER HIGH PRES
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. STRONGER AND
DEEPER EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH GFS AND
NAM MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 52W. THEREFORE, SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS INDICATED BY MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY LOOK REASONABLE.
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND PERHAPS MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES, THERE
WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER AREA-
WIDE. HOWEVER, FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE POSITIONS CAN BE DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN AS WE GET TO OUR LATITUDE, AND IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THAT BULK OF THE MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. NEVERTHELESS,
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR SATURDAY AND
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND VERY WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE
ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA.
Thank you very much Storm! So, it looks like upward motion for the eastern Atlantic for nearly all the rest of August. Things could get interesting.
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 14:40:14 N Lon : 30:10:45 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1006.6mb/ 33.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.3 2.7 3.0
Thanks. I guess I shouldn't look at the T# so much.
The SSD lowered their Dvorak numbers to T1.5/2.0. So probably not.
Sounds like someone was just sniffing around.
TD2
Well, living here in SWLA, during hurricane season, i'm prepared reguardless. I would rather be safe then sorry and just keep up to date on the tropics.
What does it look like for the GOM this year? I know the waters are HOT!!! - Since it is getting closer to peak season, is anyone seeing anything that would indicate a storm in the Gulf? A possible Major storm?
Hey, good day
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
138 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009
LONG TERM (THURS NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
DOWN INTO AL/GA THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
NUDGES ITS WAY BACK IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY...WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATING BACK NORTH INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA BY FRIDAY EVENING. KEPT NEAR CLIMO POPS (50% INLAND) IN
THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH PW`S AROUND/JUST BELOW 2 INCHES AND MOST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING UP TO OUR NW (THEREFORE
EXPECTING MOSTLY SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION).
LOOKING FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE SE FL COAST SAT MORNING...SENDING A PLUME OF
MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA. PW`S ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE 2
INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY...AND HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS INLAND BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND/JUST BELOW CLIMO
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES.
THE TROPICAL WAVE HEADS UP TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOME DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE ON MONDAY. TEMPS MON AND TUES
AROUND/JUST ABOVE CLIMO (AROUND 92-93 DEGREES) IN ANTICIPATION OF
THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE PENINSULA BY MIDWEEK HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH TIMING/TRACK IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
Quoting Joanie38:
I guess the people in the GOM are bitting their nails...reguardless! Ummmm, INCLUDING me!!!
It's funny cause I've spread word around, but noone seems interested...it's usually that way until something actually gets into the Gulf really...which is sad.
this is so true...
It looks like the convection is starting to grow and getting deeper
Bye, I'm out...bee back in 4hrs
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TROPICAL STORM ETAU (T0909)
3:00 AM JST August 12 2009
=========================================
Subject: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Etau (994 hPa) located at 32.7N 145.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as moving east at 20 knots.
RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale-force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in south quadrant
60 NM from the center in north quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 33.4N 152.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 35.4N 154.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 39.1N 160.8E - EXTRATROPICAL LOW
Hi
What does ECFL stand for? thanks.
Dynamical 18Z.
models say 27-28ºC only down 0.5ºC next 24 hrs, so TD2 has to continous strong at same speed.
TS ANA in 6-12hrs for sure.
Viewing: 1151 - 1201
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