Late-starting hurricane seasons
Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.
Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).
The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:
2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1
We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.
References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Shear is decreasing in the Caribbean:
The 40 knot circle is shrinking and the 20 shear mark looks a bit unraveled...could shear be lessening in the Caribbean?
Shear Map
Chicklit I posted you the loop earlier today to show you the shear was suppose to drop....YES it is lessening.
Hi Storm. Nice job on the show. Was my first time listening to Bob. Didn't know about it til now. BTW. Thanks ;)
Wind shear looks much more favorable across the basin than it did a couple weeks ago.
done worryin' for the day.
up at 5 tomorrow and on the road.
Loop
Link
what the hell is all that?
Looks like the previous amplified wave helped shift the ITCZ above 10N- interesting...
Storm Just fine was just listening to the news. I know this is off the subject but but Justice is served. This young boy was in my hubby fishing club and he was shot and killed last year 3 boys had been watching him for a few weeks and they seen where he cashed his check and ate on fridays, so they shot him and stole his cash from him cashing his pay check. Tonight on the news they said the boys that shot him was 14,17,17 know 15,18,18 and they wanted tried as youthful offenders and the judge denied there request they will be tried as adults. We've had shirts printed up on Corey and there's gonna be a Big Bass Tournament next May in his name and every year after, even Bass Pro is backing it we have a lot of big names backing it.
I am sorry for getting off the subject hope no one gets mad.
Sheri
I see where someone posted the shear is lessening in the Caribbean.
Sheri
/sheri
Sheri send me an email about this charity....i will post it on my site
its a strange July
No Taz, it became Lana not Enrique
"JOLINA" has acclerated and intensifed into a tropical storm while over the Philippine Sea.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
=========================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Jolina located at 16.2°N, 128.8°E or 490 kms northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 km/h (35 knots) with gustiness up to 80 km/h (45 knots).
Additional Information
======================
Tropical Storm "Jolina" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional to frequent rains over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao particularly over the western sections which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Yes, BurnedAfterPosting is right. As it crossed the 140W line, it strengthened into a tropical storm and was named Lana (after Kika last year), although it was first designated TD 6-E.
Link
How long before your blog is ready?
1) hate that i missed StormW on the show
2) Tropical Storm Lana may possibly get closer to Hawaii than one might think. Depends on how strong she gets - but either way will produce some good waves for the surfers.
3) Atlantic basin - eerily quiet! But it feels like this may be changing soon. I am going to stick with what I said in my last post.
We may see the beginnings of a storm/depression by Aug. 2nd or maybe even a named storm. More likely - the beginnings of one.
First couple of named storms will be fish.
September will be the month and will rival 2004.
Concluding thoughts: we are not having a slow season. Our thoughts have been jaded by the anomalies of the past 5 hurricane seasons. Just wait until Aug. 20-early Oct. We will see some storms - and some landfalls in Sept.
As always, just my opinion!!!
(This is my last post for tonight, then i'm off to shower, brush my teeth and into bed. Goodnite everyone.)
1. Yeah I missed it too, but I assume there will be a link. I'd like to see it.
2. They'll love the surf if so.
3. Every day is a bit closer to prime time.
4.Beginnings of a named storm by Aug 2nd? Where and how?
5. With the ridge, how could the storm be a fish?
Individuals do not influence the weather.
If you look at Storm Ws blog - he hints that some of the tropical waves off the African coast may have a shot. The SAL is moistening up a bit. The ridge will move any waves/storms westward, however, they will recurve before hitting the east coast. The models have been trending towards recurvature lately. Hence fish! However, this will probably not be the case in September.
TY!
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