Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting reedzone:
The GFS keeps going back from strong highs to strong east coast troughs.. It doesn't really know what the pattern will be in 2 weeks.

I'm hoping for a favourable pattern this year. Something like 2006, as it easier to track fish storms, it takes away the argument of "where it will hit"

".. -- EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page --

Model Cycle: 2009073012

North America: Model Tracks for Mid-Latitude Cyclones




.."Nuthing

Here are some really cool high resolution Animations of hurricanes that you guys will enjoy.

Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Andrew

Hurricane Gustav

Hurricane Hugo

Hurricane Season 2008

Enjoy

Also I was asked the question and the answer is iincluded in the August outlook. A downward phase in the MJO is expected for alteast the next week, not 2 weeks as all the model forecast are not in agreement in the latter. But you could say a downward motion is expected for the next 1-2 weeks. But one should not develop the misconception that TCs cannot form within the downphase of the MJO, they can and they did. For example the MJO axis is near Indonesia-W PAC but yet TD6 developed. In simple terms, it lowers not eliminate the chances TC genesis.

1949 started slowly; turned into a substancial season. 13 total storms. First storm developed on Aug 21st. 1961 had it's first storm on July 20th the next storm didn't form until Sept 2nd. 11 storms that year. That was the year of Carla. 1969 started slowly; first storm on Jul 25th. Season really got rolling on Aug 10th. Camille formed that year. 18 total storms. There was also a moderate El Nino present. At the end of Nov that year, H Martha affected Panama as a tropical storm. Very unusual to have land areas below 10 N affected. Other examples of slow starting significant seasons. Also important to note that all of those years were contained within the previous conveyor belt active period prior to the current one which started in 1995. The active period in the Atlantic tends to last about 40 years, in contrast to the inactive period (Most Recent, 1970-1994) which tends to last about 20 years. We are only 14 years into this new active phase; we could be in it for approx 24 more years. Slow periods can occur during the active period & Vice Versa.

Jeff, try these:http://www.research.gov/rgov/anonymous.portal?_nfpb=true&_windowLabel=news_1_1&news_1_1_action Override=%2Fgov%2Fresearch%2Fcore%2Fcms%2Fnews%2Fbegin&news_1_1nodePath=%2FBEA+Repository%2Fnews%2Fi tems%2F1243954934872&_pageLabel=page_latest_news





http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/02/cooler-heads-at-noaa-coming-around-to-natural-variability/
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6609

Question---------

Are there signs of maybe a "Modoki El Nino"?

Quoting cyclonekid:
Question---------

Are there signs of maybe a "Modoki El Nino"?

Nope.

Jeff as well as:To me this pretty much explains why we arent seeing many storms this season so far IMO.
http://www.sott.net/articles/show/189206-NOAA-S-and-GISS-s-Hot-Streaks-Continue-Despite-Satellite-S ensed-Cooling


http://www.sott.net/image/image/s1/24191/full/sst_anom.gif

Thanks for that explanation of the MJO related to cyclogenesis, 456.
Perhaps with the absence of land-falling hurricanes to worry about, we should focus on plagues and pestilence.
Was astounded by the stats contained in this graphic. The world link can be accessed from here as well.Link
It appears quite a few children in summer camps are coming down with the H1N1 virus.
Go ahead, flag me for non-weather content...just wanted to make folks aware. I hadn't been following the flu's progress and was surprised.
Also, watched your vid Oz. "Sheer" as in "sheer terror" is spelled with two e's. "Shear" as in "wind shear" is spelled as indicated.

Quoting Drakoen:


Nope.

Do you have a SST map (global) that i could see, please?

Quoting CycloneOz:
This special production video from XtremeHurricanes.com and Brian Osburn is a public service message that drives home the point that when a mandatory evacuation order is given, those affected should not wait, but leave immediately. Strong Category 4 and 5 hurricanes will do incredibly serious damage not just along the coast, but well inland. Don't be fooled into thinking you can "ride it out." That very well could be your worst, and last important decision you ever make.

