Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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An area of low pressure associated with a Tropical wave has become better organized over night. This system has a medium chance 30-50% of becoming a Tropical Cyclone in the next 48 hours.
A Strong Tropical Wave is emerging off the African coast line. Conditions are favorable for development and there is a medium chance, 30-50% of this becoming a Tropical Cyclone in the next 48 hours.
A tropical wave associated with an small area of low pressure near the Windward Islands have diminished. There is a low chance, less than 20% of this system becoming a Tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
Not so sure about the middle one.
Sammy we could easily have 2-3 named storms by this time next week....time will tell.....i think 99L will be named first........Wow are Caribbean blob is REALLY like the night lite.....it is really blowing up!
GFS 6 hours.
I agree with number 3...number 2 I'm not certain of, and number 1 I'm more along the lines of "Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with the broad area of low pressure west of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form today or tomorrow as it moves westward at 10 to 15 MPH"
Just a guess...
www.avast.com
No need for a double post.
BAMM is not used for that....its used to forecast tracking along with BAMS and BAMD
??
The inverted trof over the NE gulf and Central Fla at the 120 GFS is more intriguing. As a model developer once said to me..."beyond day-7: Hopeless"
The virus:
H1W0 (hurricane's 1 WU zero)
Ya learn something everyday! Thanks.
Well thats 5 days out.. so :)
Its absolutely not.
Do you even have it?
We'll see how long it lasts.
Many thing going for it.
7 knots of shear.
Little SAL
Lower latitude
Model support
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I dont even know what to say...
Good, thanks!
Nice to see you Ryan!
Hope things are going well with you.
May I add, persistence model support. Heck that GFS model looks like a Georges and a Isabel all combined into one!
Just like 90L had. Jus sayin'.
But, I do think one of these waves will eventually form into Ana. However, I won't be surprised if they both fizzle
There is no way to answer that..
If it became a hurricane it would have to grow substantially. The eye type/shape/size would all depend on strength, track, upper level conditions, and much more.
You very well could be correct..
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I'd like to see some more convective expansion overnight before I get too optimistic over its development. But its getting close.
Yeah, things are good here. However, I hope this future ''Bill'' isn't as strong as the GFS forecasts it to be
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