Late-starting hurricane seasons
Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.
Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).
The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:
2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1
We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.
References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.
Jeff Masters
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Or guns.
I showed several seasons last night that had only 1 named storm going into mid-August and were above average. 1955, 1984, 1999
I mean really we all know the way this blog works that if we had 1 named storm early and then nothing formed until August, people would call the season a bust anyway, so why bother debating with them lol
If it goes quiet for a month or two they get antsy.
UGH! That's gotta make your stomach turn after some of the horrible fires you guys have had out there. I hate seeing those because out those thing are CRAZY. Here in Florida we just get a ton of small ones instead of a couple of huge ones. Be safe!
by the way don't anyone start throwing away hurricane supplies just yet
THE LATEST MJO PROGNOSIS
LEADS TO THE FOLLOWING DIAGNOSIS
STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WILL DRIVE THIS ENTIRE BLOG INTO PSYCHOSIS
same for hurricanes. to me, hurricane season doesn't even really start until august. if we get to august 31 and we still haven't had a named storm, then i'll think it's a slow season.
Well said, but people will do it regardless, so I am just going to try and ignore them lol
below average season is one thing, a bust is something completely different.
Hey Ike, How are ya? Listen I was just wondering on the image you put up, what is the squiggly yellow line? I am just trying to understand.
Sheri
6 storms but say 4 of them hit land and 3 of those are majors, is still a pretty bad season I would say
Numbers mean nothing, too many look at the numbers and assume all those storms will not have impacts.
"Shown below are MJO forecast products using information from the ensemble GFS.".....
Ensemble GFS showing where the MJO is headed through Aug. 10th........
It's not a bust, you just set your expectations too high. A season can't bust out of the gates every year like 2005 or 2008.
Thanks for the answer Ike. Have a good day.
You too. I've had almost a foot...that's right, a foot of rain this month.
The tropics are in no condition,
to support hardly anyones prediction
we'll be feasting for sho'
on plenty of crow
that was cooked up in ol' Patraps Kitchen!
:)
Downward MJO can be overcome by stronger tropical waves.
One thing I have always heard about the MJO is that an upward motion can certainly help development; even spark it. A downward motion doesnt guarantee their wont be a named storm.
There is no dust off Africa for a couple hundred miles, The next few waves may have a shot
agree
SAL map
Joe B. Always refers to it as "The hammer and sycle (sp?)of subsidence. Or the "Sword of Damocles.... However ya spell it...
In all respects whom shall we trust?
Would my eyes be a lying
That swirl is she trying?
and what about all of that dust?
Are the sea turtles nesting?
On Our shores be investing their trust that our shores be there fort?
It was 79 I remember the time:
High school that year had ended to adulthood I was assending. I thought everything was just fine.
But September came and pressure went low and my old uncle said we all got to go! So to Foley we ran, cause that was the plan, we didnt know then what we know!
I remember it well, the terror, the hell.
The pine trees they snapped, the roof would it last? For another I'll not be a staying!
When in 04 Ivan came to our shores. By then I had moved 20 miles inland. But with 79 in my mind, our windows were boarded our jeep it was loaded and to Birmingham we ran with our clan.
When we had returned, I thank God I had learned. $56,000 damage to a brick house is amazing. When the twister hit, the roof it did split and we all stood there mouths were agaping.
Next time I will listen when NWS is insisting that they think it is time I will go!
Long time lurker...
First time poster
Kelly
You're next Lucy R.
It could...assuming the models are correct.
I'll 2nd that. I'm rooting for it.
yea, how a bout just four storms, a Charley, a Francis, a Jeanne, and an Ivan. That would be just lovely ... NOT !!!!
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