Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Is the globe cooling?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:48 PM GMT del 04 Febbraio 2009

Recently, one has been hearing statements in the media like, the "twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming" and the Earth has been cooling since 1998. Let's take a look at the validity of these statements. The warmest year on record, according to both NASA and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), was 2005. However, 1998 was virtually tied with 2005 for warmth, and the United Kingdom Hadley Center and Climatic Research Unit data set (HadCRU) rates 1998 as the warmest year on record. The three data sets use different methods, such as how they interpolate over missing data regions over the Arctic Ocean, and so they arrive at slightly different numbers for the the global average temperature. All three data sets are considered equally valid, so ignoring two of the three major data sets to claim that the globe has been cooling since 1998 is "cherry picking" the data to show the result you want.

Furthermore, 1997-1998 El Niño event was the second strongest of the past century. El Niño events directly warm a large part of the Pacific, and indirectly warm (via a large increase in water vapor), an even larger region. This extra warming--estimated to have boosted the global temperature an extra 0.1-0.2°C--made 1998's warmth spike sharply upwards from the globe's usual temperature. The climate is best measured by a multi-year average of global temperatures, in order to remove shorter-term oscillations in weather patterns like El Niño. It is not scientifically valid to base a cooling argument on a year that spiked sharply upwards from the norm because of one the largest El Niño events in recorded history. A valid way to measure whether the globe is warming or cooling is to use the average global temperature for the past ten years or longer. The 1999-2008 period was significantly warmer (by 0.18°C, according to NOAA) than the previous ten year period, despite the fact the record (or near-record) warmest year 1998 was part of this previous period. Thus, it is scientifically correct to say the globe has been warming since 1998, not cooling. This warming rate has been about 0.16°C per decade over the past thirty years. Note that even over time periods as long as eight years, the average global temperature is not always a good measure of the long-term global warming trend--particularly if a large volcanic eruption in the tropics occurs.

How often should we expect to see a new global temperature record?
The climate should warm at a rate of about 0.19°C (0.34°F) per decade, according to the computer climate models used to formulate the "official word" on climate, the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Thus, we should expect to see frequent "warmest years on record". However, 2006, 2007, and 2008 were all cooler than 2005, and 2008 was merely the ninth warmest year on record. We know that the weather has a high degree of natural variability, with warmer than average years mixed in with cooler ones. How often, then, should we expect to set a new global temperature record if the climate is warming in accordance with global warming theory?

Figure 1. Predicted and observed global annual average temperatures between 1990-2008. The thin colored lines represent 55 individual runs of the twenty computer climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report. These runs were done for the A1B "business as usual" scenario, which most closely matches recent emissions. The thick black line is the multi-model mean, and the thick colored lines with symbols denote actual observations, as computed by the three major research groups that estimate annual global temperatures. The sharp down spike in 1991-1992 is due to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, which cooled the Earth for two years. You can make these type of plots yourself, using the publicly available PCMDI IPCC AR4 archive. Image credit: Dr. Gavin Schmidt, realclimate.org.

The twenty models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report (Figure 1) all predict the climate will warm, but with a lot of year-to-year variability due to natural weather patterns such as El Niño. Some of the IPCC models forecast periods lasting many years (in the extreme case, twenty years) with no global warming, due to natural climate and weather oscillations. If one plots up the cumulative distribution of these IPCC model runs to see how often a global average temperature record should be broken (Figure 2), one sees that the models predict a 50% chance that we'll unambiguously break the record every six years. By an unambiguous record, I mean a record that exceeds the previous one by at least 0.1°C. We've now gone ten years without unambiguously breaking the global temperature record, which the models say should happen 25% of the time. There is a 5% chance we'll go eighteen years without unambiguously breaking the record, so it is quite possible for natural variability in the climate system to obscure the global warming signal for periods of nearly twenty years. If we still haven't had a new global temperature record by 2018, then it is time to question global warming theory. If the theory is correct, there is a good chance that we will break the global temperature record during the next year that has a moderate or stonger El Niño event (and no major volcanic eruption in the tropics, since such major eruptions can dramatically cool the climate). Since we have La Niña conditions to start 2009, it is unlikely this year will break the record.

