Late-starting hurricane seasons

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:01 PM GMT del 29 Luglio 2009

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Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.


Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1

We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.

References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:
1008 mb's....looks like the 12Z GFS has latched on to...Ana?....ghost storm?


GFS? Lol. It will drop it next run you watch. It really has an issue with storms this year compared to last
Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553


WIPEOUT! How'd you like to ride that wave?
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LOL... if GFS keeps past 40W... then the ATL curse might be broken.
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Ike... he has picked different numbers the whole time.. once he picked 0.0.0... but I am so over it. I dont even care...


Really, I did?

I never changed my numbers.




Member Since: Marzo 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Does the blob below PR have any potential?
Member Since: Maggio 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
Quoting AussieStorm:


That's my feelings also. 0 major canes with such high temps in the GOM....lol. the TCHP would be off the scale.


High temps in GOM would allow rapid intensification, which usually produces Major hurricanes. Look at Hurricane Katrina, Rita and others that move other the loop current in the GOM. The loop current is a huge patch of warmer waters the forms a spinning motion, i.e. the loop current. There is also smaller patches or eddys where warm waters are located in the GOM.

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953. IKE
1008 mb's....looks like the 12Z GFS has latched on to...Ana?....ghost storm?

Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Ike... he has picked different numbers the whole time.. once he picked 0.0.0... but I am so over it. I dont even care...


that too, but he has stuck with his ,1,0 for awhile now, just never gives a reason

I highly doubt El Nino will be strong enough to only have 4 named storms, so I dont consider El Nino a reason for only 4 storms

Now Ikes' prediction of 10 and using El Nino makes much more sense.
951. CybrTeddy
04:42 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting IKE:


He's picked 4-1-0 all year.

I picked 10-4-2. I based it on El Nino.

Not sure what his basis is...seems like he gave a reason. If not, he should give one...or 2...or whatever.


Ike you gave a pretty good reason and opinion on this season and why you said 10, now Ben didn't. He's gone from 2-9 storms this year. Just decided to stay at 4 for a few weeks. Besides, does it really matter how many storms we get if we get (god hope not) a Category 5 US landfall that causes Billions of dollars in damages.
Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
950. Drakoen
04:42 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
I'm skeptical of the GFS forecast considering there are two lows involved. There is probably some convective feedback in that:
Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
949. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
04:42 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009


ENTER CPAC
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55671
948. TampaSpin
04:42 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting IKE:
Vorticity increased in the eastern Caribbean...



Dont know if anything will get going in the dead zone....but shear is very low in that area also
Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
947. IKE
04:41 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


What's up Ike... Not being a troll 12 in August, 21 in September and 8 in October LOL


LOL!
Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
946. SomeRandomTexan
04:41 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Ike... he has picked different numbers the whole time.. once he picked 0.0.0... but I am so over it. I dont even care...
Member Since: Agosto 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
945. IKE
04:40 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting mikatnight:


One is the lonliest number...


fire it up...cued up for your listening pleasure...
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944. AussieStorm
04:40 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Preciously.

What is the TCHP anyways?
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943. BurnedAfterPosting
04:39 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting IKE:


He's picked 4-1-0 all year.

I picked 10-4-2. I based it on El Nino.

Not sure what his basis is...seems like he gave a reason. If not, he should give one...or 2...or whatever.


He never gave a reason and never has given a reason even though people have asked for one, that is why they call him a troll.
942. Drakoen
04:39 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Tropics remain quiet
Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
941. PanhandleChuck
04:39 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting IKE:
Someone is not a troll because they pick a certain number of systems...that's how I feel...everyone has a right to a #.


What's up Ike... Not being a troll 12 in August, 21 in September and 8 in October LOL
Member Since: Maggio 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
940. Cavin Rawlins
04:39 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
12Z GFS now developing a tropical cyclone from the broad area of low pressure currently between 30W and the African coast within the next week. We'll see if it keeps it.

Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
939. BurnedAfterPosting
04:38 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
GFS continues to hang on to a system going out a week now, its hanging on to this one longer than previous ones
938. IKE
04:38 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Actually Ike, when someone just randomly spurts out numbers without placing fact into it or historical data that they know will cause an argument or drama, seems pretty trollish to me. Now, Im not refering to anyone in particular but its just a fact. Its always worked that way on here, either with Downcasting or wishcasting.


He's picked 4-1-0 all year.

I picked 10-4-2. I based it on El Nino.

Not sure what his basis is...seems like he gave a reason. If not, he should give one...or 2...or whatever.
Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
937. AussieStorm
04:38 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting Drakoen:
Nice TD:

Member Since: Settembre 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
936. mikatnight
04:37 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting IKE:
Someone is not a troll because they pick a certain number of systems...that's how I feel...everyone has a right to a #.


One is the lonliest number...
Member Since: Ottobre 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
935. IKE
04:37 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Vorticity increased in the eastern Caribbean...

Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
933. CybrTeddy
04:36 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting IKE:
Someone is not a troll because they pick a certain number of systems...that's how I feel...everyone has a right to a #.