Not a bad video Brian. A little long for a PS message. Think you should place special emphasis on “those affected” (by the evac order). I’m just afraid it scares people into evacuating who’d be better off staying and “riding it out”, which is exactly what the majority of folks here on the E coast of Fla should do is, ride it out. If you’re not in a evac zone or a structure that isn’t very strong (mobile home, etc) then you should stay put. If you do evacuate you should be looking to go as close to your home as possible, like a friend or family member’s home. Evacuating out of the region is a bad idea and puts you at greater risk. Besides, as soon as the storm is over you’re gonna want to see your place, and the further away you go, the harder it is to get back there.

ALWAYS follow your Local Emg Mgrs orders in a Hurricane event.

They,..and they alone with your Local Authorities always have the Best info on Local Action.

Quoting cyclonekid:
Question---------

Are there signs of maybe a "Modoki El Nino"?

Well one map earlier showed a "Modoki" type of El Nino forming around September. Most maps show a weak El Nino but I don't think it will reduce Hurricane activity as much as 2006. Maybe a 2002 type season. It is not out of the question that this El Nino switches to a Modoki, but should mainly stay a weak El Nino. In fact it might become neutral this fall.

NOAA has as expected announced that June 2009 for the globe was the second warmest June in 130 years, falling just short of 2005. NASA GISS which starts with NCDC GHCN and then adds their own special touches had this June the second warmest on record just behind 1998.

In SHARP contrast, NASA UAH MSU satellite assessment had June virtually normal (+0.001C or 15th coldest in 31 years) and RSS (+0.075C or 14th coldest in 31 years).

Satellite are widely believed to be the most reliable source of reliable trend information after you calibrate the differences as one bird gets phased out and a new one goes online. UAH and RSS have gotten very good at this in a very cooperative way in recent years. Satellites provide full coverage of the globe including the oceans which cover 70% of the earth's surface.

When you do a difference in the satellite trends of both UAH and RSS with NOAA, you see an increasing warm bias in the NOAA data which explains why months with major cold in the news get ranked so high by NOAA and not by the satellite sources. The difference started small in 1979 but is now approaching 0.5C (almost 1F)!


Also they in the last year made changes to the ocean temperature data base removing the satellite data that they claimed was giving a cold bias to the data. The oceans now are shown to be warm just about everywhere and was the warmest of the record. See NOAA's map below and larger here. Note most of the world's ocean were warmer than normal (for the oceans it was the warmest year).

IN short: Satelite is more reliable than land based stations suspect to dropout and faulty temps. Noaa should use satelite more.

Question

Once the SAL decreases - how quickly does the SST's increase?- Naturally, I mean in the same area as the SAL ; )

Thanking you in advance

Quoting reedzone:


Well one map earlier showed a "Modoki" type of El Nino forming around September. Most maps show a weak El Nino but I don't think it will reduce Hurricane activity as much as 2006. Maybe a 2002 type season. It is not out of the question that this El Nino switches to a Modoki, but should mainly stay a weak El Nino. In fact it might become neutral this fall.

Cool...Thanks!

So possible devestating hurricane to strike the US again, huh?

Quoting Patrap:
ALWAYS follow your Local Emg Mgrs orders in a Hurricane event.

They,..and they alone with your Local Authorities always have the Best info on Local Action.

I agree 100%. Just trying to make people aware of the opposite of the obvious problem of people not leaving that should, is people leaving that shouldn't. Makes it harder on the folks who should. Also to avoid going too far away - again, it makes it more difficult and dangerous on everyone on the road.

Surface stations VS Satelite

You be the judge.

http://static.cbslocal.com/station/wbz/wbz/2009/may/SurfaceStations.pdf

Quoting cyclonekid:

Cool...Thanks!

So possible devestating hurricane to strike the US again, huh?

Well it's always possible.. I think I have been looking for a "Modoki" El Nino and right now signs of that are slim.. So I'm revising my predictions to 12/6/4..
14 down to 12 named systems
7 down to 6 hurricanes
and the same amount on them making major status.

