90L comes close to being the season's first named storm
The large extratropical storm (90L) that has been pounding Florida, the Bahamas, and Haiti this week with heavy rain and high surf has moved ashore over Mississippi. Last night and this morning, the storm put on an impressive burst of heavy thunderstorm activity and came close to becoming a subtropical or tropical depression. Winds at the Fort Morgan, AL station were 44 mph, gusting to 52 mph, and winds at Dauphin Island, Alabama coastal station were sustained at 39 mph, gusting to 48 mph at between 8am and 10am EDT this morning. While these winds were in excess of the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm force, both measurements were taken at elevations higher than the international wind measurement standard of ten meters, so the top measured winds of 90L were actually slightly less than tropical storm force. Had 90L spent another six hours over water, it very likely would have been declared a tropical/subtropical depression/storm.
The circulation around 90L continues to mean rain for Florida, but the rains will be lessening today. Rainfall amounts as high as 28 inches were measured this week in Northern Florida at Brunnell. Rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches have accumulated along the Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida Panhandle coasts from 90L so far (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Mobile, AL radar.
There are no other threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, so have a great weekend, and I'll have a new blog post by Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
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That means look out for seemingly harmless tropical waves sneaking under the TUTT and popping out on the other side under the Bermuda High where development close to home will be a big concern this season.
Heres a little image I put together when 92L(Bertha) was about to leave the coast.I think I did alright...
Keep in mind those were still my 'learning' days lol.
Btw Aqua, check mail.
Hurricane Return Periods
Needs to fill that hole in the middle......not sure why it's not able to do that yet.
Thats is so true. Development of waves normally occurs in the western side of the Bermuda High where convergence is greatest. We may see more random development in region 2 this year
Is that the Red Dust we are looking at?
Family Disaster Plan
Discuss the type of hazards that could affect your family. Know your home's vulnerability to storm surge, flooding and wind.
Locate a safe room or the safest areas in your home for each hurricane hazard. In certain circumstances the safest areas may not be your home but within your community.
Determine escape routes from your home and places to meet. These should be measured in tens of miles rather than hundreds of miles.
Have an out-of-state friend as a family contact, so all your family members have a single point of contact.
Make a plan now for what to do with your pets if you need to evacuate.
Post emergency telephone numbers by your phones and make sure your children know how and when to call 911.
Check your insurance coverage - flood damage is not usually covered by homeowners insurance.
Stock non-perishable emergency supplies and a Disaster Supply Kit.
Use a NOAA weather radio. Remember to replace its battery every 6 months, as you do with your smoke detectors.
Take First Aid, CPR and disaster preparedness classes.
Yes that is correct. SAL is highly unfavorable for any type of convection formation.
What do you rather prefer, the weather you have in AK or what you have down here seasonally?
Wow, that must have been quite a roller-coaster for all of you. Hopefully that won't happen again anytime soon.
those who don't remember history, are condemned to repeat it. Sad sad story.
It should be able to fill the center by tomorrow. The sooner convection develops over that area the better the chances are of it becoming a Hurricane.
That's why were stressing the Prep week here starting in a Big way tomorrow.
A choice between dead boring and potentially disastrous......I guess since I'm young I wouldn't mind potentially disastrous lol. I guess I'd prefer your guy's weather, but I would think my opinion would be different if I was one of you guys who have been through the terrible storms.
Regions 1, 3 and 4 – Average development but uncertainty with storms moving into region 1.
Region 2 – More random development and tracks
Region – 5 – Average to below normal development
2009 Hurricane Season Outlook
Cool link. Bookmarked.
Thanks Storm always good to see the dry air take over..
Guess it's time to buy the Benadryl again I am sure that stuff is going to make it over here in Florida.
We might see those fiery red and orange sunsets too..
;=)
Yeah we had a couple of those awesome sunsets last year. I should upload the pictures I took of them.
Zone 2 is rather problematic. Both Ike and Andrew passed through zone 2. As oppose to Florence 2006 and Fabian 2004, which both affected Bermuda and Maria 2005 and Helen 2006 which affected no land.
How could we forget?
lol...never could forget, I actually had it going south of the upper trough parked to its east and once it was west thereof, actually strenghten due to the upper level setup that would enhanced outflow. The upper trough dip south quickly with little mercy for Chris.
As to home grown, lets not forget that Katrina was a nothing storm off the coast of Broward, less than about 90 miles from land. As many say, it only takes 1.
Ignorance and apathy are the haulmark of disaster.
People here in Charleston are full of both. Presslord and SJ will verify that. The most common thing I hear is "my house survived Hugo". Well Hugo eyed 15 mi north of your house. Had it been 15 mi south, who knows? My point is you really can't fix stupid.
Yea lets see them..
I am on the East Coast so the landscape blocks my view.
African Red Dust
Wow thats a nice one! Ill try and upload some photos tomorrow.
LOL
LOL..there wasn't much left when the shear got to him. I guess we forgot to look at the shear forecast when making our intensity predictions.
One can say normal is wet when you live here..
;=)
During the bad hurricane seasons in the past they were saying that the month of May in those years was dry aka drought conditions.
Looking at the data from the past it supports that but like someone said here mother nature has her own plans..
We will see what happens..
Not at all.
WeatherStudent=JFV.
Could you send me a link to them Storm when you get them up?
I got to run duty calls..
Nice to see you all again thanks for the info and links everyone!
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