November 1, 2011 - December 31, 2011

By: HadesGodWyvern , 11:26 PM GMT del 31 Ottobre 2011

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Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November

TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1004 hPa
JTWC25W - 1000 hPa

December

TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1004 hPa
T201121.Washi/Sendong - 996 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1004 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1008 hPa


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Northeast Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: RSMC Miami - National Hurricane Center

National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
EP132011.Kenneth - 943 hPa

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North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
ARB02.Keila - 996 hPa
ARB03.NONAME - 1000 hPa
ARB04.NONAME - 998 hPa

December
BOB05.Thane - 976 hPa

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=======================
Southeastern Pacific Ocean
=======================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Nadi Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
01F.NONAME - 1004 hPa

December

02F.NONAME - 1002 hPa

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==========================
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
---------------------------------------

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

December

02U.Fina - 995 hPa
04U.Grant - 978 hPa


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==========================
Southeastern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
---------------------------------------------

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

December

01U(01R).Alenga - 968 hPa (moved east of 90E)
03U.NONAME - xx hPa

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==========================
Southwestern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Mauritius Meteorological Services
Seychelles Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

December

01R.Alenga - 982 hPa
02R.NONAME - 998 hPa
03R.NONAME - 1000 hPa
04R.Benilde - 968 hPa

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410. HadesGodWyvern
07:46 PM GMT del 31 Dicembre 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
CYCLONE TROPICAL BENILDE (04-20112012)
22:00 PM RET December 31 2011
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Benilde (968 hPa) located at 16.0S 75.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/S.0.0/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
35 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 80 NM from the center in the northwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
110 NM radius from the center extending up to 160-180 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 17.0S 75.1E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 17.9S 74.7E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 19.4S 74.1E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 19.6E 73.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempete Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

For the last 6 hours, system intensity is stationary. Present intensity analysis at 80 kt is based on manual Dvorak estimate with an average DT number at 5.1 for a 3 hours and 6 hours average. Since 1400 PM UTC, ADT is between 5.1 and 5.5. A mid level ridge, located to the east of the system, is steering the system on a south-westward then south-southwestward track towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge. However, Benilde should not have the time to move out of the tropical area in this weakness. All available guidance suggest that the meridian track should stop between monday morning and tuesday morning as a low to mid-level ridge should build from the southwest.

It remains some uncertainty about the exact track of the system at this time range of the forecast track, but latest numerical outputs depict a slower motion and a westward to north-westward recurvature. The official current track forecast reflects this scenario. Environmental conditions are good with a weak north-easterly windshear (10 kt according shear CIMSS analysis), excellent divergence aloft depicted by a very well cirrus outflow and warm sea surface temperatures in the 28C range. On its meridian track, Benilde should gradually encounter cooler sst and stronger westerly windshear. After a maximum that should be reached within the next 24 hours, system intensity should weaken.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
409. HadesGodWyvern
02:51 PM GMT del 31 Dicembre 2011
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
18:00 PM FST December 31 2011
==========================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1004 hPa) located at 21.0S 157.0W is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization has not improved significantly and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 700 HPA. The system lies under an upper diffluent region and highly sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastward with little intensification.

Potential for this tropical depression to develop into a tropical cyclone is the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
408. HadesGodWyvern
02:49 PM GMT del 31 Dicembre 2011
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM JST December 31 2011
===============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 5.0N 104.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
407. HadesGodWyvern
02:37 PM GMT del 31 Dicembre 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
CYCLONE TROPICAL BENILDE (04-20112012)
16:00 PM RET December 31 2011
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Benilde (968 hPa) located at 15.4S 76.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
35 NM radius from the center


Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 80 NM from the center in the northwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
110 NM radius from the center extending up to 160-180 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 16.2S 75.4E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 17.2S 75.0E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 19.2S 74.2E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 19.6E 73.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempete Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Eye pattern is still going on. After an excellent presentation between 730 - 830 AM UTC with a raw T number at 6.0, the cloud pattern slightly since that time with a slightly less defined eye. Present intensity analysis at 80 knots is based on manual Dvorak estimate with an average DT number at 5.2 for a 3-6 hours average on line with estimates from PGTW and KNES. ADT is too low at 4.1 at 1130 UTC (CI). However, from time to time the eye is well seen and raw T number topped around 5.5 (6.1 at 1100 AM UTC). A mid level ridge, located to the east of the system, is steering the system gradually on a poleward track towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge. However, Benilde should not have the time to move out of the tropical area in this weakness. All available guidance suggest that the poleward track should stop between Monday morning and Tuesday morning as a low to mid level ridge should build from the southwest, It remains some uncertainity from this time range of the forecast track, but latest numerical outputs depict a slower motion and a westward to northwestward turn. This is reflected in the current track forecast. Environmental conditions are good with a low shear (3.6 m/s from east northeast according shear and alysis), excellent divergence aloft depicted by a very nice cirrus outflow and warm sea surface temperature in the 28C range. On its poleward track, Benilde should gradually encounter cooler sea surface temperatures and stronger westerly shear. After a max intensity that should be reached within the next 24 hours, the system should weaken.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
406. HadesGodWyvern
02:18 PM GMT del 31 Dicembre 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONE TROPICAL BENILDE (04-20112012)
10:00 AM RET December 31 2011
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Benilde (973 hPa) located at 14.8S 76.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
20 NM radius from the center


Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
70 nm radius from the center extending up to 80 NM from the center in the northwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle


Near Gale Force Winds
======================
100 NM radius from the center extending up to 150 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 15.6S 75.7E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 16.5S 74.2E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 18.5S 74.6E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 19.3E 73.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempete Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Benilde shows now a 40 NM wide eye that tends to become more circular on the last infrared imagery. Present intensity analysis is based on manual Dvorak estimate with an average DT number at 4.8 and 4.7 respectively for a 3-6 hours average. ADT is at 4.5 (CI) but seems to struggle to find the center. Latest determinisitic numerical weather prediction models remain globally in good agreement to forecast a southward track within the next 48 hours under the combined steering influence of a mid-level ridge existing east of the system and a polar trough transiting in the south.

