Late-starting hurricane seasons
Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.
Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).
The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:
2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1
We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.
References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It should be given the later. As technically it met the requirements to be a Tropical Storm after crossing the Date line.
Yeah, "Alicia" (retired), "Barry", "Chantal", and "Dean".
Morning!
good car song....
For disaster relief there is a cool new water purification tech. called "lifesaver" that lets you purify over 4000 leters of water rather than carrying it around with you. The new filtration works down to 15 nm. and even removes viruses.
After Katrina and the Tsunami, the inventor focused on it and got it to work.
http://www.lifesaversystems.com/press.html
Thank you!
The most impressive looking animal I've seen in the GOM. An absolute beast.
Look at all of the lives it uprooted and ruined and lost. Why anyone comes on here wanting that is ?
Highly unlikely.
You know the answer to that. Despite the horror of its impact, it is still a thing of beauty. The same reason people like to watch expolsions or a train wreck. It's undeniably...interesting.
True...but, I wouldn't wish one on anyone.....
It does look good, something track thank God, lol
I'd have to give that one a 50+.
Where in Gulfport did you live? My mom lived in West Gulfport off of Highway 90 on Camp Ave. lost everything!
P.S. New blog entry:
An Area of Interest in the Tropics!
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.
AOI
AOI
Really I live off Old Hwy 49 and Hwy 53...where do they live?
The record heat is also being felt in Canada, where on July 28; Victoria, British Columbia reached a record high of 91F beating the old record of 84F set in 1958. Even higher temperature records were set in Port Alberni, which reached 102 degrees, which is shy of the record high temperature of 107 set back in 1926. The highest temperature recorded across Canada during the past day or two was 104 in Lillooet.
Pardon my French, but these temperatures bring new definition to the phrase %u201CHell on Earth%u201D. The cause of this hot weather is not surprisingly, a stagnant deep layer ridge across Western North America that is 1) blocking the normal west to east flow, suppressing cool onshore flow and 2) increasing warm southerly flow into the region. The latest GFS model run show this ridge of high pressure not leaving anytime soon, the earliest being Saturday, so continued high temperatures are in the forecast for the remainder of the week.
Unofficial Temperatures Yesterday
Port Alberni 108
Langford/Victoria (My Home Station) 104.4
The Victoria Weather Stations are on the Waterfront... I wish I was.
AFRICAN WAVE ANIMATION
Don't remind me of that one either. I live on Mobile Bay now. Show one that hit Idaho or something. I don't live there....lol
LOL...sorry.
Just trying to convince anyone(not you), that might want one of these...their no fun. Only fun to track, not experience.
And yet the temperatures for upstate NY this year have been unseasonably cool.
I noticed that to Ike. What are the conditions ahead of this wave?
If it went WNW is it's best chance. Going west probably shears it.....
Nice of you to do that.
Sat thru all but Opal nolehead...my dad panicked...sat thru Ivan and Dennis here in Destin. that was certainly interesting
Now looking at the models, I don’t see much activity in the near future. Models that go out beyond a week don’t show much either. Extended models are virtually clear too. The most far reaching model available to me goes out to August 14th, but forecasts that far out aren’t very dependable. Funny thing though. Out of the seasons that had an August start over the past 50 years, the first named storm on average developed, you guessed it, August 14th!
So we’re already off to a late start, and El Nino (like in 1992) should produce lower numbers. But does this mean that “The Big One” will be out there? If history proves itself, then there would be almost a 60% chance of that happening!
Written by Baker
July 29th, 2009 at 10:59 am
KATC Storm Team 3 Weather
God bless you Gambler for your dedication. You bring up a point though about evacuation. It seems to be hard to get through people's heads that one should not evacuate from the wind (unless the dwelling is deemed compromisable), but the storm surge or a flood zone. Even then, one shouldn't evacuate the region, but just the area. Generally 5-10 miles (at least on the E. coast of Fla) is plenty. If more people understood this it would make it alot easier on those who have to leave (like everyone in the Keys, or people around Lake O). :)
yep, i would say anyone that lives oh..between biloxi and destin have had there FULL share of these things...yes they are wonderful to look at on the satellite, and track... but going through a major storm....well it puts it all into perspective when after you see what just hit you....wouldn't want to wish this on anyone and anyone who would needs to be checked into a mental clinic....
Quikscat this morning continues to show an elongated surface low oriented NE to SW with the feature near 11N 35W.
850 mb vorticity is also much improved from yesterday and convection, though relatively weak, has hung on. SAL is presently holding this wave in check but I still think it may a have chance to develop once it nears 50W.
Something to watch for over the next 48 hrs.
No Crash, Thunder or Boom!
Does this mean POOF?
Season Over?
1914 one storm?
I thought Hurricanes were giant heat engines to move energy from the lower latitudes towards the poles?
Didn’t Al Gore say something about more storms and more intense storms?
If its poof won’t the oceans over heat near the lower latitudes (semi global warming) and over cool the poles (semi global cooling).
My job is in the flood adjusting field after a sotrm or flooding event.my job is to help people put their lives back together after this type thing. I myself have went through many storms at my own home. But when I see what happens at my place(After Katrina in Mobile) and had to go to Mississippi and LA I knew I was blessed with the small amount of damage I had. For the most part the people I dealt with got out and came back to see what was left but I did have the few that did not leave and you can guess what the results of that was. So please if you are asked to leave they are only asking you to do what is safe for you. You can rebuild a home and replace some things in the home but you can not replace a life.
Morning; a small pocket of 20 knots of sheer just to the south of it, but, 5-10 knots immediately to it's West.
Are you not supposed to pay attention if you are anywhere in that cone that the NHC draws on thier maps?
Viewing: 701 - 751
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