Of course time will tell but, things can change and mother nature can prove all of us wrong. It will be an interesting season indeed. In fact my prediction on the tracks seem to be right based on the current pattern. If shear was low and 97L was a hurricane, that would have been a "classic" east coast Hurricane. Shear was deff our friend. These are the types of tracks i'm looking for come late August into September. That and a few out to sea storms, less GOM storms this year.

Question

Is there a BLOB in the southern Caribbean?

Anything,that enters or Forms in the GOM has 2 Options always..

One is to dissapate,..the other is a Landfall somewhere.

No one can predict tropical Genesis with 100% accuracy,and No one can offer even a inkling of a area not seeing a Hurricane,period.

To think one can is just feeding a ego.

Has the nhc named the hurricane in the pacific yet? just wundering!

Quoting stormsurge39:
Has the nhc named the hurricane in the pacific yet? just wundering!

What hurricane?

Its a Tropical Depression

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


What hurricane?

Its a Tropical Depression

Soon-to-be Tropical Storm Lana...we think

Time life of 97L (after dry air and if the shear was 10-20 knots) A fun experiment.

97L becomes a TD Monday afternoon
TS Monday night or Tuesday morning before it makes landfall in DR
Landfall at 50-60 mph
Wave ahead of 97L gets absorbed as 97L enters out of DR as a weak TS (40 mph.)
Strengthens to a strong TS again Wednesday as it heads towards the Carolinas.
Becomes a Hurricane Thursday and quickly strengthens to near or at category 2 strength before becoming Extratropical in nature. Hits Long Island, NY with 80-95 mph. winds.
then dies out Friday

*I could be wrong on the timing lol*
This forecast is based if shear was lower then 25 knots. thru out the whole storms track.

I was being sarcastic!! serious though, have you looked at the latest satt.It has to be at least a tropical storm!!!

Question

Is there a BLOB in the southern Caribbean?

Quoting Weather456:


I'm hoping for a favourable pattern this year. Something like 2006, as it easier to track fish storms, it takes away the argument of "where it will hit"

456,I noticed in the 12z GFS run that the high pressure relaxes and retreats NE.Is that a sign of a negative NAO?

Dadeland Mobile Home Park after passage of Hurricane Andrew. Despite the record-setting devastation in South Florida, only 15 people died during the hurricane, just 6 while still inside their homes. Most deaths in Florida occurred in the hours and days following the hurricane's passage, proving the greatest danger from a hurricane often lies after, not during the storm. Obviously, mobile homes are definitely not a safe haven during high wind events.

Quoting stormsurge39:
I was being sarcastic!! serious though, have you looked at the latest satt.It has to be at least a tropical storm!!!

There wont be another update until 5pm EDT, then it will be a TS

It is not impacting land nor is it in the Atlatnic so there is no need to cut in with special advisory to upgrade it

That makes sense. It looks like its rapidly intensifing.

Good video Oz,
Reminds me alot of some of my family and friends' stories who went thru Andrew and didn't realize both how bad it was going to be and how poorly their homes were constructed. Some were newer too. They ended up in bathtubs huddling together or in hallways with mattresses on top of them. DOH! Poor construction greatly contributed to Andrew's rampage. We were in S. Ft. Myers so it was nasty (TS winds/hurricane gusts) but nothing like Coral Gables/Kendall/Cutler Ridge which is where everyone I knew was.

Quoting btwntx08:

u can see for urself
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

No...wrong BLOB. I was talking about the one east of Nicaragua.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 25N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A BROAD
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THIS WAVE ALSO EXHIBITS A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DRY AIR
AND SAHARAN DUST IS NE OF THE WAVE...AND ALSO W OF THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 60W-64W...AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 66W-69W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
WAVE LIES IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SRN
MEXICO BECOMING MORE BROAD IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC
REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE OVER THE E PACIFIC.

Besides PELE will just blow it out to sea, should it become a threat.
/sarc off

Quoting btwntx08:
sorry how bout this one
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg

Ya that one

AOI

AOI


Pick a Blob... any Blob :)