TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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I agree in less than 24hrs will be TS ANA
Conditions are good for develop.
Wow. Talk about slow news day.
lol
I think the problem has been fixed. But if another virus pops up, then we can move there.
I wonder now since we have a new blog if the virus is gone... if it was a link in the last blog it should be ok.
He said....I recommend people not read comments on any wunderground blog.
It could just follow though. And I wouldnt want to infect his blog.
I think it was a link.
I've had zero computer problems.
Link - Greyelf's blog
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 14:26:56 N Lon : 29:11:35 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.6 /1011.4mb/ 26.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
1.6 1.7 3.0
I haven't either and I was around the day people had issues.
Same here.
For example... DON'T click this stuff.
the post itself
I received the virus early last nignt and I didn't click on a link in the past 4 days. It took me most of the night to fix. I was hesitant to log on this morning but I live recklessly. I'm hoping you are right.
I don't understand how that is possible without clicking a link or something.
(I can't remember what it's called when two storms are close to each other and pivot around a common center)
But...its so cute (the dog).
or read what the comments wrere made about the virus
im confused
All I did was click a page link to go back to a previous page and that's when it happened. It had to be in the post.
I am not saying he did it, but maybe malware encodes itself in some posts.
Yikes...I had that one a few months ago. Had to wipe out the hard drive and reinstall Windows XP.
I wasn't posting when the post was made. I came back in about an hour after that.
You may be right. Anyone know who posted the post? Apparently not...I haven't seen their name mentioned.
As of now the 850mb vort max has continued to move off the coast. Surprisingly enough it has already strengthened as soon as it hit the water as seen here.
Current:
3 hours ago:
Divergence is excellent with the wave as of now and convergence is good. Wind shear is about 15 knots from the east so shear shouldnt be a problem.
Latest divergence:
Shear:
Now for the track and possible strength. This wave has great model support from all of the reliable models including the ECMWF and the GFDL. The models even went as far as showing a major hurricane hitting the Antilles last night. But for now I expect slow organization for the next 48 hours. Once it reaches the CATL it should reach TS storm strength possibly even becoming a hurricane later on. The track should generally take this on a W-WNW for the next 72 hours and eventually near the Leeward islands. We should see the NHC mention this later today and possibly designate this an invest tomorrow if it continues to organize.
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