Vortex2: world's largest tornado research project ever, is underway
Tornado season is in full swing, and researchers are now poised in America's Great Plains with the largest armada of storm chasing vehicles and equipment ever assembled, in order to learn more about these enigmatic and violent storms. The massive Vortex2 field study began Sunday, and for the next seven weeks over 100 scientists in up to 40 science and support vehicles will be roaming through Tornado Alley, seeking to catch tornadoes on the rampage. The three basic questions the $10 million study will attempt to answer are:
- How, when, and why do tornadoes form? Why some are violent and long lasting while others are weak and short lived?
- What is the structure of tornadoes? How strong are the winds near the ground? How exactly do they do damage?
- How can we learn to forecast tornadoes better? Current warnings have an only 13 minute average lead time and a 70% false alarm rate. Can we make warnings more accurate? Can we warn 30, 45, 60 minutes ahead?'
Figure 1. Tornado over Matador, Texas on April 29, 2009. Photo taken by Texas Tech meteorology graduate student Danielle Turner.
Major tornado outbreak possible Wednesday
The Vortex2 project will have its first good chance to help answer these questions on Wednesday, when a strong cold front is expected to pass through an unstable air mass over Missouri and Illinois, triggering severe thunderstorms with tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has given these states a "Moderate" chance of severe weather, the second highest alert level. Today, the Vortex2 armada is stationed in western Oklahoma. The cold front that is expected to trigger Wednesday's severe weather outbreak will be moving through Oklahoma today, bringing a slight chance of severe weather to that state. You can follow the progress of the Vortex2 field project this Spring through our new featured Vortex2 blog. This blog is being written by a team of six University of Michigan students that will help deploy the Texas Tech "Sticknet" sensors during a tornado.
Figure 2. Severe weather outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center for Wednesday, May 13.
An average tornado season so far over the U.S.
Through April, U.S. tornado activity was very close to the mean observed during the past five years, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, there were just 15 tornado deaths through April, compared to 70 deaths through April of 2008, and the 3-year average of 60 deaths. According to the unofficial seasonal stats at Wikipedia, we've had 57 strong EF2 and EF3 tornadoes so far this year, and two violent EF4 tornadoes. These are fairly typical numbers of strong and violent tornadoes for this point in the season. The season's first EF4 hit Lone Grove, Oklahoma on February 10, killing eight, injuring 46, and destroying 114 homes, and was the strongest February tornado to hit Oklahoma since 1950. The season's second EF4 hit Murfreesboro, Tennessee on April 10, killing two.
Wunderground launches high-definition radar product
In case you missed my post on this in December, wunderground is now providing imagery from a network of 45 Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) units located at airports across the U.S. The radars were developed and deployed by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) beginning in 1994, as a response to several disastrous jetliner crashes in the 1970s and 1980s caused by strong thunderstorm winds. The crashes occurred because of wind shear--a sudden change in wind speed and direction. Wind shear is common in thunderstorms, due to a downward rush of air called a microburst or downburst. The TDWRs can detect such dangerous wind shear conditions, and have been instrumental in enhancing aviation safety in the U.S. over the past 15 years. The TDWRs also measure the same quantities as our familiar network of 148 NEXRAD WSR-88D Doppler radars--precipitation intensity, winds, rainfall rate, echo tops, etc. However, the newer Terminal Doppler Weather Radars are higher resolution, and can "see" details in much finer detail close to the radar. This high-resolution data has generally not been available to the public until now. Thanks to a collaboration between the National Weather Service (NWS) and the FAA, the data for all 44 of 45 TDWRs is now available in real time. We're calling them "High-Def" stations on our NEXRAD radar page, and they are denoted by a yellow "+" symbol. Only one TDWR radar (Las Vegas) remains to be added; this will happen in June. For more info on how to interpret the new TDWR images, see our radar FAQ page.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The water off the west coast of Florida is very warm and could cause trouble now, or later in the year.
Mon-Thu...the GFS and European model (ecmwf) indicate that southern portion of trough
moving across the southeast states will cut off over the central
to southeast Gulf of Mexico. I am not so sure that the initial
low the GFS shows moving north Monday-Tuesday from the Florida Straits to
northeast Florida will be as organized initially as the model
forecasts it to be. Whatever happens at the surface will take some
more time to pinpoint. The main thing is that it looks like we
will remain on the moist side of the developing cut off low. If
things work out as prognosticated...some much needed widespread rainfall
is possible.
Welcome back.
