Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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i guess, still you have to admit a 2-mile-high wave is pretty tall.
plus if you're there, its not gonna be inches, its gonna be a 2mile high 10,000degree farenheit plasma hitting you like a rick james bslap.
Looks better but 99L still has better structure
maybe if we mix the convection with 99Ls circulation we could get a TD =P
G
And another one that I use for secure use.
I was using IE though due to a 404 error when the attack occurred Saturday here.
Or just go Linux. Not immune, but as close as you can get for free.
I am growing increasingly board of that show.
Thanks Pat,
I run FFox3.5 here.
General Question:
Has anybody here using Firefox had an issue with "malware" from the WU site in these last couple of days?
CRS
Yup Avira is one of my favorite; it uses only 1MB ram to run at real time.
Recommended back ups are malwarbyte, superantipyware, microsoft security essentials (moro project), and comodo antivirus.
Microsoft security essentials is not yet released, but works very effectively. It is detecting more than avira, but uses more memory..
Hey WeatherStudent, why is anything posted under your screen name hidden? I constantly have to click on the "show" button in order to view your comments.
Yes..
and WS put me down for B via C...
Lol, its like that for a reason. You don't want to read his posts.
ihave
anti v
spy ware
mal ware
fraud protection
pop up blocker
features i pay 10 bucks a month for i also run ie win vista pro
Nevermind. Be nice, aggie. Be nice.
The plot always thickens when you're involved.
Yet he clearly forgets that the NHC gives it a Medium and the Barbados area is in low shear according to the maps. I've learned to ignore the weather channel, Dr. Lynons IS a forecaster, but he isn't allowed make forecasts it appears in my eyes, I think the weather channel makes them for him now.
Dry Air is killing 99L but, eliminating it in the process for 90L to be on Wednesday. With the moist environment, low shear and moderate SST's 90L could be a biggie.
Why are you smiling at me? That is creepy. Do that to StormW
I cant believe i missed it,but 4.5 inches of rain fell in an hours time,in Northern areas,many are counting their loses this evening.Wat a thing,eh.
I feel it for those People in Barbados,looks like more rain from that Low tomorrow.geeeze
I use firefox 3.5, I had issue earlier where it seemed like someone had controll over my mouse. Page keep jumping up and down. Switched to IE and it stopped. But no warnings.
The models do look rather scary on that wave.
How many models develop this CV Hurricane btw? Little lazy to find links ;)
Link
Major flooding today,what do you make of this area over Barbados.
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