Multi-ensemble numerical weather prediction modes (EPS, GEFS, and PEARP) plumes show low dispersion at short range and converge also to this scenario. For the next 48-60 hours, RSMC forecast track remains close to an average between ECMWF, NOGAPS, and ARPEGE. Beyond that time, a mid level ridge is rebuilding in the southwest and should force Benilde to slow down its southwestward track. It should then make a loop right hand before evacuating towards the southeast in the wake of the polar trough. Within this slowdown and recurve motion, system is expected to rapidly weaken over marginal heat oceanic content south of 20.0S and strengthen westerly wind shear. Multi-emsemble suggest more dispersion between the members at this time range of the forecast.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
405. HadesGodWyvern
04:52 AM GMT del 31 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER THANE (BOB05-2011)
5:30 AM IST December 31 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Depression Weakened Into Well Marked Low Pressure Area

At 0:00 AM UTC, The depression over north Tamil Nadu close to Salem moved westwards and weakened further into well marked low pressure area over north Kerala and neighborhood.

This is the last bulletin for 'THANE'
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
404. HadesGodWyvern
12:53 AM GMT del 31 Dicembre 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
CYCLONE TROPICAL BENILDE (04-20112012)
4:00 AM RET December 31 2011
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Benilde (980 hPa) located at 14.3S 77.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 140 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
100 NM from the center extending up to 230 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 15.2S 76.2E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 16.0S 75.5E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 18.1S 74.9E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 19.2S 74.3E - 75 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

Benilde keeps on intensifying and shows now an eye on METEOSAT 7 infrared imagery. Deterministic numerical weather prediction models are globally in good agreement to forecast a southwestward track within the next 60 hours under the combined steering influence of a mid-level ridge existing east of the system and a polar trough transiting in the south.

Multi-ensemble numerical weather prediction models (EPS, GFS, and PEARP) plumes show low dispersion at short range and converge also to this scenario. Some deterministic numerical weather prediction models however suggest different options, GFDN forecast a more zonal track and UKMO forecast a clearly southeastward recurve track and after 24-36 hours. For the next 72 hours, RSMC forecast track remains close to an average between ECMWF, NOGAPS, and APEGE. On and after 72 hours, A mid-level ridge is rebuilding in the southwest and should force Benilde to slow down its southwestward track. It should then make a loop right-hand before evacuating towards the southeast in the wake of the polar trough.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
403. HadesGodWyvern
11:29 PM GMT del 30 Dicembre 2011
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
9:00 AM FST December 31 2011
================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1005 hPa) located at 21.0S 157.0W is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on visible and multispectral infrared. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization has not improved significantly and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 700 HPA. The system lies under an upper diffluent region and highly sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastward with little intensification.

Potential for this tropical depression to develop into a tropical cyclone is the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
402. HadesGodWyvern
07:04 PM GMT del 30 Dicembre 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE BENILDE (04-20112012)
22:00 PM RET December 30 2011
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Benilde (984 hPa) located at 13.8S 77.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center extending up to 140 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM from the center extending up to 230 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 14.6S 76.4E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 15.5S 75.3E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 17.9S 74.2E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 20.2S 72.9E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

Benilde intensifies again and shows temporarily an eye on METEOSAT 7 infrared imagery from 1500z to 1630z. Instantaneous Dvorak analysis has consequently fluctuated within the last 6 hours and mentioned intensity for this fix is an average over this period. Wind extension has been recalibrated thanks to 1645z ASCAT swath. Deterministic numerical weather prediction models are globally in good agreement to forecast a southwestward track within the next 72 hours under the combined steering influence of a mid level ridge existing east of the system and polar trough transiting in the south. Multi-ensembled numerical weather prediction models (EPS, GEFS and PEARP) plumes show low dispersion and converge also to this scenario. There is some discrepencies about chronology between deterministic numerical weather prediction models. ECMWF one is faster than ARPEGE, GFS and the American consensus ones.

Beyond 72 hours, system is expected to rapidly weaken over marginal heat oceanic content south of 20.0S and strengthening westerly wind shear. Multi-ensemble suggest then more dispersion between the members.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
401. HadesGodWyvern
05:44 PM GMT del 30 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #36
DEPRESSION, FORMER THANE (BOB05-2011)
17:30 PM IST December 30 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over North Tamil Nadu.

At 12:00 PM UTC, The deep depression moved west- southwestward weakened into a depression. Depression, Former Thane lays centered over north Tamil Nadu close to Salem.

