TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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Get the pad ready if the latter happens...lol.
????
Yup, huge anticyclone is expected to build over east coast, and troughing over the midwest--the ideal condition for east coast hits.
Possibly.
Too early to say, although model runs are consistant with bringing both systems at least close by. Wait for another few days before we have any high level of certainty
Nice job Jason, I see you are actually being serious now.
Of course you always welcomed here....anybody in the blog come up to my pad i'm throwing a hurricane party...i got Long island's and that stuff you was talking about yesterday Acemett lol
thats not good :(
When nature starts to act unusual then that's when its time to think about what to do. its never to early to leave but it can be fatal to leave it to late.
True but what we do need to see is that the GFS is pointing to a trend. THat trend seems to favor a U.S. East Coast strike sometime this season.
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 164500 UTC
Lat : 14:38:34 N Lon : 29:54:25 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1009.0mb/ 30.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.0 2.3 3.4
ok now you are being an alarmist, this thing isnt even developed yet and its 15 days away, there is no need to freak people out for no reason
Now has ANA going out to sea
What you need to pay attention to is the fact that The models are (for the most part) Agreeing that Anna and Bill will spin up.
Bill Looks to be a mondster by most models.
You all wished for it ....now you have it. The Sleeping giant (ATL Season) seems to be waking up.
As it is not listed here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT2 shtml/111445.shtml?
And the rules for listing it there are:
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
The probability of seeing it in S Fla by 12 Z Sun are essentially zero. Beyond that is not calculated due to the futility of doing so with the gross error of our forecasts of such a duration.
Actual, honest answer: IF it makes it across the pond, I personally do not expect it to still be at such a low latitude. Closer to 30N by the time it would reach the East Coast.
No. Everyone needs to watch this. There are just certain areas at higher than normal risk at this time.
The T# went up didn't it?
Yep.
I typically don't look at global models for strength. The conditions that allow the second storm to thrive will be present for the first storm since they are so close together. None show TD2 becoming a hurricane but as directed by the NHC it is possible if it stays south of the forecast track.
That is because it is too aggressive on its strength and underestimates the high...
Exactly! The over hype and hysteria is typical on this blog. "Bill" has hardly emerged off of the coast yet and we're already talking about a track of 8 days plus.
35 MPH.
LMAO!
Yea thanks. Thats why I was asking, because they are so close so conditions shouldnt be that different.
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