Hurricane Felicia hits Category 3; may affect Hawaii next week
As is often the case in an El Niño year, there's nothing to talk about today in the Atlantic, but the Eastern Pacific is very active. It has been 17 years since we went this long without a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic--the hurricane season of 1992 didn't start until August 16--but in the Eastern Pacific, we've already had six named storms this year. Hurricane Felicia is the latest addition, and Felicia has put on an impressive burst of intensification this morning by powering up to Category 3 status with 115 mph winds. Recent satellite loops show that Felicia has continued to intensify, with the cloud tops surrounding the eye cooling as they push higher into the troposphere.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Hurricane Felicia.
While Felicia is an impressive hurricane now, its days of glory will be short-lived. Felicia is currently passing over a region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 28.5°C, a full 2.5°C above the 26°C threshold needed to sustain a hurricane. These warm waters also extend to great depth, as seen on the Ocean Heat Content image (Figure 2). Felicia's west-northwest track will take the storm into a region of cooler waters with lower Oceanic Heat Content beginning tonight, which should induce a steady weakening trend beginning Thursday night. By Friday morning, SSTs should fall to 26°C, and decline to 25°C by Saturday. While wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range over the next five days, 5 - 15 knots, the cooler SSTs should be able to significantly weaken the hurricane. By Monday, when most of the computer models indicate that Felicia will be nearing the Hawaiian Islands, the storm will be at tropical depression strength with top winds of about 35 mph, according to the latest runs of the HWRF and GFDL models. Exactly how close Felicia will get to the Hawaiian Islands is a bit tricky to call right now, since the hurricane is interacting with nearby Tropical Storm Enrique. Whenever two storms get within 900 miles of each other, they tend to rotate around a common center in a dance called the Fujiwhara Effect. This sort of storm-storm interaction is a complicated affair not well-handled by the computer forecast models.
Figure 2. Total oceanic heat content (also called the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) along the forecast path of Hurricane Felicia. The initial time of the forecast is 06 UTC (1 am EDT) on August 5, 2009. Oceanic heat content of 90 kJ per square cm is often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Felicia is currently over waters with high heat content, but the heat content will steadily decrease over the next two days. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.
There are no areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic worth mentioning today, and no computer models forecast tropical storm development over the next seven days.
I'll have an update on Thursday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 — Blog Index
Perfectly normal, its mid-day out there Drak, it wanes in the afternoon and intensifies at night
In a hurricane that doesn't really matter. There main source is sea surface temperatures and not diurnal convective cycles.
OUTLOOK: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A PATTERN TRANSITION ON THENORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMAINS...WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
USA RELOCATING TO THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH DAY03-04...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH DAY 07. THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR THE
SOUTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERNATLANTIC...WHILE A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ESTABLISHES OVER
THE CENTRAL-EASTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 65-45W. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN COINCIDES WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE MJO. THIS IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WHERE WE HAVE SEEN A SURGE IN ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.CONDITIONS...AS PREDICTED BY THE EWP/CFS...ARE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE WEEKS. BUT BEST DYNAMICS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC MIGHT BE
SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE...WITH MODELS NOWHOLDING BACK UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. NEVERTHELESS...THE CHANGE IN FLOW PATTERN
MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO A HIGHER INCIDENCE IN TROPICAL
CYCLONES.
I feel like we've been saying that for a month now. Eventually something will get going.
1800 UTC
AMSU Intensity Time Series 1800 UTC
They also expand during the day giving the warming cloud tops effect, and compact at night and with colder cloud tops
Ack,coff,spit,..phew,dusty
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 AUG 2009 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 14:12:00 N Lon : 129:20:33 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 940.6mb/124.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.4 6.4 6.4
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.0mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km
Center Temp : +4.5C Cloud Region Temp : -68.2C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
That sounds more delayed in time then the last one I read and doesn't sound quite as enthusiastic for development of systems.
Wide View
As to "when" we're not really knowing
We keep waiting and waiting
Anticipating
Yet still nothing is out there a-blowin'!
Sometimes you just need to sit back and applaud these storms. It is awesome to see how far she's made it in such a short time. Now, for Hawaii's sake, let's hope her forecast for a demise is true.
WHXX01 KMIA 051858
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1858 UTC WED AUG 5 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA (EP082009) 20090805 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090805 1800 090806 0600 090806 1800 090807 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 129.3W 15.5N 131.0W 16.7N 132.7W 17.7N 134.4W
BAMD 14.2N 129.3W 15.4N 131.0W 16.4N 132.7W 17.2N 134.5W
BAMM 14.2N 129.3W 15.3N 130.9W 16.4N 132.6W 17.3N 134.3W
LBAR 14.2N 129.3W 15.6N 131.0W 16.9N 132.7W 18.1N 134.4W
SHIP 110KTS 120KTS 117KTS 105KTS
DSHP 110KTS 120KTS 117KTS 105KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090807 1800 090808 1800 090809 1800 090810 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.6N 136.3W 20.2N 141.3W 21.2N 146.9W 21.9N 153.2W
BAMD 17.7N 136.4W 18.6N 140.6W 19.3N 144.8W 20.1N 148.2W
BAMM 18.0N 136.2W 19.3N 140.6W 20.2N 145.2W 20.9N 149.5W
LBAR 18.8N 136.3W 19.5N 140.5W 19.3N 145.2W 19.2N 149.5W
SHIP 93KTS 69KTS 50KTS 29KTS
DSHP 93KTS 69KTS 50KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 129.3W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 127.8W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 126.1W
WNDCUR = 110KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 940MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 105NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 90NM
$$
NNNN
Convection is really waning on the west side of the storm, maybe cooler waters are starting to take a toll of it or wind shear.
Annular hurricanes have more of a disk shape. They are void of spiral bands.
Here this link should work...
Okinawa, JP (Airport)
Updated: 6 min 59 sec ago
84 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 81 °F
Wind: 28 mph from the ENE
Wind Gust: 41 mph
Pressure: 29.20 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 98 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
Okinawa wu-page with Sat Image of the Approaching Storm
08E
HURRICANE FELICIA 18:00UTC 05August2009
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates
Current Conditions (from TPC) :
Latitude : 14:30:06 N
Longitude : 129:15:19 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 952.6 hPa
Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 926.2 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 26.4 hPa
CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 3.1 m/s
Direction : 105.0 deg
Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
F F F N
Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable
-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.0 -6.0 - -2.0 -9.0 - -3.0 -12.0 - -4.0
N -1.0 - +1.0 -2.0 - +2.0 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.0 - +4.0
U +1.0 - +3.0 +2.0 - +6.0 +3.0 - +9.0 +4.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0
Is EPAC...and Cat V...WHAT?!?!?!
But cool waters loom
And that spells her doom
But Saturday she will be squat!
Al U.S. Naval,Air Force and Marine Stations on Okinawa bracing for Typhoon Condition 1 within 24 hours.
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
Viewing: 451 - 501
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 — Blog Index