Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

I am from the yc area/coastal nj is pretty close.I can't wait to see it a cyclone here.

Quoting Drakoen:
She's going to need a miracle:

Drak i concur........97L is toast...i miracle might be an understatement....people are wanting shear maps....all you have to do is look at Satellite and what is causing the shear and where it is going....i don't need a shear map to show me what is going to happen...40-50kts is what 97L will be hitting in the next 6hrs........POOF

Well, should be much easy to dig the gave this time, the soil is loose. I would wait until morning before I put it under, buring alive twice is real bad form.

lol here is the daily flip flop on 97L, it happened yesterday and then BAP model forecasted it to happen today as well

it was right on the money LMAO

Quoting Acemmett90:

becuase for a second there it was trying to come back
now it looks like this

14 minutes is only enough time for like 2 frames XD

Quoting TampaSpin:


Drak i concur........97L is toast...i miracle might be an understatement....people are wanting shear maps....all you have to do is look at Satellite and what is causing the shear and where it is going....i don't need a shear map to show me what is going to happen...40-50kts is what 97L will be hitting in the next 6hrs........POOF

You're jumping to conclusions too fast TS. You have been saying that for days now...

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yes it is...I've never use the NAM for tropical weather and I wont start now.

All the models are picking up at least a weak system running up the east coast. Only the NAM and CMC turn it into a powerful system though. Could be remnants of 97 interacting with a cut off low, don't really know yet, just got home from work.

Shears increasing by 30 knots in front of it. It doesnt have a chance.

Also the ULL will be slowing down and maybe almost stall and start heading possible SW soon......more shearing coming.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number THREE
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB03-2009
17:30 AM IST July 20 2009
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over northwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and intensified into a deep depression. Deep Depression BOB93-2009 located at 21.0N 88.0E or about 100 kms southeast of Digha, 120 kms east-southeast of Balasore, and 250 kms west-southwest of Khepupara.

The Dvorak Intensity of the system is T2.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection lies over northwest bay of bengal between 18.5N and 21.5N and Orissa and Chhattisgarh. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -70C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 988 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is low to moderate (around 10-20 knots). Sea surface temperature is about 29C. The system is supported by upper level divergence and lower level convergence. Strong east-southeasterly winds prevail over the region in the upper tropospheric level. However, the sytem is moving closer to coast as observed at 1200 UTC, the 24 hour pressure fall is higher in the west-northwesterly direction.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross north Orissa-West Bengal coast between Balasore and Digha around 1800 UTC, today.



sure upgrade to deep depression, IMD I just don't get it.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Shears increasing by 30 knots in front of it. It doesnt have a chance.

That is nearly a 100 miles away from it, shear is actually decreasing close ahead of it.

Quoting GatorWX:


All the models are picking up at least a weak system running up the east coast. Only the NAM and CMC turn it into a powerful system though. Could be remnants of 97 interacting with a cut off low, don't really know yet, just got home from work.

The image I posted is 27 hours out. Not the remnants of anything. Looks to be whatever is off of the Carolinas.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Shears increasing by 30 knots in front of it. It doesnt have a chance.

ouch.. i thought some highs were supposed to bridge magically make all the shear disappear? what happened to that?

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
lol here is the daily flip flop on 97L, it happened yesterday and then BAP model forecasted it to happen today as well

it was right on the money LMAO

Yep, the blog is getting sheared now too it looks.

Shear will not inrease over 97l.Should stay same or slightly fluctuate till tomorrow evening.Than wrf weakens the shear by 15 to 20kt.I think wrf is a good shear model so i believe it.

Quoting futuremet:


That is nearly a 100 miles away from it, shear is actually decreasing close ahead of it.

Come on futuremet. You gotta know when to give up...its surrounded by over 20+ knots of shear with the exception of that minuscule area of marginal shear. Ill give it 12 hours then if its looking worse then im done with it.

Extended Forecast Discussion

THE NEW ECMWF IS THE ONLY DETERMINISTIC MODEL FROM THE 12Z/20 CYCLE TO NOT SPIN UP A LOW NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH DAYS 4 AND 5...AND CONSIDERING ITS GOOD CONTINUITY AND THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW OVER THE EAST THIS SUMMER...RELIED ON ITS SOLUTION THERE.

Quoting futuremet:


You're jumping to conclusions too fast TS. You have been saying that for days now...

In your opinon im jumping to conclusions......In my opinion it has little to no chance. If a small amount of the energy could be around until Thursday then maybe something could form....its going to be all hostile until Thursday when things change...Your right i have been saying this for days. I think i have been right on also tho.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Come on futuremet. You gotta know when to give up...its surrounded by over 20+ knots of shear with the exception of that minuscule area of marginal shear. Ill give it 12 hours then if its looking worse then im done with it.

I guess you forgot about the anticyclone

Quoting futuremet:


That is nearly a 100 miles away from it, shear is actually decreasing close ahead of it.

Agree. And that's the difference between last night and tonight, imo.

