Felicia not weakening; new African wave may develop
Hurricane Felicia has not weakened today, and continues to hold its own in spite of cool sea surface temperatures beneath it. Recent satellite imagery shows that the tops of thunderstorms surrounding the eye have cooled slightly, indicating that the updrafts sustaining the eyewall are maintaining their strength. The appearance of the hurricane has improved some today, with the storm assuming a more symmetric appearance.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Hurricane Felicia.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia have now fallen to 24.7°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, though. Wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Monday morning. By Monday night, shear will rise to 20 knots, and remain above 20 knots thereafter. The higher shear combined with the relatively cool SSTs should mean that Felicia will be rapidly weakening in its final 24 hours before reaching Hawaii. Several of the computer models continue to show that this shear will be high enough to tear Felicia apart before it reaches Hawaii, though it appears to me that Felicia's current strength and annular structure will help it resist the shear enough to allow the storm to hit Hawaii as a tropical depression with 35 mph winds. Regardless, Felicia will bring heavy rain Hawaii beginning on Monday morning, and these rains will have the capability of causing flash floods and mudslides. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first low-level investigation of Felicia this afternoon (around 10 am Hawaiian time). The NOAA jet also flies into Felicia today, and will drop a series of dropsondes that will be used to gather data that will be fed into today's 12Z and 00Z computer model runs.
Typhoon Morakot hits Taiwan
Typhoon Morakot hit Taiwan yesterday, battering the island with Category 1 winds and heavy rain. The Taipei airport recorded sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 76 mph, at the peak of the storm. Morakot killed 6 on Taiwan and 10 in the Philippines, and is headed towards a final landfall on mainland China as a tropical storm later today. Storm chaser James Reynolds intercepted the storm and posted videos on typhoonfury.com and Youtube. Morakot is still visible today on Taiwan radar.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of a spinning tropical wave leaving the coast of Africa. The image was taken at 8am EDT 8/8/09.
African tropical wave may develop
A strong tropical wave with a moderate amount of spin is moving off the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is under about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear and has sea surface temperatures beneath it of 27°C. These conditions are probably too marginal to allow development over the next two days. As the wave moves westward away from Africa over the next few days, wind shear should slowly decrease and the SSTs will warm, potentially allowing for some slow development. The UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS models all indicate the possibility that this will become a tropical depression 3 - 5 days from now. The ECMWF model forecasts that strong easterly winds over the wave will create too much shear to allow development. The wave is well south of the Saharan Air Layer, so dry air and African dust should not interfere over the next 3 - 5 days. I give the wave a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next seven days.
I'll have an update on Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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yes that is current
What are the chances we have the same profile pic....Go canes
Chillen man? Bro? Where is "sir" "good evening" WS and what have you done to him?
On topic, I think in my unprofessional opinion, that this wave has a good chance to develop into something with these conditions ahead. I just hope its a fish, we don't need anyone threatened after last year...
Yes... So true. Did you attend? I was there 90-94.
97-03
Tu sabes!!!
Got a link to your translator? TIA
Lambda Theta Phi
Blog patrolling
Felicia Floater - AVN Color Infrared Loop
Ohh boy.. Here we go. I have place for FIU too, granted when FIU and UM play, it's all UM for me.
Just remember, friends don't let friends go to FSU....
I was actually on the UM Main Campus a lot this week... Can't believe how much it has changed (and for the better). The landscaping is amazing, even the streets off san amaro are all amazing. (Just don't try to tow your boat through the area)
What are your current thoughts on intensity at Hawaiin landfall?
Couldn't agree with you more!!
I don't hate UM, I just don't get Miami's undying love for the Canes. I know its due to FIU being a newer school, and even newer in Athletics, but once FIU football becomes competitive (real soon) you can bet FIU will snag the average South Floridian.
Besides, FIU has the National Hurricane Center. :)
a good day.
its just leaving the african coast
Looking at the Loops and SST's here,click the Boxes for SSt's and The Forecast Points,.Felicia is doing a fine job of Maintaining.
But the Islanders should keep a wary eye on her.
Things have a way of changing when you least expect them in a Persistent Vortex.
Some have more Flavor than the avg.
She seems to be one.
Felicia AVN Loop
11N 16W
This satellite image shows storm systems (L-R) Gustav, Hanna, Ike and Josephine on September 2, 2008. (NOAA via Getty Images)
For whom it may concern this is my philosphy on this blog....No matter how much every Met wants to deny it deep down we all want a storm...its just like if your a baseball player you want a homerun and if your a football player you want a touchdown...its in our blood we crave on the thrill and the excitment...but some people on here are more realist and professional about it and if a storm doesn't have a chance to form they say it...Half of the time they right but that brings disappointment to the ones thrilling for the storm and the easiest thing to do is attack the person thats saying it won't form to make them seem less credible...nobody wants to see anyone in harm's way but deep down we all want a storm its not our fault its in our blood its our passion
Couldn't agree with you more!!
You can compare it to sports...every athlete wants success for themselves but they try not to show it because they don't want others to think they self-centered so when good things happen to them they try not to show emotion....Its the same thing with Weather deep down every Meteorologist wants a storm to form but we all try to cover it up and deny it because we don't want others to think we unprofessional
Quoting 305st0rm:
What are the chances we have the same profile pic....Go canes
No I do not, and I'm a proud Golden Panther, by the way.
Sorry....I was speaking at Drakster
I think you make your point with a good analogy, and I share your passion. I like a good baseball game with lots of scoring, but it's fun sometimes to watch a game like the Red Sox - Yankees marathon game last night that went 15 scoreless innings before A. Rod. hit a dramatic homer. This season may be like that. The anticipation of a storm adds to the drama when one finally roars through the Atlantic. I hope the Cape Verde long balls go toward the left field fence and not our way, though. By the way, though scoreless, we're still in about the fourth inning of this season!
More like a way of life lol
GFS 132 hours..
Best to have your supplies,medicine,Fuel..and other
Do you remember right before Gustav last year? People were filling up 50 gallon drums with gas. Im not talking about 1 drum but 10-20. I wonder if they are still using that gas today for their cars. People went nuts and over board.
If you draw a line between Hanna and Gustav in that picture it goes through my house... oops
CRS
I can't wait for the Monica and Hillary jokes to start coming around.
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