The system is likely to move westwards and weaken further into a low pressure area during next 12 hours.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
400. HadesGodWyvern
05:42 PM GMT del 30 Dicembre 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE BENILDE (04-20112012)
16:00 PM RET December 30 2011
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Benilde (984 hPa) located at 13.4S 78.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center extending up to 35 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM from the center extending up to 150 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 300 NM in the southeastern quadrant with gradient effect

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 14.0S 77.3E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.3S 76.5E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 17.3S 75.1E - 85 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 19.6S 74.0E - 75 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

Benilde has globally weakened for the last 6 hours. Close to the center, convection is fluctuating and less organized. Within the next 72 hours, Available numerical weather prediction models are in goo agreement to forecast a southwestward track under the combined effects of a forecast weakness in the low level subtropical high pressure (in relationship with a transiting polar trough), and of the steering influence of a ridge existing east of the system in mid-levels. Divergences exist on the expected speed of the system. ECMWF is faster than ARPEGE and American consensus. On this track, system remains on the western edge of high-level high pressures located in the east with persistent moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear. Due to faster speed, ECMWF does not seem consider this wind shear and notable deepens the system up Monday. So uncertainty is significant for maximum system intensity. Beyond 72 hours, system is expected to rapidly weaken by reaching seas with marginal heat oceanic content south of 20.0S and strong westerly wind shear.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
399. HadesGodWyvern
09:17 AM GMT del 30 Dicembre 2011
ndia Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER THANE (BOB05-2011)
11:30 AM IST December 30 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Severe Cyclonic Storm 'THANE' Weakened Rapidly Into A Deep Depression

At 6:00 AM UTC, The severe cyclonic storm over north Tamil Nadu near Cuddalore moved further westward and weakened rapidly into a deep depression. Deep Depression, Former Thane lays centered near 11.8N 79.0E, about 100 Km west of Cuddalore.

The system is likely to move westwards and weaken further.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

6 HRS: 11.8N 78.3E - 25 knots (Depression)
12 HRS: 11.8N 77.6E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
398. HadesGodWyvern
09:04 AM GMT del 30 Dicembre 2011
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
18:00 PM FST December 30 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1002 hPa) located at 20.0S 160.0W is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization has not improved significantly and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 700 HPA. The system lies under and upper diffluent region and highly sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastward with little intensification.

The potential for this tropical depression to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
397. HadesGodWyvern
07:35 AM GMT del 30 Dicembre 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE BENILDE (04-20112012)
10:00 AM RET December 30 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Benilde (984 hPa) located at 13.2S 79.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
=================
35 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM from the center extending up to 130 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 14.0S 78.0E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.4S 76.9E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 17.9S 75.4E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 19.4S 74.4E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

The system has been relocated more towards the north relative to 00:00 AM UTC point. It continues to intensify for the last 6 hours. Latest visible satellite imagery shows a ragged eye and convection wrapping 1 lap around the center.

Most of available numerical weather prediction models forecast a westward then southwestward track under the combined effects of a forecast weakness in the low level subtropical high pressure (in relationship with a transiting polar trough), and the steering influence of a building ridge east of the system in the mid-levels. On this track, environmental conditions are favorable for a regular intensification. Low level inflows are good poleward and equatorward. Trough 48 hours, system will approach the axis of the upper level ridge near 17.0N and as a good upper level outflow channel is expected to build aloft poleward. So, maximum intensity should occur Sunday. Beyond 84 hours, system is expected to reach seas with marginal heat oceanic content south of 20.0N and begin to weaken.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
396. HadesGodWyvern
05:17 AM GMT del 30 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #34
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
8:30 AM IST December 30 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Crossed coast.

At 3:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further westward and crossed north Tamil Nadu coast between Cuddalore and Puducherry at around 0630 and 0730 AM IST (1:00 and 2:00 AM UTC). It then continued to move westwards and weakened into a severe cyclonic storm. Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane lays centered near 11.8N 79.5E about 30 Km west of Cuddalore and 35 Km southwest of Puducherry.

The system is likely to move westwards and weaken further.

The maximum gale wind speed of 65-75 knots has been reported over Puducherry and Cuddalore observatories of IMD.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
395. HadesGodWyvern
02:38 AM GMT del 30 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
5:30 AM IST December 30 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal Close To Puducherry

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 0:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further westward and lays at centered near 11.8N 79.9E, very close to southeast of Puducherry.

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast close to south of Puducherry within a few hours and weaken gradually.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -72C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 10.5N to 13.5N and west of 80.5E. The convection is showing signs of weakening due to interaction with land surface.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1.0-1.5 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Puducherry and Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

POST LANDFALL OUTLOOK
======================

Even after landfall the system is likely to maintain its intensity for 12 hours and weaken gradually. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy fall is likely to continue over north Tamil Nadu and Pudducherry during next 24 hours after landfall causing inundation of low lying areas. Gale/squally wind speed reaching 45-50 knots gusting to 55 knots causing damage to thatched roofs and huts breaking of tree branches causing minor damage to power and communication lines over north Tamil Nadu and Pudducherry during 12 hours after the landfall. People are advised to remain indoor/safe place and cooperate with state Govt. officials and disaster management agencies.

Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
394. HadesGodWyvern
01:21 AM GMT del 30 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
2:30 AM IST December 30 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 21:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays at centered near 11.8N 80.3E, about 50 km east of Puducherry and 125 km south of Chennai (Tamil Nadu).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast close to south of Puducherry within a few hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -74C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 10.0N to 13.0N and west of 81.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1.0-1.5 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Puducherry and Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

POST LANDFALL OUTLOOK
======================

Even after landfall the system is likely to maintain its intensity for 12 hours and weaken gradually. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy fall is likely to continue over north Tamil Nadu and Pudducherry during next 24 hours after landfall causing inundation of low lying areas. Gale/squally wind speed reaching 40-50 knots gusting to 55 knots causing damage to thatched roofs and huts breaking of tree branches causing minor damage to power and communication lines over north Tamil Nadu and Pudducherry during 12 hours after the landfall. People are advised to remain indoor/safe place and cooperate with state Govt. officials and disaster management agencies.