Was entering the higher shear last night. Should be entering lower shear tonight.

If it goes N, then agree, most likely done.

If it can stay S, it'll be fine. At least for the next 12 hours or so.

"97L is RIP"
"Convection is increasing, its not done yet"
"Shear is killing it, say good-bye to 97L"
"Deosnt look like 30 knots of shear over 97L"
"It looks ragged now"
"You have said it was dead every night and its still around"
"Its making a comeback"
"Is it going to hit Florida?"

I dont think the shear is killing 97L, I think you are all confusing it to death lmao

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


ouch.. i thought some highs were supposed to bridge magically make all the shear disappear? what happened to that?

Who knows? Not me

Hiya ((( Tim ))) !!!

SHIPS still forecasting shear over the next 96 hours or so *shrugs*

Quoting STORMMASTERG:
Shear will not inrease over 97l.Should stay same or slightly fluctuate till tomorrow evening.Than wrf weakens the shear by 15 to 20kt.I think wrf is a good shear model so i believe it.

enough with the WRF model.

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
"97L is RIP"
"Convection is increasing, its not done yet"
"Shear is killing it, say good-bye to 97L"
"Deosnt look like 30 knots of shear over 97L"
"It looks ragged now"
"You have said it was dead every night and its still around"
"Its making a comeback"
"Is it going to hit Florida?"

I dont think the shear is killing 97L, I think you are all confusing it to death lmao

You were saying it was dead last night. I wouldn't be so quick to cast stones.

Does not really matter who gives up in the blog 97L needs to give up last time I checked it has no ears or mouth to respond.

Quoting futuremet:


You're jumping to conclusions too fast TS. You have been saying that for days now...

He's been saying the same stuff for days. And its still there. At this point, I don't trust his "analysis".

Quoting weatherwatcher12:

I guess you forgot about the anticyclone

What anticyclone? Im pretty sure an anticyclone cant save it from a TUTT with 50knots of shear.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


You were saying it was dead last night. I wouldn't be so quick to cast stones.

I never said it was dead, I acknowledged it was getting blasted with shear. You might want to go back and look, before you judge what I said

.

ugh this crow tastes aweful =/

Would like to hear from Stormdude77, re. conditions in Barbados right now.
97 is dumping heavy rains there, and upperlevel winds are nne over a section of it, bringing weather toward Trinidad.
Pressure in Trinidad is 1009, falling.
Heavy, scattered showers all day. No wind.

Pointless bickering over garbage.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


What anticyclone? Im pretty sure an anticyclone cant save it from a TUTT with 50knots of shear.

The one above panama

Same peeps, same argument, same time of day.

Quoting BajaALemt:
Hiya ((( Tim ))) !!!

SHIPS still forecasting shear over the next 96 hours or so *shrugs*

Hi Lynn,
YOu got to watch posting what you just did...its not a healthy environment!. Watch saying Shear very loud....LOL

Quoting TampaSpin:


Hi Lynn,
YOu got to watch posting what you just did...its not a healthy environment!. Watch saying Shear very loud....LOL

You are a piece of work

Please, can the new blob in the east ATL please stand up?

Shea ris not 50kts over 97l.Its 25 to 30kts.Plus u can't be sure those number are accuarate.The trough thats been causing the shear will ift,so i can't see the 50kt shear axis effecting it.

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I never said it was dead, I acknowledged it was getting blasted with shear. You might want to go back and look, before you judge what I said

I stand corrected. Oh and I wasnt judging you lol...

I going to step back before I say something I regret lol

Quoting Drakoen:
Pointless bickering over garbage.

Forever more known as PBOG. Or, in other words, SSDD. lol

LOL Tim.... like this is anything NEW? Been interesting to have a LITTLE SOMETHING to watch anyway ;)

Barbados, wind ese, pressure 1012 steady.
Could the low be relocating? If it does that, it changes things around a bit.

where exactly is this anticyclone i keep hearing about?

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Come on futuremet. You gotta know when to give up...its surrounded by over 20+ knots of shear with the exception of that minuscule area of marginal shear. Ill give it 12 hours then if its looking worse then im done with it.

LOL

You have to understand that east axis of the TUTT is lift out first. The overall mean shear is decreasing.

Current Wind shear...tendency




24hrs ago




There is a patch of decreasing wind shear values just ahead of it, and further coalescence is probable tonight. Convective pulses are actually occuring near the COC, and streaming patterns are not as pronounced as they were last night and earlier this morning. It is delusional observe the shearing outflow flanks of this system, which gives the impression that it is being sheared.

It is more than 100 miles away from the high shear; 1 degree of longitude at this location is about 60-65 statute miles. It is more like 500 or 600 miles away from that shear. It'll be about a day before it hits that spot. 3 hours ago that spot wasn't there; it's kind of ridiculous then to talk about 24-30 hours.

Directly in front of 97L is an area of very low shear. And the satellite presentation shows that it's taking advantage; a blob of intense convection has formed over the LLC and expanded westward in the past hour.