Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

July hurricane outlook

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 07:26 PM GMT del 02 Luglio 2009

Atlantic tropical cyclone activity typically picks up a bit during the first half of July. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, seven of 14 years (50%) have had a named storm form during the first half of July. The busiest first half of July occurred in 2005, when three hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. As seen in Figure 1, most of the early July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Carolina waters. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes begin to occur. These are spawned by tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa. Tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes. Last year's Hurricane Bertha was one such rare early July Cape Verdes hurricane. Bertha's 120 mph winds made it the sixth strongest early-season Atlantic hurricane on record. Bertha also set the record for farthest east formation as a tropical storm, hurricane, and major hurricane, so early in the season.

Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 1-15. North Carolina and the Gulf of Mexico coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Oddly, the Florida Peninsula has been struck by only two storms that formed in the first half of July.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) anomalies have warmed slightly over the past two weeks, but are close to average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America (Figure 2). These are the are the coolest SST anomalies we've seen since 1994. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. Stronger-than-average trade winds were observed through most of the period November 2008 - May 2009, which helped cool the tropical Atlantic substantially. Strong winds mix up colder water from the depths and cause greater evaporative cooling. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through mid-July, so SSTs should remain near average during this period.

Typically, July tropical storms form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida. SSTs are about 1.0°C above average for this time of year in the Gulf of Mexico, but near average elsewhere. July storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. There will be one or two fronts moving off the U.S. coast over the next two weeks, and we will need to watch these for development. Wind shear is too high and SSTs are usually too cold in July to allow African tropical waves to develop into tropical storms. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes,

Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 2, 2009. SSTs were near average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño
El Niño conditions continue to amplify over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures there rose 0.5°C over the past two weeks, and are now 0.45°C above the threshold for El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Figure 3). NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch in early June, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños, and latest set of mid-June runs of the El Niño computer models are almost universally calling for El Niño conditions to become well-established for the peak months of hurricane season, August - October. It is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed in 2009 due to the strong upper-level winds and resulting wind shear an El Niño event usually brings to the tropical Atlantic.

Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of June 28, 2009, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.95°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in July over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past two months has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Tropical Depression One formed at the end of May.

The jet stream is forecast (Figure 4) to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. This means that the waters offshore of the Carolinas are the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period.

Figure 4. Wind shear in m/s between 200 mb and 850 mb, as forecast by the 06Z July 02, 2009 run of the GFS model. The position and strength of the subtropical jet stream is forecast to change little over the next two weeks, and this jet will bring high wind shear to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico into mid-July. There will at times be a region of low shear between the polar jet (northern set of arrows on the plots) and the subtropical jet, allowing for possible tropical development off the coast of North Carolina. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
June and July are the peak months for dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past month. Expect dust from Africa to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in July.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern over the past few weeks has not changed much, and is typical for June and July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. At present, it appears that the coming two weeks will maintain the typical July pattern, bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast capable of recurving any July storms that might form. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2006 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Recent history suggests a 50% chance of a named storm occurring in the first half of July. Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, and SST and wind shear patterns look pretty average, I'll go with a 20% chance of a named storm forming during the first half of July.

Vote for Mike Theiss as an Antarctica blogger
Extreme weather photographer Mike Theiss, who wrote our Ultimate Chase photography blog for two years until a new job took him to South America, wants your help. He's entering a Quark Expeditions competition to receive an expense-paid 2-week trip to Antarctica, where he will do some intensive photography and blogging. In order to go, he needs the votes to show that he's a popular blogger. So, if you liked his posts while he was blogging for wunderground, and want to see him blog for wunderground during this potential Antarctica voyage, go to http://www.blogyourwaytoantarctica.com/blogs/view /220 and cast a vote. It takes about 3 minutes navigate through the registration and voting process. Mike will be back chasing hurricanes this August, and has promised to post his excellent storm photos on wunderground should we help him secure the Antarctica gig.