Forecast and Intensity
========================

3 HRS: 11.8N 79.9E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
9 HRS: 11.8N 79.2E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
33 HRS: 11.8N 77.0E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
393. HadesGodWyvern
01:11 AM GMT del 30 Dicembre 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BENILDE (04-20112012)
4:00 AM RET December 30 2011
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Benilde (991 hPa) located at 13.7S 81.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 14.5S 79.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.4S 78.0E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 17.1S 76.0E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 19.1S 74.3E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

Convection has structured over the low level circulation center within the last 6 hours. Low level inflow is good poleward on both sides. Upper level divergence is improving, specially poleward.

Though after 48 hours, system is forecast to intensify regularly as it will approach the axis of the upper level ridge near 17.0S, and as a good upper level outflow channel is forecast to build aloft poleward. The maximum of intensity should occur on Sunday, January 1st, when the system is forecast to be in phase with the upper level ridge. Beyond 96 hours, system is forecast to reach seas with marginal heat oceanic content south of 20.0S.

Most of available numerical weather prediction models forecast a southwestward track under the combined effects of a forecast weakness in the low level subtropical high pressures (in relationship with a transiting polar trough), and the steering influence of a building ridge east of the system in the mid-levels.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
392. HadesGodWyvern
12:00 AM GMT del 30 Dicembre 2011
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
9:00 AM FST December 30 2011
===================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depresssion 02F (1002 hPa) located at 20.5S 163.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on visible and multispectral infrared. Sea surface temperature is 29C.

Organization has not improved significantly and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 700 hPA. The system lies under an upper diffluent region and highly sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastward with little intensification.

Potential for this tropical depression to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
391. HadesGodWyvern
09:34 PM GMT del 29 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
23:30 PM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 18:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays at centered near 12.0N 80.6E, about 90 km east of Puducherry, 125 km south-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 380 km northwest of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast close to Puducherry around early this morning.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 10.5N to 14.0N and west of 81.5E. The eye temperature is -50C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1.0-1.5 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Puducherry and Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

POST LANDFALL OUTLOOK
======================

Even after landfall the system is likely to maintain its intensity for 12 hours and weaken gradually. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy fall is likely to continue over north Tamil Nadu and Pudducherry during next 24 hours after landfall causing inundation of low lying areas. Gale/squally wind speed reaching 45-50 knots gusting to 55 knots causing damage to thatched roofs and huts breaking of tree branches causing minor damage to power and communication lines over north Tamil Nadu and Pudducherry during 12 hours after the landfall. People are advised to remain indoor/safe place and cooperate with state Govt. officials and disaster management agencies.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

6 HRS: 12.0N 79.9E - 60-65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.0N 79.2E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.0N 77.0E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
390. HadesGodWyvern
08:34 PM GMT del 29 Dicembre 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BENILDE (04-20112012)
22:00 PM RET December 29 2011
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Benilde (996 hPa) located at 13.7S 82.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM radius from the center extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
60 NM radius from the center and 90 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle and should very locally extend to 200 NM in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 14.3S 80.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 15.2S 78.9E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 16.8S 76.7E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.8S 75.3E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

Last infrared animated pictures show a good consolidation of the deep convection near the low level center. System has been named "Benilde" at 18:00 PM UTC by Mauritius Meteorological Services.

Easterly wind shear is relaxing (confirmed by CIMSS analysis at 15:00 UTC). Low level inflow is good poleward on the two sides. System is expected to keep on intensifying slowly on Friday then more clearly on and after Saturday as it will track under the upper level ridge and as two upper level outflow channels will build aloft on the both sides in the same time. It is expected to reach its maximum of intensity on Monday before undergoing an upper level constraint (west northwesterly wind shear) and over less heat oceanic content. Available numerical weather prediction models keep on being in good agreement fore a west southwestward track over the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures within low levels and mid-levels, then more southwestward to south southwestward track under the combined effects of a forecast weakness in the low-level subtropical high pressures (in relationship with a transiting polar trough), and of the steering influence of a building ridge east of the system in the mid-levels.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
389. HadesGodWyvern
08:15 PM GMT del 29 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
20:30 PM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 15:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays centered near 12.0N 81.0E, about 130 km east of Puducherry, 150 km southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 375 km north of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around early tomorrow morning

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 10.5N to 13.5N and west of 83.0E. The eye temperature is -50C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1.0-1.5 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Puducherry and Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
388. HadesGodWyvern
08:13 PM GMT del 29 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
17:30 PM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 12:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays centered near 12.0N 81.3E, about 160 km east of Puducherry, 160 km southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 380 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around early tomorrow morning

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -83C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 15.5N and west of 84.0E. The eye temperature is -63C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1.0-1.5 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Puducherry and Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

6 HRS: 12.0N 80.6E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.0N 79.9E - 60-65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.0N 77.0E - 25 knots (Depression)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
387. HadesGodWyvern
03:05 PM GMT del 29 Dicembre 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20112012
16:00 PM RET December 29 2011
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 04 (999 hPa) located at 12.9S 84.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center and 60 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle and should very locally extend to 180 NM in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 13.3S 82.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 13.8S 80.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 15.4S 77.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 17.3S 76.0E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

