Currently No Tropical Cyclones

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #36
DEPRESSION, FORMER THANE (BOB05-2011)
17:30 PM IST December 30 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over North Tamil Nadu.

At 12:00 PM UTC, The deep depression moved west- southwestward weakened into a depression. Depression, Former Thane lays centered over north Tamil Nadu close to Salem.

The system is likely to move westwards and weaken further into a low pressure area during next 12 hours.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE BENILDE (04-20112012)
22:00 PM RET December 30 2011
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Benilde (984 hPa) located at 13.8S 77.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center extending up to 140 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM from the center extending up to 230 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 14.6S 76.4E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 15.5S 75.3E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 17.9S 74.2E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 20.2S 72.9E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

Benilde intensifies again and shows temporarily an eye on METEOSAT 7 infrared imagery from 1500z to 1630z. Instantaneous Dvorak analysis has consequently fluctuated within the last 6 hours and mentioned intensity for this fix is an average over this period. Wind extension has been recalibrated thanks to 1645z ASCAT swath. Deterministic numerical weather prediction models are globally in good agreement to forecast a southwestward track within the next 72 hours under the combined steering influence of a mid level ridge existing east of the system and polar trough transiting in the south. Multi-ensembled numerical weather prediction models (EPS, GEFS and PEARP) plumes show low dispersion and converge also to this scenario. There is some discrepencies about chronology between deterministic numerical weather prediction models. ECMWF one is faster than ARPEGE, GFS and the American consensus ones.

Beyond 72 hours, system is expected to rapidly weaken over marginal heat oceanic content south of 20.0S and strengthening westerly wind shear. Multi-ensemble suggest then more dispersion between the members.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
9:00 AM FST December 31 2011
================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1005 hPa) located at 21.0S 157.0W is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on visible and multispectral infrared. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization has not improved significantly and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 700 HPA. The system lies under an upper diffluent region and highly sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastward with little intensification.

Potential for this tropical depression to develop into a tropical cyclone is the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
CYCLONE TROPICAL BENILDE (04-20112012)
4:00 AM RET December 31 2011
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Benilde (980 hPa) located at 14.3S 77.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 140 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
100 NM from the center extending up to 230 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 15.2S 76.2E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 16.0S 75.5E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 18.1S 74.9E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 19.2S 74.3E - 75 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

Benilde keeps on intensifying and shows now an eye on METEOSAT 7 infrared imagery. Deterministic numerical weather prediction models are globally in good agreement to forecast a southwestward track within the next 60 hours under the combined steering influence of a mid-level ridge existing east of the system and a polar trough transiting in the south.

Multi-ensemble numerical weather prediction models (EPS, GFS, and PEARP) plumes show low dispersion at short range and converge also to this scenario. Some deterministic numerical weather prediction models however suggest different options, GFDN forecast a more zonal track and UKMO forecast a clearly southeastward recurve track and after 24-36 hours. For the next 72 hours, RSMC forecast track remains close to an average between ECMWF, NOGAPS, and APEGE. On and after 72 hours, A mid-level ridge is rebuilding in the southwest and should force Benilde to slow down its southwestward track. It should then make a loop right-hand before evacuating towards the southeast in the wake of the polar trough.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER THANE (BOB05-2011)
5:30 AM IST December 31 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Depression Weakened Into Well Marked Low Pressure Area

At 0:00 AM UTC, The depression over north Tamil Nadu close to Salem moved westwards and weakened further into well marked low pressure area over north Kerala and neighborhood.

This is the last bulletin for 'THANE'

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONE TROPICAL BENILDE (04-20112012)
10:00 AM RET December 31 2011
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Benilde (973 hPa) located at 14.8S 76.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
20 NM radius from the center


Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
70 nm radius from the center extending up to 80 NM from the center in the northwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle


Near Gale Force Winds
======================
100 NM radius from the center extending up to 150 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 15.6S 75.7E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 16.5S 74.2E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 18.5S 74.6E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 19.3E 73.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempete Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Benilde shows now a 40 NM wide eye that tends to become more circular on the last infrared imagery. Present intensity analysis is based on manual Dvorak estimate with an average DT number at 4.8 and 4.7 respectively for a 3-6 hours average. ADT is at 4.5 (CI) but seems to struggle to find the center. Latest determinisitic numerical weather prediction models remain globally in good agreement to forecast a southward track within the next 48 hours under the combined steering influence of a mid-level ridge existing east of the system and a polar trough transiting in the south.