Figure 2. Cumulative distribution of how long one would have to wait for a new global temperature record to be set between the years 1990 and 2030. Image is based on the twenty climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report, using the A1B "business as usual" scenario. The curves should be read as the percentage chance of seeing a new record (Y axis) if you waited the number of years on the X axis. The two curves are for a new record of any size (black) and for an unambiguous record (> 0.1°C above the previous record, red). The 95% confidence line is marked in gray. The main result is that 95% of the time, a new record will be seen within 8 years, but that for an unambiguous record, you need to wait for 18 years to have similar confidence. Image credit: Realclimate.org.

Is global warming slowing down?
The global average temperature has declined over the past three years (Figure 1) and global average sea surface temperature (SST) has not increased over the past seven years (Figure 3). Is global warming slowing down, then, and taking a break? That was the theory advanced by a group of German climate modelers (Keenlyside et al., 2008) in the journal Nature in 2008. Using a climate model that offered a unique way to handle the initial distribution of SSTs, they concluded that over the next ten years, natural variations in the climate may temporarily mask the global warming due to greenhouse gases. They stated: "North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming". However, they go on to state that greenhouse-gas driven global warming will resume full-force after the ten-year break is over. Other climate modelers disagree with this predicted "break" in global warming. Both theories are reasonable ones, and it is possible that the recent cool years portend the ten-year "break" from global warming hypothesized by Keenlyside et al. It is too early to tell, since the relative coolness of the past few years could easily be natural "noise" (weather) imposed on the long-term global warming trend. The fact that we've had a cold winter in eastern North America and in the UK--or any other anecdotal cold or snow-related record you may hear about--can't tell us whether global warming may be slowing down or not. The amount of global warming over the past century has only been about 1.3°F (0.74°C). Thus, it should not surprise us, for example, if temperatures during tonight's hard freeze in Florida bottom out at 25°F, instead of the 24°F it would have reached 100 years ago. The long-term ten and thirty year trends in global temperature are solidly upwards in accordance with global warming theory, and claims that the globe is cooling cannot be scientifically defended.

Figure 3. Global average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from 1990-2008. SSTs have not increased in the past seven years. Image credit: NASA/GISS.

References
Keenlyside, N.S., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner, 2008, "Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector", Nature 453, No. 7191, pp. 84-88, May 1, 2008

Further reading
2008 temperature summaries and spin by Gavin Schmidt of realclimate.org.

My next post will be on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Climate Change

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601. pangean 04:16 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
From the NYT's Dot Earth blog: "Richard Alley’s Orbital and Climate Dance" Link to the NYT article.

602. Skyepony (Mod) 04:35 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Absolutely beautiful out there today.. Here's more filling in the gaps of the maybees, released today. Here's another IPCC goof on the consevative side.. Anartica is acually depressed from the wieght of the ice it bears. The study quotes the '77 study but GRACE has confermed it & led to exact calculations. Also the ice is such a large body it has it's own gravitational pull~ pulling water to it. It's also so large with out it the south pole would shift ~1800'. IPCC took none of this into consideration with the last report & assummed the melt water woukd be evenly distributed. Which that's not how it is. ARTicle drawing these figures from.. & there's this from there too... If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet completely melted, the East Coast of North America would experience sea levels more than four feet higher than had been previously predicted – almost 21 feet – and the West Coast, as well as Miami, Fla., would be about a foot higher than that. Most of Europe would have seas about 18 feet higher. The Sea-Level Fingerprint of West Antarctic Collapse Jerry X. Mitrovica,1 Natalya Gomez,1 Peter U. Clark2 Recent projections of sea-level rise after a future collapse of theWest Antarctic Ice Sheet (for example, the Fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report) assume that meltwater will spread uniformly (that is, eustatically) across the oceans once marine-based sectors of the West Antarctic are filled. A largely neglected 1977 study predicted that peak values would be 20% higher than the eustatic in the North Pacific and 5 to 10% higher along the U.S. coastline. We show, with use of a state-of-the-art theory, that the sea-level rise in excess of the eustatic value will be two to three times higher than previously predicted for U.S. coastal sites. 1 Department of Physics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George Street, Toronto, ON M5S 1A7, Canada. 2 Department of Geo-sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA. Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29376