Since few hours, convective activity has been consolidating near the low level center but remains currently fluctuating. Recent satellite imagery (METEOSAT7 and SSMI F15, 1103 UTC) don't show continuous band wrapping more than .30 around the center. Easterly wind shear begins to relax. Equatorial westerlies are no longer mainly feeding the northern hemisphere system in the Bay of Bengal (THANE) and is becoming more direct towards Tropical Depression Number 4. It is expected to keep on improving within the next days on this equator side. Low level inflow is good poleward. System is expected to keep on intensifying slowly on Friday then more clearly on and after Saturday as it tracks under the upper level ridge and as two upper level outflow channels build aloft on the both sides in the same time. It is expected to reach maximum of intensity on Monday before undergoing back an upper level constraint (west northwesterly wind shear) over less heat oceanic content.

Available numerical weather prediction models keep on being in good agreement for a west southwestward track over the northern edge of the subtropical high pressure within low level and mid-levels, then more southwestwards track under the combined effects of a forecast weakness in the low-level subtropical high pressures (in relationship with a transition polar trough), and of the steering influence of a building ridge east of the system in the mid-levels.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Depression 04 will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
386. HadesGodWyvern
02:50 PM GMT del 29 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #28
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
14:30 PM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 9:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal slightly moved westward and lays centered near 12.0N 81.7E, about 180 km east of Puducherry, 180 km southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 400 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around early Friday morning

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -83C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 15.0N and west of 84.0E. The imagery shows irregular eye pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1.0-1.5 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Puducherry and Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
385. HadesGodWyvern
09:27 AM GMT del 29 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
11:30 AM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 6:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays centered near 12.0N 82.0E, about 220 km east of Puducherry, 200 km southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 400 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around early morning of 30th December 2011.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -83C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 14.5N and west of 84.5E. The imagery shows irregular eye pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Chennai and Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

6 HRS: 12.0N 81.3E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.0N 80.6E - 65-70 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.0N 77.8E - 30-35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.0N 75.0E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
384. HadesGodWyvern
09:03 AM GMT del 29 Dicembre 2011
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F
18:00 PM FST December 29 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1002 hPa) located at 20.0S 155.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared. Sea surface temperature is 29C.

Organization has not improved significantly and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 700 HPa. The system lies under an upper diffluent region and highly sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastward with little intensification.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
383. HadesGodWyvern
07:04 AM GMT del 29 Dicembre 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20112012
10:00 AM RET December 29 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04 (999 hPa) located at 12.8S 85.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/12 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
80 NM radius from the center extending up to 220 Nm in the western semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 13.0S 82.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 13.3S 80.7E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 14.7S 78.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 16.8S 75.8E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

System keeps on undergoing an easterly vertical wind shear constraint on the northwestern edge of the upper level ridge. The low level circulation is partially exposed east of the main deep convective activity.

Low level inflow is good poleward ET is currently improving equatorward. Equatorial westerlies are no long mainly feeding the northern hemisphere system in the Bay of Bengal (THANE) and is becoming more direct towards Tropical Depression Number 4. It is expected to keep on improving within the next days on this equator side.

Vertical wind shear is expected to progressively relax and environmental conditions are expected to consequently become more favorable for further intensification on and after Saturday as two upper level outflow channels build aloft on the both side in the same time.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a westward track over the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures within low levels and mid-levels, then more southwestward track under the combined effects of a forecast weakness in the low-level subtropical high pressures (in relationship with a transiting polar through), and of the steering influence of a building ridge east of the system in the mid-levels.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Depression 04 will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
382. HadesGodWyvern
06:51 AM GMT del 29 Dicembre 2011
At 4 pm EST, Low, Former Grant was located over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria or 140 km west southwest of Cape Keer-Weer and about 270 km north northeast of Mornington Island.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant is expected to continue moving east and cross the west coast of Cape York Peninsula as a monsoon low near Cape Keer-Weer in the early hours of Friday.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
381. HadesGodWyvern
06:35 AM GMT del 29 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
8:30 AM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 3:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-southwestward and lays centered near 12.0N 82.5E, about 270 km east of Puducherry, 250 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 420 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around early Friday morning.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -84C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 14.0N and west of 84.5E. The imagery shows irregular eye pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Chennai and Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

3 HRS: 12.0N 82.0E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
9 HRS: 12.0N 81.3E - 65-70 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
33 HRS: 12.0N 78.5E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
57 HRS: 12.0N 75.7E - 25 knots (Depression)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
380. HadesGodWyvern
04:30 AM GMT del 29 Dicembre 2011
uh-oh.. the Dvorak number went up to 4.5 on the iMD satellite imagery. =/



© India Meteorological Department
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
379. HadesGodWyvern
03:52 AM GMT del 29 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
5:30 AM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 0:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-southwestward and lays centered near 12.3N 83.0E, about 300 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 480 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around Friday morning. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -86C. Associated intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 13.5N and west of 84.5E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The central pressure of the system is at 980 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Chennai and Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

The system is being tracked by DWR Chennai since 1000 UTC, yesterday. Hence determinaton of location and intensity is of high confidential.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 27-28C over the region. It is relatively less towards Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coast becoming 26-27C. The ocean thermal energy is less than 50 kj/cm2 around the system center and near Tamil Nadu and north Sri Lanka coast. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction models predictions, it is expected to remain in phase 5 during next four days. The phase 5 is favorable for intensification.