Multi-ensemble numerical weather prediction modes (EPS, GEFS, and PEARP) plumes show low dispersion at short range and converge also to this scenario. For the next 48-60 hours, RSMC forecast track remains close to an average between ECMWF, NOGAPS, and ARPEGE. Beyond that time, a mid level ridge is rebuilding in the southwest and should force Benilde to slow down its southwestward track. It should then make a loop right hand before evacuating towards the southeast in the wake of the polar trough. Within this slowdown and recurve motion, system is expected to rapidly weaken over marginal heat oceanic content south of 20.0S and strengthen westerly wind shear. Multi-emsemble suggest more dispersion between the members at this time range of the forecast.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
CYCLONE TROPICAL BENILDE (04-20112012)
16:00 PM RET December 31 2011
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Benilde (968 hPa) located at 15.4S 76.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
35 NM radius from the center


Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 80 NM from the center in the northwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
110 NM radius from the center extending up to 160-180 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 16.2S 75.4E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 17.2S 75.0E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 19.2S 74.2E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 19.6E 73.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempete Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Eye pattern is still going on. After an excellent presentation between 730 - 830 AM UTC with a raw T number at 6.0, the cloud pattern slightly since that time with a slightly less defined eye. Present intensity analysis at 80 knots is based on manual Dvorak estimate with an average DT number at 5.2 for a 3-6 hours average on line with estimates from PGTW and KNES. ADT is too low at 4.1 at 1130 UTC (CI). However, from time to time the eye is well seen and raw T number topped around 5.5 (6.1 at 1100 AM UTC). A mid level ridge, located to the east of the system, is steering the system gradually on a poleward track towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge. However, Benilde should not have the time to move out of the tropical area in this weakness. All available guidance suggest that the poleward track should stop between Monday morning and Tuesday morning as a low to mid level ridge should build from the southwest, It remains some uncertainity from this time range of the forecast track, but latest numerical outputs depict a slower motion and a westward to northwestward turn. This is reflected in the current track forecast. Environmental conditions are good with a low shear (3.6 m/s from east northeast according shear and alysis), excellent divergence aloft depicted by a very nice cirrus outflow and warm sea surface temperature in the 28C range. On its poleward track, Benilde should gradually encounter cooler sea surface temperatures and stronger westerly shear. After a max intensity that should be reached within the next 24 hours, the system should weaken.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM JST December 31 2011
===============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 5.0N 104.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
18:00 PM FST December 31 2011
==========================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1004 hPa) located at 21.0S 157.0W is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization has not improved significantly and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 700 HPA. The system lies under an upper diffluent region and highly sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastward with little intensification.

Potential for this tropical depression to develop into a tropical cyclone is the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
CYCLONE TROPICAL BENILDE (04-20112012)
22:00 PM RET December 31 2011
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Benilde (968 hPa) located at 16.0S 75.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/S.0.0/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
35 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 80 NM from the center in the northwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
110 NM radius from the center extending up to 160-180 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 17.0S 75.1E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 17.9S 74.7E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 19.4S 74.1E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 19.6E 73.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempete Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

For the last 6 hours, system intensity is stationary. Present intensity analysis at 80 kt is based on manual Dvorak estimate with an average DT number at 5.1 for a 3 hours and 6 hours average. Since 1400 PM UTC, ADT is between 5.1 and 5.5. A mid level ridge, located to the east of the system, is steering the system on a south-westward then south-southwestward track towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge. However, Benilde should not have the time to move out of the tropical area in this weakness. All available guidance suggest that the meridian track should stop between monday morning and tuesday morning as a low to mid-level ridge should build from the southwest.

It remains some uncertainty about the exact track of the system at this time range of the forecast track, but latest numerical outputs depict a slower motion and a westward to north-westward recurvature. The official current track forecast reflects this scenario. Environmental conditions are good with a weak north-easterly windshear (10 kt according shear CIMSS analysis), excellent divergence aloft depicted by a very well cirrus outflow and warm sea surface temperatures in the 28C range. On its meridian track, Benilde should gradually encounter cooler sst and stronger westerly windshear. After a maximum that should be reached within the next 24 hours, system intensity should weaken.