Actually Ike, when someone just randomly spurts out numbers without placing fact into it or historical data that they know will cause an argument or drama, seems pretty trollish to me. Now, Im not refering to anyone in particular but its just a fact. Its always worked that way on here, either with Downcasting or wishcasting.
Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
932. Drakoen
04:36 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Nice TD:
Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
931. IKE
04:32 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Someone is not a troll because they pick a certain number of systems...that's how I feel...everyone has a right to a #.
Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
930. mikatnight
04:31 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


To me it seems that with the way everything is just ready to boil, once we get the MJO in the Atlantic Basin, we will see 4 named storms in a short period of time. As futuremet said, upward motion will be here at the end of next week.


Even if August is slow, there's been plenty of seasons with a bunch of Sept & Oct storms and little or nothing in the earlier months.
Member Since: Ottobre 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
929. AussieStorm
04:31 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Aussie, disregard those predictions ASAP my friend. He obviously has got no sense of crediable foundation whatsoever to back up those numerical predictions with. On the other hand, KMan is anticipating that we'll see either 2 or 3 major canes this year. So we'll see what evolves.


That's my feelings also. 0 major canes with such high temps in the GOM....lol. the TCHP would be off the scale.
Member Since: Settembre 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
928. Cavin Rawlins
04:30 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Tropical depression 06E will likely become tropical depression 01C later today. This is typical of El Nino years. Most recently, 2006 had the impressive long-lived Ioke, the longest lasting Central Pacific Storm. In 2004, which omost of know was not a classic El Nino, much of the warm watesr were displaced in the central Pacific, that season ended up with 7 tropical depressions

Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
927. CybrTeddy
04:29 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting AussieStorm:

I have a feeling there might be a strong/major hurricane. Especially with the SST's in the GOM.


Aussie don't quote Ben, he's a troll.
As I said, 1997 had a way more powerful El Nino and they had 8 named. 2006 had a stronger El Nino and it had 10 named. 2009 has an El Nino at about to slightly stronger than in 2004. 11-13 named is more likely. No way we're getting less than 8.
Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
926. LPStormspotter
04:29 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting GBguy88:


Wow, that'll be a hellish two weeks if that comes into fruition.


It will be nuts here
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925. LPStormspotter
04:28 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting IKE:


IKE...



WOW. its so Beautiful...
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924. Chicklit
04:27 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009


I am not saying another word since I have no idea what I'm talking about.
CapeVerde
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923. BurnedAfterPosting
04:27 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting mikatnight:


Yeah, think that's shootin' a little low. Have to go back to '86 for just 6.


To me it seems that with the way everything is just ready to boil, once we get the MJO in the Atlantic Basin, we will see 4 named storms in a short period of time. As futuremet said, upward motion will be here at the end of next week.
922. Thundercloud01221991
04:27 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting GBguy88:


Wow, that'll be a hellish two weeks if that comes into fruition.


Yes it would be but I do not think most of them will hit land only like 1 or 2 of them the rest would curve in the CATL
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921. KYhomeboy
04:26 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting GBguy88:


Wow, that'll be a hellish two weeks if that comes into fruition.


LOL!!
920. catastropheadjuster
04:26 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
The SAL looks like it trying to lift out. At least it looks different from the last few days. At least to my untrained eyes. If the SAL lifts out pretty good does that mean it would be better for the waves to get there act together. Don't get me wrong I am not wishing for a storm of any kind. I am just trying to learn.

Sheri
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3683
918. GBguy88
04:26 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Here is my prediction:

I am not a wishcaster don't think I am I am just predicting. I do not want people screaming at me because of this

13 Named Storms (8 in a 2 week period early september)

8 Hurricanes (5 in that 2 week period)

4 Major Hurricanes (all 4 in that 2 week period)


Wow, that'll be a hellish two weeks if that comes into fruition.
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 488
917. BenBIogger
04:25 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
COAPS

8 Named Storms
4 Hurricane
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916. mikatnight
04:25 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Yea someone who says a 4 named storm, 1 hurricane prediciton is going strong just becuase there is no named storms before August is seriously dillusional at this point


Yeah, think that's shootin' a little low. Have to go back to '86 for just 6.
Member Since: Ottobre 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
915. Thundercloud01221991
04:23 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Here is my prediction:

I am not a wishcaster don't think I am I am just predicting. I do not want people screaming at me because of this

13 Named Storms (8 in a 2 week period early september)

8 Hurricanes (5 in that 2 week period)

4 Major Hurricanes (all 4 in that 2 week period)
Member Since: Agosto 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
913. BurnedAfterPosting
04:22 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting AussieStorm:

I have a feeling there might be a strong/major hurricane.


Yea someone who says a 4 named storm, 1 hurricane prediciton is going strong just becuase there is no named storms before August is seriously dillusional at this point
912. AussieStorm
04:21 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting BenBIogger:
My prediction are still going strong

4* named storms
1* hurricane
0* major hurricane

I have a feeling there might be a strong/major hurricane. Especially with the SST's in the GOM.
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911. mikatnight
04:20 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Member Since: Ottobre 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
910. AussieStorm
04:20 PM GMT del 30 Luglio 2009
Quoting GBguy88:


Ah, well good then...sorry, I guess I could have checked back a couple of pages and avoided stating the obvious.

No worries mate.
Member Since: Settembre 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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