The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N and hence helps in westward movement of the system. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is increased during last 6 hours and presently between 10-15 knots around the system center today.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

6 HRS: 12.0S 82.3E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.0N 81.5E - 60-65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.0N 78.6E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.0N 75.8E - 25 knots (Depression)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
378. HadesGodWyvern
01:44 AM GMT del 29 Dicembre 2011
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #41
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
11:00 AM EST December 29 2011
===================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (1001 hPa) located at 14.4S 139.2E, or 250 km west southwest of Cape Keerweer and 350 km southwest of Weipa has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/1.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant will continue moving east towards the west coast of Cape York Peninsula as a monsoon low.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is now current for Heavy Rainfall, Damaging Wind Gusts and Abnormally High Tides for areas north of Karumba to Cardwell.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

The Cyclone WATCH from Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 14.3S 140.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 14.4S 142.4E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 14.6S 146.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 15.0S 150.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=====================

Dvorak analysis was not possible, though a FT of 1.0 was applied based on nearby surface observations.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant is situated in a moderately sheared environment with CIMMS indicating approximately 15-25 knots of shear across the system. The low level centre is now visible on satellite imagery and most of the convection now appears to be well removed from the centre.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant will continue to move east towards the west coast of Cape York Peninsula under the influence of an upper trough moving across eastern Australia. Redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is now deemed a low chance due to a combination of shear created by the upper trough and dry air affecting the system from the south.

There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it re-intensifies.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
377. HadesGodWyvern
12:57 AM GMT del 29 Dicembre 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20112012
4:00 AM RET December 29 2011
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04 (999 hPa) located at 12.2S 86.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================

90 NM radius from the center extending up to 180 NM in the southwestern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 12.2S 84.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 12.3S 82.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 13.4S 78.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 15.6S 75.8E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

The low level circulation is still on the eastern border of the cloud mass of deep convection. Lower levels supply is currently good on the two faces of the system. However, system is still undergoing a moderate upper level east vertical wind shear. The upper levels constraint should progressively weaken within the next 36-48 hours. At 48 hours, an upper outflow channel should set up poleward, a second outflow should temporarily set up equatorward on Saturday and Sunday. Intensification should also remain moderate within the next 48 hours but shold heighten beyond. At the end of the forecast range (beginning of next week) upper levels environmental conditions should become less favorable (strengtening of the upper level wind shear).

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a west track over the northern periphery of the subtropical high pressures of low and mid-troposphere, then more southwest track under the combined effect of the weakening of the subtropical high pressures of low troposphere at the arrival of a trough in the south.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Depression 04 will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
376. HadesGodWyvern
12:33 AM GMT del 29 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
2:30 AM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 18:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays centered near 12.5N 83.5E, about 350 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 500 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around Friday morning. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -84C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.5N to 15.0N and 81.0E to 85.7E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with a central pressure of 980 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
375. HadesGodWyvern
12:28 AM GMT del 29 Dicembre 2011
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F
9:00 AM FST December 29 2011
===================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1002 hPa) located at 17.1S 168.9W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared and visible imagery with animation and latest ASCAT pass. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has not improved significantly and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 850 HPA. The system lies under an upper diffluent region and highly sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastward with little intensification.

The potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is LOW.


Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
374. HadesGodWyvern
10:40 PM GMT del 28 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
23:30 PM IST December 28 2011
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lays centered near 12.5N 84.0E, about 400 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 520 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 950 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Islands).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around Friday morning. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, The Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The system shows regular central dense overcast pattern. The lowest cloud top temperature is -84C. Associated intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 15.0N and between 81.0E to 86.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with a central pressure of 980 hPa. The stste of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

6 HRS: 12.5N 83.2E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.5N 82.4E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
30 HRS: 12.5N 80.3E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
54 HRS: 12.5N 77.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
373. HadesGodWyvern
07:23 PM GMT del 28 Dicembre 2011
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #40
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
5:00 AM CST December 29 2011
===================================

At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (998 hPa) located at 14.4S 138.0E, or 180 km east southeast of Alyangula and 285 km north northwest of Mornington Island. The low is reported as moving east at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Ex-tropical cyclone Grant is located in the Gulf of Carpentaria and is expected to continue moving steadily east, and may redevelop into a tropical cyclone on Friday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas of Queensland in the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later.

HEAVY RAIN potentially leading to flooding is expected to develop across the Peninsula and northern parts of the Gulf Country districts in Queensland during Thursday and Friday.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Thursday Island and Mornington Island in Queensland. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along the foreshore.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth in Queensland.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 14.3S 139.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 14.1S 140.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 14.1S 143.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 14.2S 147.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=====================

Position poor primarily based on surface observations. System lies in a moderately sheared environment of 15-30 kt. LLCC exposed with deep convection displaced to the southeast. Due to the presence of a mid level trough, shear is expected to remain at least at moderate levels throughout the systems presence in the Gulf of Carpentaria. As such, the development rate of this system is expected to be slow with only a slight chance of redevelopment into a cyclone prior to crossing the coast of Cape York Peninsula.

