High wind shear ripping into 97L
A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression.
Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning. As 97L moves through the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for the region.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Notice how it went negative when El Nino started...now its starting to reverse.
They are looking for persistence first.
for some reason when i picture you i picture weeza from the movie steel magnolias
Actually if that Anticyclone goes the right direction towards 97L, there will be a chance. I mean, we both could be wrong, we're both not experts :P
Just observing I guess.. It's always fun to do so.
Ive seen more positive than negative.
Just click on the cane pic lol.Sorry brother i dont wishcast every thunderstorm that pops across the atl.
maybe
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 201739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
SOI is recovering with pressure changes in the S. Pacific and was expected.
Why is that?
This system will be moving into a patch of lower shear values just west of the Antilles, in addition to the fact that the TUTT is lifting. Albeit mesoscale kinks of the TUTT into the Caribbean is not improbable, the propagation of the STR should keep most of the shear north.
well she was my favorite charectar
Animation of Total and Partial Shadow on Earth's Surface
(You can make a GIF of the actual appearance from weather satellite photos.)
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell sharply through the first three weeks of May and remained strongly negative through the first half of June. Recently the SOI has increased and become slightly positive with a current (6 July) approximate 30 day value of +1. The SOI value for June was −2. The lowest 30 day SOI value recorded in June was −12, on the 13th. Higher than normal mean sea level pressure (MSLP) at Tahiti during the past fortnight, has caused the recent increase in the SOI. The MSLP at Tahiti is expected to fall again as the Pacific continues to warm and the Trade Winds remain generally weaker than normal. The SOI, therefore, is also expected to fall, that is, become negative again.
What about all the storms that strengthened there?
1 comes to mind was Dean
Overcast with light showers
Winds NE - E @ 10 - 15mph
Looks like 97L is heading directly for St. Lucia.
Yup it is..LOL
40 years ago today.
I really see very little chance for this to develope with the digging trof in the gulf,the westerly jet is entrenched down there with no signs of possibly shifting north.
I agree, to me by mentioning it at all it tells me they have some doubts about the shear forecasts
Whoever said this was gonna be dead or RIPed by now.. Your crow is ready :)
LINK
From: SWhite3726 at aol.com
Date: Mon, 20 Jul 2009 11:33:09 EDT
Hi All,
Well as you know I am still learning much about the weather, but todays I guess must be due to the I97 that stormcarib has been warning us about for a good few days.
Had a good sunny start but that was very quickly replaced by lots of heavy rain, and that has been about it for the rest of the morning so far! Lots of really heavy showers, strong winds during them, but no thunder etc around today. The gusts of wind are very strong, they've been blowing the garden furniture around, so tied them down before they end up in my neighbours garden down the hill!
Any big changes I will update the situation, take care everyone
From: SWhite3726 at aol.com
Date: Mon, 20 Jul 2009 11:33:09 EDT
Hi All,
Well as you know I am still learning much about the weather, but todays I guess must be due to the I97 that stormcarib has been warning us about for a good few days.
Had a good sunny start but that was very quickly replaced by lots of heavy rain, and that has been about it for the rest of the morning so far! Lots of really heavy showers, strong winds during them, but no thunder etc around today. The gusts of wind are very strong, they've been blowing the garden furniture around, so tied them down before they end up in my neighbours garden down the hill!
Any big changes I will update the situation, take care everyone
StormMasterG is what the Weather Channel calls Dr. Greg Forbes
Because they know their forecast could be wrong.
Exactly.
lol forgot about him
That's incredible!!!!!!!!! Just incredible!!
I've got goose bumps in places you don't even wanna know about...
Thanks!
Don't be surprised if that moisture is drawn up some by the trough in the GOM.
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