603. EmmyRose 04:37 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
THOSE IN TX W/A DISABILITY OR DIABETES: KATRINA STUDY Researchers at the Center for Disability and Development at Texas A&M University are conducting a study on the long-term recovery survivors from Hurricane Katrina who have diabetes or a disability. If selected, individuals will participate in either an interview, telephone survey, or a focus group and be eligible for up to $50.00 in compensation. Interested individuals or their guardians (if applicable) should contact the Texas A&M project using their toll free number at 1-866-578-4366. All calls will be confidential and consent procedures will be carefully followed with all potential participants. We are conducting a study on the long term recovery of survivors from Hurricane Katrina. We would like to ask your assistance in disseminating our project information below to groups and individuals who might be interested in participating. A flyer is also attached in the case you would like to post this information. Please contact Christy Knight, Data Coordinator, at Texas A&M University at cnknight@ag.tamu.edu if you have further questions or suggestions for other groups who we might be interested in disseminating information about this study. ********************************************************************** Principal Investigator: Laura M. Stough, PhD Department of Educational Psychology Member Since: Luglio 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments:** 76397

604. Ossqss 04:38 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
And now for somthing completely different Member Since: Giugno 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

605. pangean 04:46 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
re # 604: Wow, an hour and five minutes! That's a bit much. And only 4 stars at that. Any chance you've got a link to the highlight reel?

606. Inyo 04:52 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Gael sure is on an interesting track.. hopefully it turns out to be a fish storm from here on out Member Since: Settembre 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 765

607. Ossqss 04:56 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Quoting pangean: re # 604: Wow, an hour and five minutes! That's a bit much. And only 4 stars at that. Any chance you've got a link to the highlight reel? Try this for a short cut. Just a different view. Link Member Since: Giugno 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

608. surfmom 04:57 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Orca - your Avatar maybe a whale w/a Halo....but I'm thinking you're a Devil Dog!!! Things are warming up here in SWFL and I feel good Dada da da. Perhaps a whiff of Spring Fever in the air. Back to WorkLurk Member Since: Luglio 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

609. Ossqss 05:24 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Quoting pangean: re # 604: Wow, an hour and five minutes! That's a bit much. And only 4 stars at that. Any chance you've got a link to the highlight reel? This may be bette for you. The summary says it all. Link Member Since: Giugno 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

610. natrwalkn 05:36 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Any nor'easters brewing in the long-term forecast? Member Since: Agosto 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 67

611. Skyepony (Mod) 05:45 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Gael click the pic for a close up Visable loop Madagascar & Reunion getting TD force. MIMIC~ looks like it has finally began to turn & has weakened slightly to ~65kt & 977mb (ADT). Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29376

612. sullivanweather 06:05 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Quoting natrwalkn: Any nor'easters brewing in the long-term forecast? Perhaps around the 15th of the month. But right now the flow at that time is looking a bit too zonal for a true nor'easter. Most likely another Plains to central Appalachians to Delmarva storm. Member Since: Marzo 8, 2007 Posts: 269 Comments: 12491