The system is expected to move steadily to the east under the influence of the mid level trough and strong W steering in an increasing monsoon flow to the north.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
372. HadesGodWyvern
06:58 PM GMT del 28 Dicembre 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20112012
22:00 PM RET December 28 2011
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 04 (999 hPa) located at 12.0S 87.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.5/18 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================

90 NM radius from the center extending up to 150 NM in the southwestern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 12.2S 85.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 12.5S 83.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 13.4S 79.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.9S 76.0E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

The cloud pattern of the disturbance has little changed, the low level circulation is still on the eastern border of the cloud mass of deep convection. The low level flow pattern seems to be rather ill-defined. (CF SSMIS 37ghz at 14:00 PM UTC). Lower levels supply is currently good on the two faces of the system. However, system is still undergoing a moderate upper level east vertical wind shear.

The upper level constraint should progressively weaken within the next 36-48 hours. At 48 hours, an upper outflow channel should set up poleward. A second upper outflow should temporarily set up equatorward on Saturday and Sunday. Intensification should also remain moderate within the next 36 hours, but should heighten beyond. At the end of the forecast range (beginning of next week) upper level environmental conditions should become less favorable (strengthening of the upper level wind shear).

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a west to southwestward track over the northern periphery of the subtropical high pressure and low and mid-troposphere.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Depression 04 will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
371. HadesGodWyvern
06:46 PM GMT del 28 Dicembre 2011
ndia Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
20:30 PM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 15:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further westward and lays centered near 12.5N 84.0E, about 400 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 520 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 950 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Islands).

The system is likely to move westwards, intensify further during next 12 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around Friday morning. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The system shows regular central dense overcast pattern. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -86C. Associated intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 15.0N and 80.5E to 86.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with a central pressure of 980 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
370. HadesGodWyvern
05:11 PM GMT del 28 Dicembre 2011


© India Meteorological Department
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
369. HadesGodWyvern
04:07 PM GMT del 28 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
17:30 PM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 12:00 PM UTC, The severe cyclonic storm over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further westward and intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane lays centered at 12.5N 84.5E, about 450 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 550 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 900 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island).

The system is likely to move west-westwards, intensify further during next 12 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around Friday morning However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The system shows regular central dense overcast pattern. The lowest cloud top temperature is -86C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 15.0N and between 80.5E to 87.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with a central pressure of 980 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 12.5N 83.8E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.5N 83.1E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.5N 80.3E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.5N 77.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
368. HadesGodWyvern
02:06 PM GMT del 28 Dicembre 2011
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #39
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
11:00 PM CST December 28 2011
===================================

At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (1000 hPa) located at 14.2S 136.5E, or 35 km south southeast of Alyangula and 225 km south of Nhulunbuy. The low is reported as moving east at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Ex-tropical cyclone Grant is located in the Gulf of Carpentaria and is expected to move steadily east, and may redevelop into a tropical cyclone overnight on Thursday or Friday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas of Queensland in the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the eastern Arnhem tonight, including Groote Eylandt. HEAVY RAIN potentially leading to flooding is expected to develop across the Peninsula and northern parts of the Gulf Country districts in Queensland during Thursday and Friday.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt in the Northern Territory and also between Thursday Island and Mornington Island in Queensland. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along the foreshore.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth in Queensland.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 14.0S 138.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 13.9S 141.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 13.7S 144.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================

Position primarily based on surface observations.

The low remains in a moderately sheared environment of 15-25 kt to the SE. Deep convection associated with this system has been displaced well away from the LLCC, which is near the coast. Due to the presence of a mid level trough, shear is expected to remain at least at moderate levels throughout the systems presence in the Gulf of Caprentaria. As such, the development rate of this system is forecast to be slower than the standard rate. This means that TC development could occur in the eastern Gulf of Caprentaria after two nights over warm waters.

Dry air is also evident to the west of the system as indicated in water vapor imagery and the Darwin sounding at 27/23Z. The Gove sounding north of the system at the equivalent time indicates a relatively deep, moist environment.

The system is expected to move steadily to the east under the influence of the mid level trough and strong W steering to the north.

An alternative scenario is that sheer dominates the system and a monsoonal low structure develops. This is a feature of a number of models.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
367. HadesGodWyvern
01:59 PM GMT del 28 Dicembre 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 04-20112012
16:00 PM RET December 28 2011
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 04 (1000 hPa) located at 12.2S 88.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 12.0S 86.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 12.4S 84.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 13.3S 79.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.6S 76.5E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

The cloud pattern of the disturbance has little changed within the last 6 hours. The low level circulation is still on the eastern border of the cloud mass of deep convection. The low level circulation center has been relocated at 0600 UTC (corrective position at 0600 UTC: near 12.3S 89.9E). The low level circulation center has slowed down. The low level flow pattern seems to be rather ill-defined (CF. TRMM 37ghz at 9:31 UTC). The lower levels supply is currently good on the two faces of the system. Energetic potential is good. System is still undergoing a moderate upper level shear. The upper levels constraint should progressively weaken within the next 36-48 hours. At 48 hours, the upper outflow channel should set up poleward. A second outflow should temporarily set up equatorward on Saturday and Sunday. Intensification should also remain moderate within the next 36 hours, but should heighten beyond. At the end of the forecast range (beginning of next week) upper level environmental conditions should become less favorable (strengthening of the upper level wind shear). Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a west to southwest track over the northern periphery of the subtropical high pressures of low ad mid-troposphere.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Disturbance 04 will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
366. HadesGodWyvern
01:48 PM GMT del 28 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
14:30 PM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Severe Cyclonic Storm THANE Over Southwest And Adjoining Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 9:00 AM UTC, The cyclonic storm over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and intensified into a severe cyclonic storm. Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane lays centered near 12.5N 85.0E, about 500 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 600 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 800 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify further during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Sriharikota, close to south of Chennai around Friday morning.

