Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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Yeah my browser says this page has "security certificate errors". Somebody must have posted something from a restricted access site.
Not much mixing, from what I've read, until the feature finds a shallower area; the energy is realtively evenly spread through the water column and does not cause much by way of preturbation. I'd guess it wouldn't have much effect on development and wouldn't even if it did move a lot of cold water upward as the tend to move very quickly(surface speeds over 200 knts?)
I actually had asked a similar question here quite awhile ago about whether the drop in pressure from a typhoon could possibly facilitate an impending earthquake. I ended up corresponding with a professor who I believe was at one of the universities in Texas, but he couldn't direct me to any specific studies on it. I wonder if any have been done since then...
yes but it wouldn't bring up cooler waters from the depths and disrupt the TCHP
This a Blog,..an internet source.
Nothing is gonna sneak up and develop on anyone .
The Folks at the NHC,US Navy and other reliable sources are always on top the frays. Not anyone here.
We observe,banter and yack
24 7 365,but at the end of the day,..were Hobbyists at best,..
Theres no such thing as a amateur Met.
Either you are are arent.
Just like there no amateur astronauts,..
Very unlikely. A tsunami is just energy moving in the water. While this energy does extend down to the thermocline, it doesn't cause the water to move at all at that level. A very small amount of water may be moved at the surface, but it is so little it is almost impossible to notice a tsunami in the open ocean at the surface.
not so much bring them up, as I understand it, as take them to shallower areas, as Flood said...
The Navy site has security cert errors; oddly most of the scientific sites posted by the military have security cert errors
Here's something I remember reading a little while ago, hope it helps somewhat:
"Can storms prevent nasty earthquakes? That's the suggestion of study showing that typhoons can trigger benign, "slow" quakes that ease the stress between tectonic plates.
Beneath Taiwan, a tectonic plate is diving under its neighbouring plate at one of the world's fastest rates. "You can almost watch them," says study co-author Alan Linde of the Carnegie Institution in Washington DC. Yet the island has had fewer big rumbles than you'd expect from such movement."
Link
Here has a little bit more:
Link
Not saying whether I agree with it or not, as it does seem quite far-fetched yet thought provoking in the same breath.
They had something similar i read about it was a show actually on History channel about this place in Alaska which they could use certain kind of beams to control weather in the trosphere...i dont know if it was Alpha beams or not but these two guys were doing a test and sent Alpha beams into the ground and 5 Minutes after they were done a 6.9 earthquake hit so the question was if the guys triggered the Earthquake with electromagnetic beams and they were saying that one day we could possibly make earthquakes
.
WHOA! Viruses? What do you mean, viruses?
Well not really, it wouldnt cause upwelling. Imagine a wave that moves accross all layers of different temperature without disturbing them, that's basically what I believe a tsunami would do based on my knowledge of the type of wave they are.
No surprises there...
Link
I am a certified Met at NC State. Well, ill be back later tonight to see if the convection fires back up.
Dr. Masters actually did a whole entry on this topic a long while back about the 2004 tsunami's effect on local and global weather conditions.
Tsunami Weather
...However, an examination of the sea surface temperature imagery from the days immediately following the earthquake shows that the tsunami had very little effect on the ocean temperature. While there was some minor cooling observed within 1 km of the shorelines closest to the earthquake's epicenter, by two days later, sea surface temperatures in the region showed no trace that anything unusual had happened. The impact of the tsunami on sea surface temperatures was less than that of a weak tropical storm! This is because while a tsunami can create tremendous waves and mixing of the water when it crashes ashore, this effect is limited to shallow waters 1 km or less from shore. The tsunami's impact in deep water is very limited. Satellite measurements of the tsunami's passage over the open ocean revealed a maximum wave height of only 50 cm (20 in), which caused very little stirring of the water over the open ocean. There is nothing at all to suggest that this tsunami, or any tsunami in recorded history, has had a significant impact on regional or global weather.
Well said.
True Pat, but I'm a professional blogger.
Yeah,when I visited JSC last April..they wouldnt even consider my application for NASA.
Even with a wunderground reference.
:)
But the pedant in me does have to point out that amateur astronomers pay a vital part in asteroid and comet monitoring in the solar system and beyond...
Aw dang pat, I feel ya I feel ya. NASA just wasn't looking for someone that qualified. ;)
Based on the post this morning I dont think many agreed that 99L would dissapate as fast as it did this afternoon...
I personally dont think the wave near Barbados will dissappear on us as quickly as some are thinking.
Im currently using my IT guys LAptop as he's giving my DELL a Lobotomy and upgrade.
Thus no Linkies from me till then.
As for application for astronaut, mine came back labeled HS, LMFAO...guess I'm out of luck LOL
No problem if you ever have a question just ask i aint the smartest cookie on here by any means but i will try my best to answer
It appears the trolls have advanced in technology.
Maybe NASA could still find a use for an aging hippie that quotes Lord Byron, huh?
Older than my Kids.
And to be sure amatuer astronmy has come miles in recent decades,as Shoemaker-Levy 9 was found by ametuers.
Always good to see another Star struck person here
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