Have a great holiday weekend, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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2301. Chicklit 11:51 AM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Good Morning! 415 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2009 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... SOUTHWEST WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AT 20 MPH. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS AND MOVE TOWARD THE TREASURE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH STORMS...SOME STRONG...MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST EACH AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS. Member Since: Luglio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10235

2302. K8eCane 11:51 AM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
its been pouring here all morning Member Since: Aprile 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2369

2303. Chicklit 11:52 AM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Congratulations Ike. Glad you're finally getting some rain. Member Since: Luglio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10235

2304. IKE 11:58 AM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Quoting Chicklit: Congratulations Ike. Glad you're finally getting some rain. I'm under a severe TS warning...flash flood warning. Who needs a tropical storm? Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2305. SpicyAngel1072 12:01 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
yeah Ike! about time for you :) Member Since: Settembre 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315

2306. WxLogic 12:01 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Quoting IKE: I'm under a severe TS warning...flash flood warning. Who needs a tropical storm? (^.^)/ Member Since: Agosto 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4666

2307. all4hurricanes 12:01 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE... GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Basically they say this will be a depression by 11 Member Since: Marzo 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2190

2308. WPBHurricane05 12:05 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Quoting all4hurricanes: 1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE... GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Basically they say this will be a depression by 11 Looks like a depression right now. Member Since: Luglio 31, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 7895

2309. WPBHurricane05 12:08 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
GFS forecasting a Cape Verde storm. Maybe we'll get Ana...how many times have we heard that? Member Since: Luglio 31, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 7895

2310. IKE 12:15 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Quoting WPBHurricane05: GFS forecasting a Cape Verde storm. Maybe we'll get Ana...how many times have we heard that? At least 1,000. I don't believe the GFS. Definitely not 10+ days out. I don't see anything in the Atlantic through the 15th of July, which will put this year behind the norm. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2311. Tazmanian 12:17 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
we got a new TS but it looks like they for got too update the winds WHXX01 KMIA 061207 CHGE77 TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1207 UTC MON JUL 6 2009 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA (EP032009) 20090706 0600 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 090706 0600 090706 1800 090707 0600 090707 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 16.7N 111.2W 17.8N 113.3W 18.5N 115.3W 19.1N 117.2W BAMD 16.7N 111.2W 17.4N 113.2W 18.0N 115.1W 18.4N 117.1W BAMM 16.7N 111.2W 17.6N 113.2W 18.2N 115.1W 18.7N 117.0W LBAR 16.7N 111.2W 17.2N 113.1W 17.9N 115.2W 18.6N 117.4W SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS 40KTS DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS 40KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 090708 0600 090709 0600 090710 0600 090711 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 19.5N 118.9W 20.0N 122.3W 20.1N 125.7W 20.1N 128.9W BAMD 18.8N 119.1W 19.6N 122.9W 20.9N 126.1W 22.4N 128.7W BAMM 19.2N 118.8W 20.0N 122.3W 20.8N 125.7W 21.7N 128.5W LBAR 19.5N 119.4W 21.6N 123.1W 25.0N 126.1W 30.0N 127.1W SHIP 38KTS 31KTS 21KTS 0KTS DSHP 38KTS 31KTS 21KTS 0KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 111.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 109.8W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 9KT LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 107.3W WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111307

2312. Tazmanian 12:20 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
its on the navy site 03E.BLANCA Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111307

2313. IKE 12:23 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Blanca is a......no-doubter...a fish....... Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2314. IKE 12:29 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BLANCA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009 530 AM PDT MON JUL 06 2009 ...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2009 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON FORMS... AT 530 AM PDT...1230 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 420 MILES...675 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. BLANCA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO REACH COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. ...SUMMARY OF 530 AM PDT INFORMATION... LOCATION...17.1N 111.8W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2315. extreme236 12:43 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Quoting IKE: Blanca is a......no-doubter...a fish....... Most EPAC storms are Member Since: Agosto 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

2316. Tazmanian 12:46 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
well the E PAC has now had two name storm one hurricane and one TS and one TD wish would be TD 1E Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111307

2317. IKE 12:46 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Quoting extreme236: Most EPAC storms are Agree. That's why I don't pay much attention to it. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2318. JugheadFL 12:49 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Blanca is powering up! Member Since: Maggio 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 23

2319. IKE 12:51 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2009 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2320. Orcasystems 12:58 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Blog Update Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates AOI AOI Member Since: Ottobre 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

2321. extreme236 01:04 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Quoting IKE: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2009 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN Wouldnt mind having a little blob to track at some point... Member Since: Agosto 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

2322. sporteguy03 01:04 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Ike, Is that fish from the 70s? looks groovy. Member Since: Luglio 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 4824

2323. Ossqss 01:05 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Alternate Tropical Discussion from this AM Member Since: Giugno 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