613. Levi32 06:07 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Satellite/Microwave of Cyclone Gael (948mb 100kts Cat 3): ^Click to enlarge^ Gael has been fighting some light southwesterly shear and dry air, but the shear has weakened to under 5kts and he seems to be gradually mixing out the dry air. The core has improved in structure overnight, and microwave imagery show a nearly closed eyewall. The eye is still partially cloud-filled. A mid-latitude trough south of Madagascar is eroding the ridge south of Gael. In response Gael is turning poleward, and will stay a fish storm, with only his outer bands raking parts of Madagascar and the French island of La Reunion. This trough is also enhancing Gael's poleward outflow channel, which is playing a big part in aiding his current strengthening. Gael will steadily intensify over the next 24 hours, likely reaching minimal Cat 4 status. I don't believe that Cat 5 is possible. After 24 hours Gael will be moving into an area of lower ocean heat content south of 21S, and will level off in intensity and eventually begin to weaken as he phases with the trough to the south and encounters increasing wind shear. Enjoy watching this fish storm in action :) Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25462

614. SevereHurricane 06:14 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Gael is really winding up. Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

616. wxprof101 07:00 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Quoting GatorWX: Not sure anyone is here, but can anyone tell me what is on the Tampa radar in the bottom of the graphic? It shows precipitation, but there isn't actually any falling and the skies are completely clear. It seems to be more than just clutter. Temps are already in the mid 20's. Seems it'll be the coldest night so far, if not the entire winter. 33 just south of Venice. Just curious if anyone knew. Almost looks like ocean effect snow bands. Thanks Hey Gatorwx and Charlottefl! What you saw on the radar last nite is called chaff. I just replied to somebody else about the same thing yesterday, but was way late because I am a new user. Chaff is a radar countermeasure used by military aircraft to confuse enemy radars or radar-guided missiles. It consists of aluminum coated fiberglass released from the aircraft and reflects/scatters radar signals. This makes it show up on weather radars. It is often used here in Florida during training exercises, especially during clear weather. Here is a link to some notes Link I put together on the subject. The following images show the chaff drifting southward. First the radar was in "precip. mode," then it switched to "clear-air mode" which also shows ground clutter more strongly. But you are right, the ground clutter signature is different from the chaff. Hope this answers your question if you see it!

617. HadesGodWyvern 07:00 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Mauritius Meteorological Services CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GAEL (08-20082009) 19.2ºS 52.3ºE - 90 knots 941 hPa Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20 ============================= At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Gael (941 hPa) located at 19.2S 52.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 5 knots. Dvorak Intensity: T5.5 Hurricane-Force Winds =================== 20 NM from the center Storm-Force Winds ================== 40 NM radius of the center extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern semi-circle Gale-Force Winds ================== 100 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 NM in the eastern semi-circle Near Gale-Force Winds ====================== 150 NM radius from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the eastern and southern semi-circle Forecast and Intensity ======================= 12 HRS: 19.4S 52.1E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense) 24 HRS: 21.1S 52.0E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense) 48 HRS: 24.7S 53.5E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense) 72 HRS: 29.0S 56.2E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical) Additional Information ======================= Environment is becoming very favorable with good low level inflow and particularly with a very good poleward outflow within the next 12-24 hours with interaction with the northwesterly subtropical jet located south of Madagascar. Maximal intensity should be reached within the next 24 hours before reaching cooler sea surface temperatures and stronger northwesterly vertical wind shear starting Sunday night. GAEL tracks under the steering flow of an upper level ridge present in the southeast of the system. After tracking southward during the few hours, the system seems to track now south-southwest. It is expected to recurve once a more progressively towards the south tomorrow, then south-southeast on Sunday. Pre-Cyclone Alert (YELLOW ALERT) remains in effect for Réunion Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36691

