Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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East coast including Florida, or are you thinking more of a threat to Carolina?
SE states
cmon...its a model 7 days out on a system that hasn't even left the coast yet...relax...
The entire eastern seaboard
Lets hope this thing stays away.
Rain flowing freely here in Barbados, very little wind though.
Probably won't curve north and out....
9 days out though.
I mentioned the Sountern Caribbean earlier and no response. Glad some others are noticing.
also, people stop paying so much attention to long range models PLEASE. as i say they are for 'entertainment purposes only'. just track the storm and refrain from making fools out of yourselves :)
Off the top of my head; Charley made landfall in the afternoon, Dennis in 2005 did as well. So did Floyd in 1999
I will be shocked as well. GFS/ECMWF combo is the best there is when it comes to cyclogenesis and both model agree on a similar 500mb pattern coming up
This is hilarious... models at 5 days plus are at best questionable....
Models at 9 days out..and people think the sky is falling... I think there is a nursery rhyme about this?
you love feeding the hysteria don't you, your probably sitting back laughing...lol
good on ya...it is slightly amusing.
"QUOTE"
Going back to 1900, 61.11% of Atlantic Hurricane seasons with 1st named storm starting after August 9th saw a major hurricane hit land. The majority of landfalls in those seasons were in South Florida with 5 majors.
There's a chance 99L will leave a weakness in the ridge that will allow it to recurve. However, that door will only be open for a short period as they pass the islands. If 99L gains to much latitude, the door will slam shut and the beast keeps moving west.
Gustav made landfall in the morning just last year, Katrina (2005) made landfall early morning also.
Doesn't the NHC look at 1-2 week models for the MJO? I've read their discussions on that and it does go out for a 2-3 week period.
Sorry...I'm not laughing about any of this.
The MJO is a lot more predictable then an individual system isn't it?
The MJO is also known as the 30 to 60 day oscillation, 30 to 60 day wave, or intraseasonal oscillation.
Stay safe, Play safe, Blog safe.
I have seen several comments regarding the virus that people have gotten. Was it from a link posted here? If so, PLEASE share so others of us can avoid it.
Thanks
all directions possible but east.
It looks like it gets PR and maybe Haiti.
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