2324. sporteguy03 01:05 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Thanks in Advance for the update Dr.Masters. Member Since: Luglio 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 4824

2325. IKE 01:14 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Quoting sporteguy03: Ike, Is that fish from the 70s? looks groovy. Partridge Family fish... Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2326. A4Guy 01:14 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Wha is the record for the FEWEST named storms ina season...and did any of those hit the US that year? (this is a question...not as quiz, as I do not know). Just remember how late in the season Andrew formed...late August. Don't remember how many named storms we had that year, but the season started awfully slow that year...but it didn't really matter, as we all know what happened. Thanks. Member Since: Giugno 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 646

2327. stormwatcherCI 01:19 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Quoting A4Guy: Wha is the record for the FEWEST named storms ina season...and did any of those hit the US that year? (this is a question...not as quiz, as I do not know). Just remember how late in the season Andrew formed...late August. Don't remember how many named storms we had that year, but the season started awfully slow that year...but it didn't really matter, as we all know what happened. Thanks. 6 named storms in 1992 Member Since: Ottobre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

2329. HurricaneSwirl 01:22 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Quoting A4Guy: Wha is the record for the FEWEST named storms ina season...and did any of those hit the US that year? (this is a question...not as quiz, as I do not know). Just remember how late in the season Andrew formed...late August. Don't remember how many named storms we had that year, but the season started awfully slow that year...but it didn't really matter, as we all know what happened. Thanks. 1914 had 1 tropical storm, and it did hit the U.S. But many question the reliability of that so if you want something reliable then it is 1977 with 6 named storms.. However that season had a cat 1 hurricane landfall in the U.S. and a cat 5 landfall in mexico. Member Since: Luglio 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

2330. AllStar17 01:24 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Blanca is strengthening quickly now. 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 061238 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLANCA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009 530 AM PDT MON JUL 06 2009 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. RECENT DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ARE BOTH 2.5...AND A 0921 UTC AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE AMSR-E IMAGE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BLANCA. If she keeps organizing, she may become a hurricane. She already looks better than Andres when he was a hurricane. Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

2331. Michfan 01:24 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Finally some damn rain!!! Good morning everyone. Member Since: Settembre 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1550

2332. CybrTeddy 01:27 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Gustav had an eye-like feature before it blew up. Blanca might do the same. Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20179

2333. HIEXPRESS 01:30 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
1 dead, 18 taken to hospitals when lightning strikes at Fourth of July gathering in Fla. Member Since: Ottobre 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2153

2335. AllStar17 01:34 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy: Gustav had an eye-like feature before it blew up. Blanca might do the same. Looking very good, and looking even better than Andres did when he was a HURRICANE! Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

2336. IKE 01:43 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Quoting btwntx08: look at 456's post I saw it. I don't believe the GFS. Spins up too many ghost storms. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2337. CybrTeddy 01:48 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Quoting IKE: I saw it. I don't believe the GFS. Spins up too many ghost storms. Idk what happened to the GFS, it used to get them all last year. Hmm. Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20179

2338. nrtiwlnvragn 01:50 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
The 00Z ECMWF has a system coming off of Africa at 120 hrs and then dissipates it at 216 hrs. Would not put too much faith in it, but watch future runs. Member Since: Settembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8916

2339. RufusBaker 01:51 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
It is slower than ice cream out there. Member Since: Luglio 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 510

2340. stormpetrol 01:59 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Ex 94L still very defined. Member Since: Aprile 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

2341. IKE 02:02 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Quoting RufusBaker: It is slower than ice cream out there. There's nothing out there. It's over me dumping 2-4 inches of rain in the last 1 1/2 hours, making what's left of my yard look like a river flowing to a lake. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2342. AllStar17 02:03 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Quoting stormpetrol: Ex 94L still very defined. But no thunderstorms, so it cant be sub-tropical Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

2343. stormpetrol 02:06 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
Could be a hint of a circulation around 16N/70W, nothing definitive though. Member Since: Aprile 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

2344. AllStar17 02:19 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
I would update Blanca's winds to 65 mph at the 11 am advisory, looks very good on satellite. When this convection gets north of the islands...that is when I would look for any development of this feature. It does have a bit of rotation. 2343. Stormpetrol I dont see any hint of a circulation, there. It would be farther NE. Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

2345. AllStar17 02:21 PM GMT del 06 Luglio 2009
NEW BLOG Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

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