Late-starting hurricane seasons
Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.
Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).
The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:
2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1
We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.
References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.
Jeff Masters
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It has been noted already. Wont come close to Hawaii. will be a fish-storm
No monomania.
mon⋅o⋅ma⋅ni⋅a /ˌmɒnəˈmeɪniə, -ˈmeɪnyə/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [mon-uh-mey-nee-uh, -meyn-yuh] Show IPA
Use monomania in a Sentence
–noun 1. (no longer in technical use) a psychosis characterized by thoughts confined to one idea or group of ideas.
2. an inordinate or obsessive zeal for or interest in a single thing, idea, subject, or the like.
Origin:
1815–25; < NL; see mono-, -mania
Related forms:
mon⋅o⋅ma⋅ni⋅ac /ˌmɒnəˈmeɪniˌæk/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [mon-uh-mey-nee-ak] Show IPA , noun
mon⋅o⋅ma⋅ni⋅a⋅cal /ˌmɒnəməˈnaɪəkəl/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [mon-uh-muh-nahy-uh-kuhl] Show IPA , adjective
Dictionary.com Unabridged
Based on the Random House Dictionary, © Random House, Inc. 2009.
LOL
Ah, well good then...sorry, I guess I could have checked back a couple of pages and avoided stating the obvious.
nah its ok, it happens
4* named storms
1* hurricane
0* major hurricane
No worries mate.
I have a feeling there might be a strong/major hurricane. Especially with the SST's in the GOM.
Yea someone who says a 4 named storm, 1 hurricane prediciton is going strong just becuase there is no named storms before August is seriously dillusional at this point
I am not a wishcaster don't think I am I am just predicting. I do not want people screaming at me because of this
13 Named Storms (8 in a 2 week period early september)
8 Hurricanes (5 in that 2 week period)
4 Major Hurricanes (all 4 in that 2 week period)
Yeah, think that's shootin' a little low. Have to go back to '86 for just 6.
8 Named Storms
4 Hurricane
Wow, that'll be a hellish two weeks if that comes into fruition.
Sheri
LOL!!
Yes it would be but I do not think most of them will hit land only like 1 or 2 of them the rest would curve in the CATL
To me it seems that with the way everything is just ready to boil, once we get the MJO in the Atlantic Basin, we will see 4 named storms in a short period of time. As futuremet said, upward motion will be here at the end of next week.
I am not saying another word since I have no idea what I'm talking about.
CapeVerde
WOW. its so Beautiful...
It will be nuts here
Aussie don't quote Ben, he's a troll.
As I said, 1997 had a way more powerful El Nino and they had 8 named. 2006 had a stronger El Nino and it had 10 named. 2009 has an El Nino at about to slightly stronger than in 2004. 11-13 named is more likely. No way we're getting less than 8.
That's my feelings also. 0 major canes with such high temps in the GOM....lol. the TCHP would be off the scale.
Even if August is slow, there's been plenty of seasons with a bunch of Sept & Oct storms and little or nothing in the earlier months.
Actually Ike, when someone just randomly spurts out numbers without placing fact into it or historical data that they know will cause an argument or drama, seems pretty trollish to me. Now, Im not refering to anyone in particular but its just a fact. Its always worked that way on here, either with Downcasting or wishcasting.
One is the lonliest number...
He's picked 4-1-0 all year.
I picked 10-4-2. I based it on El Nino.
Not sure what his basis is...seems like he gave a reason. If not, he should give one...or 2...or whatever.
What's up Ike... Not being a troll 12 in August, 21 in September and 8 in October LOL
He never gave a reason and never has given a reason even though people have asked for one, that is why they call him a troll.
What is the TCHP anyways?
fire it up...cued up for your listening pleasure...
LOL!
Dont know if anything will get going in the dead zone....but shear is very low in that area also
ENTER CPAC
Ike you gave a pretty good reason and opinion on this season and why you said 10, now Ben didn't. He's gone from 2-9 storms this year. Just decided to stay at 4 for a few weeks. Besides, does it really matter how many storms we get if we get (god hope not) a Category 5 US landfall that causes Billions of dollars in damages.
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