High wind shear ripping into 97L
A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression.
Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning. As 97L moves through the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for the region.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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sheeeshh. i get the point already >.>
not right? I stated before my post "this will never happen" and i stated after my post "nothing against the cayman islands" and "nothing against the nhc". but i see you posted around the same time that i did
It's updating in 18 mins
New maps should be out soon. CIMSS are from over four hours ago... and it did look different then.
I have been looking south of the system and you can see low level clouds veering SW:
Shear is easily 30-35kts.......maybe this loop will help you!
It is very interesting
on second thought if it was i guess the NHC would be on top of it
No, that is tied to the stalled out front draped over FL.
ok thanks
sorry meant 30-35
I'm watching it also
Mexico...
ok thanks WPB
i will
it just looks foreboding to me
and before anybody bashes me i said TO ME
In the next TWO 97L will have:
A)Yellow Circle
B)Orange Circle
C)Red Circle
D)No Circle
I think it is due to the ULL lifting out to the NW
A) Yellow
A
greetings my fellow wave watcher
American League
American League East
Team W L L10 Strk
Boston 55 36 6-4 L 2
N.Y. Yankees 54 37 6-4 W 3
Tampa Bay 51 41 7-3 W 3
Thank You..
B, because there are westerlies in the island, the ULL is lifting north and the ASCAT showed some interesting winds.
Viewing: 351 - 401
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