618. HadesGodWyvern 07:01 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth Western Australia 110E-125E ================================= TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDDY (CAT 1) 15.6ºS 113.3ºE - 35 knots 990 hPa Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletin =============================== At 3:00 AM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Freddy, Category One (990 hPa) located at 15.6S 113.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 5 knots. Dvorak Intensity: T3.0 Gale-Force Winds ================= 45 NM of the center in eastern quadrants extending to within 120 NM of the center in western quadrants. Forecast and Intensity ===================== 12 HRS: 15.5S 112.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1) 24 HRS: 15.5S 111.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1) 48 HRS: 16.2S 108.0E - 45 knote (CAT 1) 72 HRS: 17.3S 103.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1) Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin ==================================== Tropical Cyclone Freddy has formed well to the north of the Western Australian mainland. The system is still under moderate to strong shear but has shown development over the past 6 hours. Dvorak DT 3.0 based on shear pattern with MET and FT 3.0. Model guidance is consistent with a general westward track over the next 24-48 hrs due to a persistent mid level ridge to the south. In the longer term Freddy is likely to take a more southwest track as a weakness develops in the ridge with a mid level trough approaching from the west. Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36691

619. Hierge 07:02 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Quoting GulfPoet: Taxation without representation: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080610154749.htm http://www.policyinnovations.org/ideas/briefings/data/cap_tax Google and research carbon cap and trade, as well as carbon tax schemes. The ultimate objective of the so-called AGW advocates is to CONTROL energy through capping the amount allowed by treaty and law, and taxing the beeejeeezus out of things they don't like, to force you to behave as they want you to. This is direct contrast to the market approach and direct investment for the common good in highly efficient alternatives such as Nuclear Power and others. If these advocates were asking for money to buy stock in alternative energy companies, auto manufacturing alternatives, and renewables such as wind, solar and tidal - then I might be interested in discussing SOLUTIONS with them. But when you actually do a little digging into this religion - you find that the HOLY GRAIL of all, the big mother load of their advocacy is TAX TAX TAX, and CAP CAP CAP, and CONTROL CONTROL CONTROL. That is why I believe they spend all their time and money on advocacy and propaganda than actual discussion about solutions. And quite frankly why this debate is useless. I was one of the organizers of the first Earth Day Celebrations in Washington DC with the National Association of Manufacturers and the Global Environment and Technology Foundation. Companies brought in their environmental technology for demonstration. Electric cars, environmental management systems, etc. This was back in the late 1990's. We got protested heavily as you can imagine including the hilarious "hippocritters" dressed as hippos. I requested a meeting with the leader of the environmental group leading the protest and I told him that this event was the direct result of their efforts. Industry had conceeded and was celebrating Earth Day too. He patted me on the back and said that it made him proud that we had put this event together. He said that they were simply protesting to raise money at the grass roots level, they needed a "bad guy" to raise money to continue. I swear this really happened. We both had a good laugh and the "hippocritters" came up for some free water bottles from the evil manufacturers. So, that pretty much says it people. This is about having a "bad guy" in order to continue to raise money for their causes. Global warming in my opinion is nothing more than a huge gravy train. Read the speech given by the Chaos theory expert character in the novel Jurassic Park. He found it laughable that man could destroy life on earth as offered by the misguided billionaire who unleashed the genetically modified dinosaurs and made the Velociraptor one of the most feared creatures of all time. Theories like this can be traced directly to the first pictures of the Earth taken during the Apollo missions to the moon. Before that, we had Chicken Little.

620. HadesGodWyvern 07:09 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
has forgotten what the status has to be until Reunion issues a Cyclone Watch for the island... Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36691

621. Patrap 07:12 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Theories like this can be traced directly to the first pictures of the Earth taken during the Apollo missions to the moon. Before that, we had Chicken Little. "Your right Jim,..the Blogs do look smaller from up here.." Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111641

622. Aloysius 07:28 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Quoting sullivanweather: Perhaps around the 15th of the month. But right now the flow at that time is looking a bit too zonal for a true nor'easter. Most likely another Plains to central Appalachians to Delmarva storm. Here is weather forcasting the old way - in the 40 years I have lived outside Washington DC the most likely time frame for a really good snow storm has been around the President's Birthdays, or so it seems. This time I will stock up more carefully on such essentials as cat food, chocolate etc!!! Member Since: novembre 26, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 393

623. all4hurricanes 07:54 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Another one skips cat 2 status Member Since: Marzo 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2192

