Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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Good idea.
true for invest 99 but, the bill wave is not as impressive as i thought it would have been when it came off the coast
Apple has finally acknowledged that spyware and viruses are a threat for Mac OS X, as well as the latest operating system in the works.
From securemac.com
Posts 706 and 732 have been removed...
I feared this might happen LOL
SS, Hey I was wondering how can i find that? If ya wouldn't mind telling me. TIA
Sheri
also found another tech article that talks about the fact it gets by almost all virus programs. The key to not spreading it is to not click on renew or buy or run the virus program, and to run a program meant to remove it. It can come attached to an ad, but the worst damage is done when it is executed.
It is also a good idea to log off the internet and/or any network you are immediately upon seeing the popup.
I think it's past that already lol.
Link
http://noscript.net/
So you don't think anything out there right now is going to develop?
LOL! Definately... especially with this virus crap going around.
no computer connected to the internet is 100% safe from viruses.
That's when my browser crashed. After restarting sys (always do that after a browser crash) when it went back in and attempted to "recover" to the tabs I had open... no go again. Freeze.
Went back just now, and if you scroll through, those posts are missing. My guess is they were the culprits. Drak was on at the time, too.
Oh lawd, we would all be in cardiac arrest! lol... Night!
Well, 99L has underwhelmed us so far and now all eyes are on the "Bill " system.
I am still watching the Barbados blob which has now died down but may refire tonight.
My take away from all I have seen so far is that nothing is in any hurry to organize into a tropical cyclone.
Invest 99 looks pretty dismal right now.
The one behind it may suffer the same fate, if 99 has not left a lot of moisture behind it. There is still plenty of dry air in the Trop. Atl. Unusual for this time of year? I think so.
If the wave can hold together until it gets to the Caribbean, it could possibly blow back up. Temps there are hot, and there has been plenty moist air around there/here.
We even had a tornado, filmed by a couple of people, yesterday, near here. I did not see it. Most unusual. No damage from that.
you are wrong the first trojan/virus on mac os x was discovered a couple of months ago
Actually, I've even seen cases where trojans can be piggy-backed on embedded images, so even an image redirected from another site might not be safe...
I can prove MAC's get viruses. They make anti-virus tools for the MAC. They are complete with a pattern file.
I rest my case...
what island was the tornado?
99L looks terrible.
NOT a good idea. Sorry, but it's way to easy to put a bogus URL in the text body then put another in the actual link. This gives a false sense of security.
p.s. 2 good programs are Malwarebytes and Spybot search and destroy, google them (I won't link to them) :)
It's gonna need to do a little more than that, though
Malwarebytes-Anti-Malware
I do a lot of virus removal, and this "free" program removes most of these "scare-ware" virus's.
Well yeah but at least its starting to fire off some convection.
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