Good decision man. Welcome back.
thats old the date says may 3dr
I don't see any bickering.
I say this cause I'll be in Pensacola a week from today.
Only concern is this low that I keep seeing on the models...even if it does head over to New Orleans it will probably up the chances of rain in the Pensacola area. :-/
Oops...hey, I haven't seen you on here in awhile.
Sounds like something exactly like what JFV/Presidentialelection would say. You really can't deny it bud...I dont have a problem with you and if you would just admit it..everyone would be good with you and you'd be back to normal on the blog...Just fess up to it, your a grown man now.
I'm great; thanks for asking! I agree about the warmth of the Gulf basically being in the south, but it looks like it is rapidly moving north and filling in. Also, what's your take on rainy season here in Florida? Is this rain that we're getting from Tampa south only short-lived, or are we beginning our transition from Fire Season?
Good morning everyone!!!!
I see your Subscription for No-ads has expired.
Shall I upgrade your wunderblogger account Sir,..?
425 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2009
.SHORT TERM...
SOME INTERESTING THINGS SHOWING UP IN ALL MODEL SUITES FROM THE
NORTH AMERICAN TO THE EUROPEAN. STARTING WITH THE SHORT TERM...A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WEST THROUGH THE GULF THIS MORNING
LOCATED ALONG 90WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP BRING SOME NOCTURNALS
ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE FEATURE HAS ALSO INCREASED THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL ADD TO THE RAIN CHANCES
FOR TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE VERTICAL UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES SUN NIGHT.
SH/TS WILL DEVELOP TODAY BY WAY OF A WELL DEVELOPED C-BRZ. DUE TO
THE INCREASED MOISTURE DEPTH PROVIDED BY THE WAVE...THE C-BRZ
SHOULD DEVELOP RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING BECOMING THE
DOMINANT FORCING FEATURE. MICRO-ENVIRONMENT SHOWS THAT WE SHOULD
GET SOME ACTIVITY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE INLAND GETS NEAR ZERO. DURING THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE
MORE ACTIVITY INLAND AND CLOSE TO ZERO ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS.
WILL SEE INCREASED MOISTURE DEPTH EACH DAY SO FRI WHOULD RECEIVE A
FEW MORE SH/TS THAN TODAY ETC... LOOKS LIKE THE C-BRZ SHOULD GET
ACTIVATED EACH DAY UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN SUPPRESSION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAY WEAKEN THE FEATURE A LITTLE.
.LONG TERM...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SUPPORTING THE
FRONTS MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA IS JUST NOW COMING INTO THE WEST
COAST AT VANCOUVER. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AT ABOUT 68.5W WILL GRADUALLY FIND
ITSELF IN THE EASTERN GULF AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
IS DIGGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL HELP EVACUATE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVES COLUMN
CAUSING IT TO DEEPEN A LITTLE. THIS OCCURS WHILE THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW THAT IS FORMING TRIES TO DEVELOP A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION AND WRAPS UNLIMITED MOISTURE AROUND ITS CIRCULATION.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OFFSHORE WHILE THIS OCCURS PROVIDING
SEVERAL DAYS OF SH/TS FOR AT LEAST THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME ONSHORE LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
"THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OFFSHORE WHILE THIS OCCURS PROVIDING
SEVERAL DAYS OF SH/TS FOR AT LEAST THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME ONSHORE LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.".....
I thought the italics part said sh*t. LOL.
I bet they just did that to be funny.
LOL
I've done that too .
i see they added some in new called Polar Imagery
Link
You always seem to livin up the blog, whether it be intentional, or un-intentional (SH/TS) LOL
Not yet!
It hit 93°F in New Orleans? Gees I didnt realize that we were already creeping that high!
ANY WEAKNESS/CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER FL/ERN GULF WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYS. HOWEVER...WE REJECT THE CANADIAN SCENARIO OF A FULL BLOWN TROPICAL SYS MOVING INTO S ATLANTIC STATES THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
Here was St Dominic's Church Post Katrina,where the water was Higher than the Church alter.
The Church is East of the 17th Street Canal Breech by 1 mile.
Last Night my Daughter and the Rest of the Dominican Class of 2009 held there Graduation Mass there. I hadnt returned to St. Dominic's since the Woes of August-September of 2005.
As I sat in the pew and watched these fantastic Girls walk in Side by side,..I realized they were Freshman when the Storm hit.
So in one respect,everything came Full Circle.
A reoccurring theme for many last night.
It was fantastic.
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