624. Seastep 08:05 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
I'll bite. Quoting mglennon: One thing I find interesting; the predicted and measured surface temperatures seem to match pretty well (see fig. 1). All in all, my opinion is that this paper doesn't really put all that big a dent in the credibility of the IPCC models. Take a look at the figure again. It starts to go bad, real bad around 2005. OK when then models are predicting 0-.1 per decade. And even then, it is way off as of now. Going forward, it gets even steeper, real steep in comparison to that graph. If you extend it out to the right, observations are going to have take a real, real sharp rise to just keep up (i.e., stay the same difference as right now), let alone catch up to that increasingly steeper model line. We'll have to see over the next 5-10 years, but I just don't see it happening. By 2020, that model line is almost all the way up at the top of the graph on that scale.... and only gets steeper after that. Member Since: Settembre 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

625. HadesGodWyvern 08:06 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
05/02/2009 18:00 55.09 18.23 4.5 CYCLONE tropical 970 65 kt, 120 km/h 91 kt, 169 km/h 06/02/2009 00:00 54.30 18.50 4.5 CYCLONE tropical 960 70 kt, 129 km/h 98 kt, 182 km/h 06/02/2009 06:00 53.10 18.40 5.0 CYCLONE tropical 955 75 kt, 138 km/h 105 kt, 195 km/h 06/02/2009 12:00 52.50 18.60 5.5 CYCLONE tropical 950 85 kt, 157 km/h 119 kt, 221 km/h 06/02/2009 18:00 52.30 19.20 5.5 CYCLONE tropical INTENSE 941 90 kt, 166 km/h 126 kt, 221 km/h All4Hurricanes: didn't skip too badly it gradually intesified in the last few advisories.. the pressure sure did drop a good 30 MB in the last 24 hours. Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36691

626. Seastep 08:15 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Wow, Gael is packing some punch and hardly moving. What are the sst's there? Member Since: Settembre 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

627. all4hurricanes 08:16 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
625 ok not skip cat two but skips a cat 2 advisory like Bertha Ike Gustav Omar Fanele etc. Member Since: Marzo 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2192

628. Seastep 08:17 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Also, the clockwise spin always freaks me out. I feel like I'm in the twilight zone when I watch that sat. Member Since: Settembre 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

629. HadesGodWyvern 08:18 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Pressure/10min winds//Safir-Simpson Scale 970 65 kt [SSHS-Cat1] 960 70 kt [SSHS-Cat1] 955 75 kt [SSHS-Cat2] 950 85 kt [SSHS-Cat3] 941 90 kt [SSHS-Cat3] Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36691

630. HadesGodWyvern 08:20 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Sea Surface Temperatures according to CMC is 29-30C. Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36691

631. pangean 08:21 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Quoting Seastep: I'll bite. Take a look at the figure again. It starts to go bad, real bad around 2005. OK when then models are predicting 0-.1 per decade. And even then, it is way off as of now. Going forward, it gets even steeper, real steep in comparison to that graph. If you extend it out to the right, observations are going to have take a real, real sharp rise to just keep up (i.e., stay the same difference as right now), let alone catch up to that increasingly steeper model line. We'll have to see over the next 5-10 years, but I just don't see it happening. By 2020, that model line is almost all the way up at the top of the graph on that scale.... and only gets steeper after that. Seastep, I was referring to figure 1 in the paper by Douglass et.al. link

632. Seastep 08:23 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Thanks. Member Since: Settembre 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

633. HadesGodWyvern 08:28 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Gael is suppose to get close to 115 knots (135 knots-1 minute winds) Meteo France forecast 10 minute sustained winds maximum for the cyclone at 110 knots (130 knots-1 minute winds) Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36691

634. Seastep 08:32 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Quoting pangean: Seastep, I was referring to figure 1 in the paper by Douglass et.al. link Apologies for the misunderstanding. Member Since: Settembre 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

