TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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More you say?
Well you asked for it...
136
Yes, not a good thing...
Easily a two. About 100-110mph.
Accuweather get ticked at you for putting that on here? I notice it's their pro-site.
I'm just asking...hate to see you get in trouble.
Link
And the error on this prediction is only +/- 2,000 miles!
24 hours out is in the realm of possibility kiddo.
The next 10 days will be interesting for sure!
Probably focused on the virus problem at WU?
Like an altered version of Ivan.
Hey! What are your thoughts?
yeah well remember, the gfs is awful with intensity.... it is always understated, lol
See TD 2 in the upper left. This one will follow
Im taking screen shots. Its like it never even happened. Im also a moderator on their forums so its no big deal.
Near category 3 hurricane strength:
OK.
992 is the mark used most the time for a Hurricane cat 1..although that can differ a few mb's up or down depending on size.
I think he meant that this system could be stronger than what the GFS indicates, plus he was joking partly lol
is it at 2.0 that it gets a name?
Its so strong its actually showing an eye.
Easily Cat 3
162
Plus... he is a SHE lol
2.5 is when it would get named.
No disrespecting here, I like them models but let's get a named storm first on the list before calling it Bill. It could be as well be Ana if TD2 doesn't develop...
You have mail
Data from Atmos Albany shows the wave axis is just off-shore. Gradual increase in mid level vorticity that should build down to the surface. Satellite derived winds depicted lower to mid level curvature and an 850mb vorticity maximum at the equatorward end of the wave axis. System currently lacks the convergence we saw with TD2. Upper level winds are currently 10-20 knots over the system but as the system moves further north shear should be more conducive for development. Dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer should not be a problem as the series of successive waves and TD2 has cleared the path. The cyclone phase evolution diagram shows SSTs at 29-29C which is conducive for development. The system is fairly large in nature and gradual development is to be expected. I believe we may have a tropical depression from this weekend later in the week and a potential tropical storm over the weekend.
oops my bad lol
ECMWF...CMC....
Viewing: 501 - 551
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