Tropical Storm Ana
Ana was born overnight thanks to a burst of convection from ex-TD2 which regenerated. Right now its not looking all that healthy with some shear effecting it, causing the COC to be exposed. It could overnight get into a lower shear environment and as it hits the higher area of TCHP strengthen quite quickly if it even survives the day of course.
Tropical Depression Three
90L finally became a Tropical Depression overnight and satellite images indicating it has a great structure and is well on the way to become Tropical Storm Bill by 11 PM EDT tonight. Convection is fading over the COC, as Durinal Minimum closes in on the system and some dry air entering the system but its likely that it will filter out tonight and become Bill by at least 11 AM tomorrow.
The computer models are somewhat close, but I doubt that we'll see TD3 by then Bill curve out to sea because for one its moving at quite a quick pace and if its going to curve out to sea it might want to slow down to about 10 mph instead of its near 20 Mph forward speed. I don't think that will happen, instead I think it will go directly into or north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as a Strong Category 2 or a weak Category 3 hurricane as indicated by the intensity models and the National Hurricane Center. This track is similar to Hurricane Georges in 1998 but the formation, location, intensity models and forcast is remarkably similar to that of Hurricane Dean in 2007.
Right now it is to early to judge were TD3 is going to go, all bets are off past 3 days in my opinion. The important thing is that you should have been prepared by June 1st.
I'll have another update tomorrow Afternoon.
