TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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As of now the 850mb vort max has continued to move off the coast. Surprisingly enough it has already strengthened as soon as it hit the water as seen here.
Current:
3 hours ago:
Divergence is excellent with the wave as of now and convergence is good. Wind shear is about 15 knots from the east so shear shouldnt be a problem.
Latest divergence:
Shear:
Now for the track and possible strength. This wave has great model support from all of the reliable models including the ECMWF and the GFDL. The models even went as far as showing a major hurricane hitting the Antilles last night. But for now I expect slow organization for the next 48 hours. Once it reaches the CATL it should reach TS storm strength possibly even becoming a hurricane later on. The track should generally take this on a W-WNW for the next 72 hours and eventually near the Leeward islands. We should see the NHC mention this later today and possibly designate this an invest tomorrow if it continues to organize.
Well im not a 100% lol. But yea I live recklessly too.
LOL..i don't think so....Dr. M. is just covering his you know what.....which is what he should do.
Exactly.. it's a very bad virus. At least you were able to fix it yourself.
You CANNOT get a virus from reading a blog.
You CAN get a virus from clicking on a link that you do not know where its taking you.. or what it does.. ie execute a program or DL.
Use common sense.. if its taking you offsite.. or downloading something... then don't do it.
Nice little outlook.
009AUG11 124500 1.5 1012.0/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 5.08 -29.85
2009AUG11 131500 1.6 1011.4/ +0.0 / 26.0 1.6 1.7 3.0 0.2T/hour OFF OFF 0.64 -28.99
2009AUG11 134500 1.6 1011.4/ +0.0 / 26.0 1.6 1.7 3.0 0.2T/hour OFF OFF -5.70 -28.23
Never click a link without knowing where it's taking you. Also, look at the person who is posting it. I think most of us know who to trust and who not to trust.
It did not take me to another site. I was in the blog while it happened. Let's say I clicked the link to go to page one of this blog. Then it open the page and froze the browser.
Very strange. I've never heard of something like that happening without physically clicking a bad link.
Yes very nice post chaser!
I was not affected when many were complaining and performed a complete scan with 0 results. I am a lurker, for the most part, so I seldom follow links. If posters place the URL it is more likely your AV programs will be likely to find and stop problems before they get to your computer.
In regards to the tropics... how long until someone panics in South Florida about what may become Ana?
Anyway, I'm not a weather expert, but I've been looking at the track for the 1938 hurricane, and it passed north of the islands, but then instead of recurving out to sea, went due north.
I'm guessing that's a rare occurrence, because nobody ever seems to worry about it, but what could make something like that happen again?
I ask because the first part of this TD2 track looks an awful lot like the 1938 hurricane.
Thanks beforehand for your answers.
What browser do you use? I wonder if that had something to do with why some people had problems and others did not.
Exactly.
No, please do click it. It's not like I'm a newbie here, and if you right click the link to check the properties first, you'll see it directs to the Wunderblogs.
I've had that happen to me, though it was on another blog and not here, so it is possible.. Either way, knowing my computer, I probably shouldn't be taking too many chances, might head off for a while from lurking myself.
Im following the TVCN for now.
On my laptop not on my main computer
As soon as WS gets on here.
The local television weathermen start the panic as early as possible. The waves were front page on local papers websites in my area. haha
Hey Storm! Any luck with WTSP they you could use your expertise.
Watch as you put itt in motionn how the two seem to affect each other.
Oh they will now with the season heating up.
If WS makes it through the week unbanned, a drink is on me.
Wow, that is one huge mama wave.
P451, please send me a link to that satellite imagery
LOL.
I have a Mac too I still ran Avast! though to check for viruses even if the threat is low better to be prepared just in case.
That's a moronic comment.
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