635. Seastep 08:45 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Question if anyone can answer. Do they have any models that project based on just climate patterns and exclude GHG? Or, maybe the existing models, but subtracting any MM C02 from the total CO2 in the atmosphere? i.e., just run with natural CO2 level data only. Would be interesting to see that compared to observed. Member Since: Settembre 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

636. Seastep 08:51 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
skyepony - "looks like it has finally began to turn" Looks to be heading WSW now. Link Member Since: Settembre 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

637. natrwalkn 09:08 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Quoting sullivanweather: Perhaps around the 15th of the month. But right now the flow at that time is looking a bit too zonal for a true nor'easter. Most likely another Plains to central Appalachians to Delmarva storm. Ok, thanks. I'm hoping for a good rainy, windy, coastal storm here on the Carolina coast, but I guess I'll just have to wait and see what March has to offer. Member Since: Agosto 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 67

638. AngelLingl9 09:54 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Hi, I just read that the northern gulf is at a high risk for being hit by a hurricane this year. I live in Mississippi, can any one give me some more information on this.

640. Levi32 10:00 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Gael's 6-hour motion is SSW. Gael is naturally slowing down as all tropical cyclones do when encountering a mid-latitude trough. The steering currents are weak right now because the trough has eroded the ridge, but Gael hasn't been caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies yet. He will maintain slow movement until he makes the full turn and then will speed up again, at which time he will be weakening. Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25462

641. Levi32 10:03 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Gael is over SSTs of 29C at the moment. Within 24 hours when he passes south of 21S he will enter an area of lower ocean heat content and SSTs of 27-28C, along with increased wind shear from the trough. This is when he will begin to weaken. He should reach peak intensity sometime tonight. Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25462

642. Patrap 10:04 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111641

643. Patrap 10:05 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111641

644. Patrap 10:07 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Preparation is the Key to being ready come June 1. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111641

645. Skyepony (Mod) 10:11 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Wow~ Gael has intensified since the last time I looked at, near 5 hours ago.. now it's~ 936.9mb/107.2kt (ADT). Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29376

646. Levi32 10:14 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Skye - I wondered where you were getting the 65-knot 977mb from earlier lol. Gael was at 100kts 948mb at that time per the 12z update. If you got it from the MIMIC or Dvorak then I think it was way off. Gael looked a lot stronger than Cat 1 5 hours ago. Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25462

647. Patrap 10:18 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Coastal Risk Link Download our Coastal Storm Surge White Paper In a recent report published by the Special Projects Office of NOAA's National Ocean Service that updates an earlier version, it is projected that by year 2008, coastal county population is expected to increase by approximately 7 million. To reduce potential lawsuits and risk from hurricane driven water, insurance companies have implemented moratoriums on new policies based on distance from coast or a combination of distance from coast and elevation. While such practices have been widely accepted in the past, it's clear based on Proxix's analysis, that these methods are no longer practial. • Insurance companies are under estimating their risks in certain geographies where surge risk is well beyond the buffer; and • Significant revenues are being lost in exclusionary zones with no likelihood of inundation from storm surge. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111641

648. atmoaggie 11:37 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Quoting Patrap: Pat, what article in the T-P goes with that? I cannot remember how those chances are justified...seems to be a bit of odd probabilities. Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

649. hydrus 11:40 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
PATRAP-Help me on this one if you can,where and how high was the highest storm surge in Hurricane Katrina. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14315

650. Levi32 11:53 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
Google earth view from Toamasina, Madagascar looking towards the eye of Cyclone Gael to the southeast. Toamasina and other parts of the east coast of Madagascar are getting 20-30mph winds from the outer bands of Gael. ^click to enlarge^ Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25462

651. Patrap 11:56 PM GMT del 06 Febbraio 2009
I believe,..and I'll check,but the Highest Surge Value height during Katrina was Waveland Mississippi,28.5-30 feet by 2 water marks that I know of. Early on the landfall morning..I suspect around 9am.. Landfall Local Radar Loop,..Katrina Link Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111641

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