However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -86C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 14.5N and between 81.0E to 87.0E. Convection shows central dense overcast pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with a central pressure of 984 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system center.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 12.5N 84.3E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.5N 83.6E - 60-65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.5N 80.4E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.7N 78.1E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
365. HadesGodWyvern
08:54 AM GMT del 28 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
11:30 AM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest And Adjoining Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 6:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lays centered at 12.5N 85.0E, about 500 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 600 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 800 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify further during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Nellore, close to south of Chennai around Friday morning. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -79C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 14.0N and 81.0E to 87.5E. Convection shows increase in organization which may lesd to central dense overcast pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near is 45 knots with a central pressure of 986 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system center.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 12.5N 84.3E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.7N 83.7E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.8N 81.3E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.7N 78.5E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
364. HadesGodWyvern
08:34 AM GMT del 28 Dicembre 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 04-20112012
10:00 AM RET December 28 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 04 (1000 hPa) located at 12.2S 89.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 12.2S 87.4E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 12.5S 85.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 13.0S 80.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.1S 76.9E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Convection persists and moved closer from the center since yesterday (1300z). System is undergoing a moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Low level circulation center has accelerated westward within the last few hours.

Lower level environmental conditions are favorable. Upper level conditions should improve within the next 48 hours. Upper level wind shear should weaken progressively. Beyond 48 hours, and upper level outflow channel should set up poleward. Intensification should remain moderate within the next 48 hours and accelerate beyond 48 hours. Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a west to southwestward track over the northern edge of the subtropical high pressure of low and mid-troposphere.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Disturbance 04 will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
363. HadesGodWyvern
07:43 AM GMT del 28 Dicembre 2011
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #38
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
5:00 PM CST December 28 2011
===================================

At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (1000 hPa) located at 14.1S 135.9E, or 60 km west southwest of Alyangula and 235 km south southwest of Nhulunbuy. The low is reported as moving east at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Ex-tropical cyclone Grant is near the coast and expected to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria tonight. The system is then expected to move steadily east, across the Gulf of Carpentaria and may redevelop into a tropical cyclone overnight on Thursday or Friday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas of Queensland in the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the eastern Arnhem and eastern Roper-McArthur Districts of the Northern Territory, including Groote Eylandt tonight and Thursday. HEAVY RAIN potentially leading to flooding is expected to develop across the Peninsula and northern parts of the Gulf Country districts in Queensland during Thursday and Friday.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt in the Northern Territory and also between Thursday Island and Mornington Island in Queensland. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along the foreshore.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth in Queensland

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 14.0S 138.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 13.9S 141.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 13.7S 144.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================

Position primarily based on surface observations.

The low remains in a moderately sheared environment of 15-25 kt to the SE. Deep convection associated with this system has been displaced well away from the LLCC, which is near the coast. Due to the presence of a mid level trough, shear is expected to remain at least at moderate levels throughout the systems presence in the Gulf of Caprentaria. As such, the development rate of this system is forecast to be slower than the standard rate. This means that TC development could occur in the eastern Gulf of Caprentaria after two nights over warm waters.

Dry air is also evident to the west of the system as indicated in water vapor imagery and the Darwin sounding at 27/23Z. The Gove sounding north of the system at the equivalent time indicates a relatively deep, moist environment.

The system is expected to move steadily to the east under the influence of the mid level trough and strong W steering to the north.

An alternative scenario is that sheer dominates the system and a monsoonal low structure develops. This is a feature of a number of models.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
362. HadesGodWyvern
06:54 AM GMT del 28 Dicembre 2011
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
2:00 PM WST December 28 2011
=========================

At midday WST a tropical low was located near 11S 091E and is moving slowly westward. The low is expected to move west of 090E, outside of the Western Region later on Wednesday. It is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone while in the Western Region.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Thursday: Very Low
Friday: Very Low
Saturday: Very Low
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
361. HadesGodWyvern
06:50 AM GMT del 28 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
8:30 AM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest And Adjoining Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Alert for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 3:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lays centered near 12.5N 85.5E, or about 550 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 600 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 750 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify further during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Nellore, close to south of Chennai around Friday morning.

However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -85C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 14.0N and 81.0E to 88.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with a central pressure of 987 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system center.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 12.5N 85.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.7N 84.3E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.8N 81.7E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.7N 78.9E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46301
360. HadesGodWyvern
02:55 AM GMT del 28 Dicembre 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
5:30 AM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest And Adjoining Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Alert for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Yellow Message

At 0:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lays centered near 12.5N 86.0E, about 600 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 650 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 700 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards slowly, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Nellore around Friday morning.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -85C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 8.0N to 15.0N and 81.0E to 88.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with a central pressure of 992 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system center.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 27-28C over the region. It is relatively less towards Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coast becoming 26-27C. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is 50-80 kj/cm2 to the west and west northwest of system and less than 50 kj/cm2 near Tamil Nadu and north Sri Lanka. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to remain in phase 5 during the next five days. The phase 5 is favorable for intensification as per out past studies. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence helps in west northwestward movement of the low level convergence as well as upper divergence does not show any change during past 6 hours. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA level is low. There is a slight decrease in wind shear during past 24 hours.

Considering the numerical weather prediction model guidance, most of the models suggest the intensification of the system. However, they suggest slight weakening before landfall. With respect to track, most of the models suggest west northwestward then westward movement, synoptic conditions also in agreement.
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